Saw 60 Minutes last night, as they discussed the massive fiscal bloodletting of Internet companies, as one after another screams down from the firmament to crater. Impact varies according to monetary mass multiplied by velocity of fall (We’re immortal, we’re ok, we’re not very well, we’re terminal, we’re taking the dirt nap, 10 seconds flat).
“And there shall be great weeping, and rending of portfolio”
My take: we’ll be lucky if there is any internet at all to go to, as the majority of the support was advertising, the majority of that advertising from other dot.com’s. Jeeves is on life support, Yahoo is very feverish indeed. The SDMB itself might be in peril! (Say it ain’t so, Cece!) Java programmers shivering in the snow, holding signs saying “Will code for food”
Might the Internet become a PBS type ward of the public?
Try to imagine! “It’s pledge week here at SD! For a one hundred dollar membership you recieve one pair of Cecil’s shorts, two hundred with authenticated stains, …”
A) The Internet has been around for 30 years. It ain’t going to go away.
B) People actually spending money while on the internet? I doubt that will replace shopping in real stores to enough of a degree to make the internet shopping portals anything more than a respite for those script weary 1-800 operators.
C) Yeah, lots of hype around for a long while. What took 60 minutes so long?
Although alot of the “dot-com” companies that provide business-to-consumer sites have been going out of business, that does not mean that there isn’t money still to be made from the internet.
I’ve noticed, at least in my office, that there has been alot of growth in business-to-business sites. So I suspect that we’re still a long way from Java programmers begging for food (PERL programmers, on the other hand…)
Heck, I thought it was interesting when it was all text-driven (pre-mosaic, netscape, etc). This is just a thinning of the herd. It’s essence as a great knowledge database and communication center hasn’t really been harmed because of the dot com failures as far as I know.
I wonder - how many of the dot coms that advertised during last year’s superbowl (your IPO dollars at work) are still standing?
Might the Internet become a PBS type ward of the public?
Does it matter? The internet BEGAN as a PBS-type ward of the public! The military still needs a decentralized information network. College professors and grad students still want to be able to converse with colleagues on the other side of the country. Corporate executives still need to read their employers memos instantly. Dirty old men still want cheap porn.
Maybe the dotcom bubble has burst, but there are still plenty of people who need fast communication. The internet will survive.
Most of those dot.coms were probably built just to get reputable enough to sell stocks. If you remember last year any dot.com was rising no matter what its potential.
I’ll tell you one thing – Internet companies have to make some changes if they want to be profitable.
Let me give you a very recent example.
I ordered three items from Amazon/ToysRUs.com (they combined, in case you didn’t know) – a videotape and two kiddie “bath” books (little waterproof things). They said all would be sent within 2-3 days. Fine. No biggie.
Then, 3 days after I ordered, they shipped the tape. Alone. Two days later, they shipped ONE of the books. Alone. They have not shipped the 3rd one yet.
Because I did not ask them to ship separately, they are paying for the extra shipping costs. In the case of the books, I’m sure that shipping cost will outweigh any profit they are making on the item (we’re talking something that was $5.99 here; already a buck cheaper than at the store).
How the hell do they expect to make money operating like that?
This is now the 20th consecutive year in which 60 Minutes has demonstrated to me that it is basically a tabloid with only the most tenuous grasp of any facts.
It’s interesting that their “report” came out this weekend. Over the same weekend, Dan Fost of the San Francisco Chronicle had an article out on the newswires (so I’m not sure if it made it to the net), on the same topic. He quotes a speech/lecture by Michael Tchong (apparently an evangelist for Web money, and so, possibly suspect) that indicates the Web is stronger than ever.
Mr. Tchong’s zeal may cast doubt on his general accuracy, but he presented some numbers that should be addressed before we start tolling the death knell for dot/com:
1,793 corporate fundings vs 130 deaths (“fundings” was not defined)
2.3 million people currently employed by internet companies (University of Texas figures)
31,056 job cuts (according to Challenger, Gray, and Christmas) out of 2.3 million employed: any other industry with that low a percentage?
$60 billion in 1999 venture capital
$80 billion in 2000 venture capital (through 3d quarter)
According to Tchong, of that $80 billion, more of it is directed toward infrastructure and less toward start-ups–a sign that the industry is maturing.
“Com forth, sire Hoost, and offre first anon,
And thou shalt kisse my relikes everychon,
Ye, for a grote, unbokele anon thy purs.-”
“Nay, nay,” quod he, “thanne have I Cristes curs!
Lat be, quod he, it shal nat be, so theech,
Thou woldest make me kisse thyn olde breech,
And swere it were a relyk of a seint,
Though it were with thy fundement depeint.”
-Geoffrey Chaucer, “The Pardoner’s Tale”, The Canterbury Tales, 29:481-488.
The “dot-coms” that are so dramatically tanking are invariably businesses that were set up on the Web and nowhere else. Even if all of them went bankrupt, that still leaves the .com sites which are connected with companies already established in the real world (retail stores, mail-order catalogs, and so on). Plenty of advertising dollars there, and some of those companies are actually showing a profit.
Before the World Wide Web came along, there was little advertising on the Internet anyway. If advertising dollars become scarcer, doubtless the Internet will adapt. That’s what it does best, adapt.
There was a guy here who used a net site special in '99 where if you bought $20 of stuff, you would get $20 cash back. He went to ten neighbors houses & used it. No wonder some of the net sites don’t make a lot of dough.
Most of the big ones are finding out the only way to make it on the net is to do it like a real business. Also, the big stores, Macys, Etc, are now using the web & they are swallowing up the smaller dot coms.
Some odds guy said that the chances of making $1M with a regular business are 1 in 1000 but using the net, 1 in 10,000.