Forget the big picture. Let’s go with the Cinerama-size picture. Here’s a list of the most recent edition of the Fortune 500 – the 500 largest companies in the US.
The oldest company on the Fortune 500 list is the Bank of New York (#294), which was founded in the 1700s. Which makes me wonder: which of today’s biggest companies will be around in 500 years?
For easy thread reference, here are the top 10, along with their 2003 revenue in billions of dollars:
- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – $258.681
- Exxon Mobil Corp. – $213.199
- General Motors Corp. – $195.645
- Ford Motor Co. – $164.496
- General Electric Co. – $134.187
- ChevronTexaco Corp. – $112.937
- ConocoPhillips – $99.468
- Citigroup Inc. – $94.713
- International Business Machines Corp. – $89.131
- American International Group, Inc. – $81.300
500 years is a long, long, long time. I find it hard to believe that any of these top 10 companies will be significant business forces at that time, at least not without major changes in their business. Will we still have cars in 500 years? Then maybe GM and Ford have a shot, unless some other company comes along with something better in the meantime.
Wal-Mart might make it. Maybe not still #1, but it could be around.
But given that the oldest company on the list is a bank, it seems to me that those old reliable industries have the best shot – banks and insurance companies.
Really, though, I’m not a futurist and I’m not an econ major, so I’m talking out of my hat. Who do you think will survive and thrive over the next half millennium? Which companies that are too small to make the Fortune 500 today will be big players at the time (if there are any)?