Sorry - was comparing 1969 rates for a 152 with current rates for a 172.
So the factor of increase should have been 6.8 times. Talk about apples and oranges!
As I said, I rented dad’s Skyhawk at-cost. Considering fuel, percentage of overhaul, percentage of other maintenance, insurance, tie-down, etc., that was $33/hour in the mid-1980s. IIRC, the normal rental rate was $50/hour.
I have a copy of The Cessna 172 that lists the purchase prices of Cessna 172s and Skyhawks from the first year of production to 1987. When I have time I’m going to make a spreadsheet and line graph. Just going on casual impressions, I think the prices for a new aircraft were steady and moderate for a very long time. Like, $10,000 this year, $11,500 the following year, $12,800 the next year, and so on. Now, a new Cessna 172 Skyhawk costs over $300,000. I really want to graph the curve.
I understand that the primary reason for the catastrophic increase in lightplane cost is liability insurance. And the sole cause for this is the decision of the legal system (lawyers, juries, and judges all operating in tandem) that an aircraft company is liable if anything breaks on their airplane, even one that was manufactured in 1950 and has flown for 60 years without a problem. This has just about killed the lightplane business.
I heard that at one time, half the price of a new aircraft was the insurance premium. There was a case where a family was awarded $40 million after a crash. I don’t know how much of that was paid by Cessna, and how much was paid by Lycoming. Here’s the joke: The airplane did everything it was supposed to, and the NTSB determined that there was nothing wrong with the engine. But they were found at-fault anyway by a non-aviation jury. The reason for the crash was that the pilot and his wife – both flight instructors, IIRC – flew into a thunderstorm. They knew better, or should have known better, than to do that. Any competent pilot would stay on the ground in that kind of weather.
Judgments like this induced Cessna to stop making single-engine piston-engine airplanes for a decade.
And you’re right; manufacturers were responsible ‘forever’. Theoretically, they could have been held accountable for not putting on the latest and greatest anti-corrosion coatings, which didn’t exist when the airplane was built 60 or 70 years before. Things have changed, though. The General Aviation Revitalization Act was passed in 1994, which limited liability to 18 years. Cessna got back into the game after that.
But the damage was done. In the late-1970s aircraft production reached more than 15,000 airplanes per year. After the insurance/insane lawsuit period, 2,000 new aircraft was considered a banner year. With fewer new airplanes being built, prices for used ones went sky-high. Which reduced demand. Now there’s a generation of people who haven’t even considered taking up flying, so that adds to the lack of demand.
Of course avionics are much more capable nowadays – and much more expensive. I’ve been told that the cost of a single Garmin 1000 is $50,000, and they aren’t for sale except to manufacturers. Cessna uses two of them in their airplanes. But I object to $300,000 for a Skyhawk. Skyhawks first flew in 1956, and they haven’t changed all that much since the '70s. Even with the cost of new avionics, the airframe shouldn’t cost that much.
What sort of figures are there in terms of the number of licensed pilots in the United States right now? And is there data available for the number of new GA aircraft sold each year?
According to the FAA, there were 594,285 active pilots in the U.S. in 2009. (Link to available tables. Table 1, where I got the number is an Excel file.) I want to say that when I got my first license in 1985 there were something like 750,000 active pilots, but I don’t remember for sure. I believe ‘active’ means the pilot holds a valid medical certificate.
I’m sure there are figures on the number of GA airplanes produced, but I don’t have them at-hand.
Active means “holds a medical certificate” for the most part, though depending on who you ask there might be a slightly different definition.
Remember that at any given time there are thousands of pilots such as myself, who have a lapsed medical but could still get back in the game in the future, or who fly things like ultralights, sport planes, and gliders that don’t require a class III or higher medical so going strictly by who holds a medical may undercounts both those flying things that don’t require a medical certificate as well as undercounting the total number of licensed pilots (which latter number still does not include many ultralight flyers).
Lots of graphs and stats on the link. Note that General Aviation includes business aircraft such as small turboprops and business jets, as well as ‘private planes’ (i.e., the planes we generally rent from FBOs) and helicopters. I assume that every aircraft built is sold.
From my previous link:
Thanks for the info, Johnny. So, two things:
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For people like Johnny and Broomstick and others who have gone on hiatus from flying, what was the reason you stopped? And did it take or will it take for you to get back in the saddle?
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Oh, hell. I’m gonna try to schedule one more lesson for this week. But this is the last one I’ll be able to afford this year, methinks.
I don’t remember exactly what was going on. Probably money, as helicopters are expensive. I was getting ready to fly again after about a year off when some dingbats flew some planes into some buildings. U.S. airspace was immediately closed. And it remained closed for a long while. L.A. airspace stayed closed longer than the rest of the country, or at least it was one of the last regions opened to private pilots. I lived under the traffic pattern to SMO, and I can tell you it was eerie not having planes to look at. There were layoffs at work due to the damaged economy and outsourcing to the fittingly-named Indian company Tata. Between the long intervals of non-flying and enforced non-flying, the bad economy, and worry about losing my job, flying took a back seat.
Then I decided to buy a house – which I did, up here in Washington. Just before it closed in Autumn of 2003, I was hit in yet another round of layoffs. So there I was with a mortgage and no job in a new state. It took three years before I had steady work. Mom’s husband died in 2004, and mom died in 2005. It’s only now, over a decade after my last flight in a helicopter, that my situation is such that I can start flying again – albeit in an airplane instead of a helicopter.
In retrospect, I should not have let Life intervene before 09/11/2001, and I should have got back into the air as soon as the airspace was reopened. Not much I could do about being jobless, since I was doing all I could already. But it was time I pissed away that I’ll not be getting back.
When I was a senior in high school, I somehow got connected up with this guy who owned a flying school at Van Nuys. A few times a week, I went there in the afternoon (after MY school) to clean up the place, make sure the bathrooms had TP, dust the counter-tops, stuff like that. He gave my flying lessons in return for that. I got in a little flying time with Civil Air Patrol too.
Then there was a news article I saw a few years ago – Seems a “economically disadvantaged” black kid somewhere in or around Pacoima hung around Whiteman Field, washing airplanes and whatnot for a school, and got his license doing that. IIRC, this was also news because he flew solo to Canada and back. ETA: Just searched google for this, sorry, can’t find it.
Lonely aviation buff ISO friend or lover for good times and shared flying fun.
Must have license, current medical certificate, and airplane. Airworthiness
certificate required (and one for the airplane too). If interested, send
picture of airplane.
(Sorry, I couldn’t resist.)
I stopped flying because I lost my job and no longer had sufficient income for such luxuries. It’s four years later and I’m still struggling to pay the rent, and have just landed my first job that looks permanent as opposed to short-term/temporary in four years.
What would it take to get me flying again? At least quadrupling my current income.
I’ve always been intrigued by ultralights (the two seated powered hang glider version, not the small plane version) and had a fantastic ride in one on vacation.
But while there seem to be groups catering to regular flying, skydiving, paragliding, and whatnot, I can’t seem to find a good resource for taking lessons in ultralight, purchasing, and finding a place to fly them locally (Eastern Long Island).
[Nitpick] While an ultralight trainer can have two seats a legal ultralight vehicle can only have ONE seat. Just to clarify. If it has two seats it’s either a trainer or (these days) a sport airplane. Or a homebuilt experimental. [/Nitpick]
That’s because ultralights are restricted to “uncongested” areas, for the most part rural or wilderness regions. I doubt “Eastern Long Island” qualifies as such.
Try contacting the United States Ultralight Association to help you in locating a school or instructor. You might also be interested in the Experimental Aviation Association. Ultralight Division.
You can either try to locate an ultralight instructor for the type you’re interested in (as you indicated, they come in several flavors) or you could take the Sport Pilot course of instruction for that type (as Sport Pilot and ultralights do overlap to some degree) and either complete that license, which would enable you to fly a properly certified ultralight/sport plane of your choice near where you actually live, or not complete the course and legally fly a legal ultralight out in the boondocks. Given where you live, getting the Sport license might be a more practical course of action so you don’t need an airplane to get to the field where you fly your ultralight. 
Depending on what airspace you live under you still might need to drive a bit to get to suitable airspace for your plane/rating, but it won’t be nearly as far to fly a sport plane as an ultrlaight.
I have read a stack of books about aviation in the Great War. I don’t fly myself- unless it is in a 747.
However, I may be able to contribute an odd fact here and there about that era.
I’m one of the usual suspects in SD aviation threads. Learned to fly about 11 years ago, got a bunch of ratings including flight instructor, and eventually quit my job to teach flying full time. A few months ago I was offered the chance to be first officer in a private jet, and I’ve been having a great time with that.
I also write for the aviation magazines every so often, mostly about training issues. Suggestions about new topics are always welcome!
I’m afraid this applies to me as well.
I started lessons at age 15, splitting a 172 with 4 other friends. Got my license at 17 and built up hours flying to the Bahamas on weekends to dive. I jumped at a chance to buy a MU-2P from a friend’s dad, and leased it to a company running mail for the USPS, which is the only way I could afford it.
I sold it shortly before getting married 22 years ago, and have hardly flown since.
I’m nowhere near current, but I think I might be one of the guys that could land a glass panel 777 if the pilot keeled over and Karen Black needed me!
I’ve got about 4,500 hours fixed, 20 hours rotary, and 30 minutes PIC of a Goodyear blimp!
Mrs. Duc caught me looking at GA porn the other day. I clicked away, but she came storming into my office - “I saw that! You can’t have another plane! Why can’t you look at naked women on the internet instead of planes?” 
While I don’t fly much anymore, I do keep up with things and know more than the average bear about this flying nonsense.
I would love to get an ultralight, or even one of these new-fangled Light Sport just to get some wind in my hair again.
[sigh]
I had to give up my plane last summer, 
I am now a “routine earthbound person*”. I still get to fly frequently, and one of my students has given me keys to his airplane, with the assurance that I can use it as much as I want (I just have to fill the tanks when I’m done).
As a part time instructor, I’m barely getting about 100 hours per year. But I count myself lucky as many pilots are getting far less in this economy.
[Parental bragging] As I’ve posted in several threads, I taught my son to fly. This summer he completed his Commercial and all three CFI ratings (CFI-A, CFII, MEI). He’s now working in the northeast as a flight instructor. I’m sorta envious as he’s averaging about 80 hours per month. (Most of it multi) [/Parental bragging]
*soundbite from an old Beech Aero Center ground school video advising how to deal with passengers.