The Great Ongoing Aviation Thread (general and other)

That’s the first, and immediate, thing I thought of.

Ugh. Never say “never” in a situation like this. When it happens again, or something like it, your credibility is shot (if indeed you have any left).

And see: https://www.cnn.com/business/boeing-737-max/index.html

TL; DR– I have flight on Alaska next Weds. I expect that contacting them is very hard right now and I’d like to know if they will cover my change/refund fees.

As mentioned previously I have a flight on a 737 MAX 9 on Alaska Airlines on Jan. 17th. I check periodically on the Alaska site to see if there is any information or updates on my flight. Nothing yet.

I have just seen info that Alaska Airlines (AS) will cancel all flights on affected 737 Max 9 flights through Saturday (Jan 13). And I wonder…. How long will this take and might it affect my flight? Alaska has said in earlier statements that it will wave change fees for customers wanting to change from a 737 Max 9 flight but when I checked out details it isn’t clear how long into the future this applies.

I’m not going to even try to email them to clarify because they’re getting a shit-ton of traffic right now. Alaska asks that one try to make changes online. I could go to my reservation and change it online BUT without knowing if I am “covered” it’s possible I could do the changes just to find out they cover it, and then not be able to get my old reservation back. Same situation if I simply asked for a refund.

Oooh… wait. I have a separate (maybe dumb) question. When these articles talk about “loose bolts” do they mean there are bolts lying around on the floor here and there or does it mean that the bolts are in place but are only loosly fastened?

I know Boeing is too big to fail (the DoD will never let them go completely under), but I wonder if we’ll recognize them at all in 5 years. We may have to learn to live in a world without a US-based civilian commercial airliner manufacturer. I believe Boeing is the only one we have.

Your flight will either be flown with a different model jet or cancelled. Go on Alaska’s website ASAP and see which. Call them at offpeak hours to ask which.

Don’t guess. Don’t hope. Know.

Which means the only commercial airplane manufacturer would be Airbus. Without Boeing, Airbus will stagnate.

I agree. The problem is that the DoD has no mechanism to prop up the civilian side of Boeing and it won’t matter if nobody is willing to buy the planes. Frankly, between the on-going issues on the airliner side coupled with the space program stuff, AND the whole “we’re so bad at fixed price we’re not doing them anymore”, if I were the DoD I would begin serious investigations into the quality/cost of what I’m buying from them.

Too big to fail is a pithy saying, but I begin to wonder if Boeing itself will survive. They may just have to sell off the DoD side and go out of business as Boeing.

Thanks for your reply. I’ve been to the website numerous times. When I check my flight everything is normal. There are no changes to anything. But, while they have announced cancelling all flights on affected equipment through Sat. Jan 13, they haven’t said anything about flights after that. And I have seen no indication of when these inspections might even start. (I know they’re waiting on the FAA who I think had to rattle some cages at Boeing)

Calling after hours is a good idea but I can no longer use a phone for business purposes as my hearing (even wearing aids) is not good enough. So, I try to do everything via web.

On the web page now I have the option to change or cancel my flight but my ticket is non-refundable so even though Alaska has said they are allowing free changes/cancellations, they have not made it clear what flights and for how long forward that policy applies (other than to the flights already cancelled).

This leaves me in a bit of a bind. I could try to email them but I fear that like most corporations now they don’t even have a customer service email address (preferring to shunt everyone through automated and endless phone-trees). And with email there is no offpeak hours.

ETA: Laska has this notice on it’s website:

Systemwide flexible travel policy

Due to Boeing 737-9 MAX aircraft inspections and winter weather, we are offering a flexible travel policy if you would like to change or cancel your flight.

If I click on change or cancel it just takes me to the check reservation page. The “flexible travel policy” is here. it includes the following:

Travel To/From: Systemwide
Tickets Purchased On / Before:

No restriction as to when the ticket was issued

Original Travel Dates:

January 6, 2024 - January 13, 2024

New Travel Dates:

January 6, 2024 - January 20, 2024

What does “new/old travel dates” mean??

ETA: and now I see this that wasnt there a day ago:

If desired, alternate aircraft type accommodations are being offered to guests scheduled to fly on a Boeing 737-9 Max between now and January 20, 2024 by calling our Reservation office at 1-800-252-7522 for assistance. If we are unable to find an alternate accommodation, a full refund will be offered.

MAX 9s ain’t coming back by the 13th. You’re riding on something else on time or 4 days later.

I can still, barely, use the phone so I empathize w your problem. Some carriers have chat customer service. I don’t know about Alaska.

Best of luck mi amigo!

The military needs to keep Boeing alive, as does Seattle and Washington state in general. Boing is not going to close down.

The military does have an interest in seeing Boring run well, and so do all the other stakeholders. So in an ideal world, at some point there would be hearings looking into the failures at Boeing - something similar to the Apollo 1 commission. I’d put together CEOs and CTOs from aerospace companies that have proven themselves able to deliver quality products on budget, and have them interview engineers, engineering managers, QA people, test engineers, test pilots, you name it. Set up an anonymous whistleblower line.

They also need thorough software review by some top quality software teams, working with the original developers to understand the code.

Those guys then prepare a report for Congress, and testify in hearings as to what they found. There would have to be protections for some IP, but a list of recommended actions should be discussed and acted on.

That’s in an ideal world. A guy can dream.

In our world, I expect special interests and politics to rule the day. The Republicans will howl that unions and diversity wrecked everything. Democrats will refuse to believe either of those things, and blame something else that their voters don’t like. My guess is the pernacious effect of profits, stock buybacks instead of investment in infrastructure or something. The unions will have their own arguments. In the end, there will be some political compromise that will please no one, Boeing will get a bailout, a slap,on the wrist and a guarantee of future contracts thereby killing the incentive to fix things, and Boeing will limp on.

China has a manufacturer Comac (The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China):

China’s Boeing Alternative Starts to Look Enticing: State-backed Comac hasn’t made much foreign progress, yet. Boeing is helping make the case for a new plane and player.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-08/boeing-alternative-in-china-starts-to-look-enticing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac/

From who? The US military and civilian government combined don’t need enough commercial airliners to keep Boeing’s airliner side open and that’s not something our European allies are going to be pressured on.

The government will save the military side. They have to. But even if it’s still called Boeing, it won’t be the Boeing we know today, it’ll be more like Lockheed Martin (who also used to build civilian airliners, but doesn’t anymore).

I fly out on Jan 17th. How about by then? Not a chance?

So then what happens? Will we United Statians start riding Gulfstreams when they (or Textron or whoever) are gifted all the commercial business that used to go to Boeing? Or is it Airbus for all! at that point?

Lots pf mid-sized commercial jet companies - Embraer, Bombardier, Dassault, Textron. They are all in the regional jet/bizjet industries, but some might step up with larger aircraft if Boeing leaves a hole. Amd someone would be buying up Boeing’s assets.

Some have real capacity. Bombarier has built commercial jets with up to 100 passengers. They’ve built about 1,000 regional jets.

And unless they build a bunch of new factories, Airbus just can’t build enough planes for every airline that needs them. Right now they have such a backlog, if an airline orders new A320s today, they won’t get them until around 2032.

I suppose maybe someone like Embraer could try to take Boeing’s place building bigger jets, but that’s a very expensive, risky undertaking. Bombardier pretty much bankrupted themselves when they tried to do that.

Sure. And there’s a big-sized one, too (Airbus). But I figure the PTB in the US would only allow an American firm to replace Boeing.

Right, because Chinese-made products have a stellar reputation for quality and reliability. Plus, the awe pointsome working conditions that contribute to it all! :roll_eyes:

There may be some point in the distant future when China does make quality products, but that point isn’t now. It’s true that Japan was also once associated with inferior quality, but that was during post-war recovery, and China lacks the culture that led to the Japanese “economic miracle”. If Boeing loses the public trust – and I think they’ll pull themselves out of this current condition – but if they do, the only foreseeable alternative remains Airbus. Plus a smattering of smaller producers of smaller airplanes, like Embraer and Bombardier.

And it must be duly noted that Boeing has now introduced a new entry in the Official Dictionary of Corporate-Speak Bullshit: they are blaming the door-plug blowout on “quality escape”. No, Boeing, the thing that “escaped” was the door plug, in mid-flight. “Quality” is the thing that you don’t have.

Argh … “awesome working conditions” – I think “point” snuck in there while I was typing something else and the Windows focus changed.

Again, I find it hard to believe that our source of tainted baby formula, lead paint in children’s toys, exploding tires, and suicide-prone child labour in electronics factories is either ethically or technologically poised to be a successful maker of state-of-the-art airliners. I suspect Boeing will survive (even if it shouldn’t) and Airbus is doing fine.

Various pundits around the industry have been concerned for 5+ years now that Boeing’s market share might have shrunk to a point where they are in danger of entering a death spiral.

Not because of product defects, but simply that once the current duopoly gets too lopsided, the victor (Airbus) will have such a cost advantage, and so much power over the subsystem manufacturers and their pricing and delivery schedules, that Boeing will be unable to build a competitive airplane at a competitive price on a competitive timeline.

Both Lockheed and later the Douglas commercial side of McDonnell-Douglas entered similar death spirals. They could design and manufacture a good airplane. They could not sell them at a competitive price, nor persuade buyers that they would survive long enough to provide the support tail.

The recent manufacturing and FAA certification problems on all 3 Boeing airliner products, 737, 777, and 787 are very unhelpful.

The biggest thing helping Boeing is that the airlines collectively hate the idea of Airbus having a de-facto monopoly and being able to jack prices. There’s already evidence of exactly that happening.

The current manufacturers of small jets could get into the big jet business. But that’ll take a decade or 3 and vast amounts of capital. Meanwhile … time marches on.