Reasonably high. Maybe 40%. I have heard plenty of right-wing types claim “it’s good the House has no Speaker because they can’t pass any bills and spend our money”. Remember this whole thing started because McCarthy avoided a shutdown.
If Don Bacon is right, and the FC/MAGA types really just want to be in the opposition, then they can drag this out indefinitely. A shutdown won’t scare them at all. (Israeli aid, however…)
I think there is a <5% chance any Democrats ever vote for a Republican Speaker. It just doesn’t make any sense for either party. I think there is a better chance of a smaller number of GOP members to switch to Independent and caucus with the Democrats and elect Jeffries as Speaker. And that is also a very small chance.
But if this drags into a shutdown with a majority of the House wanting to avoid the shutdown and fund Israeli military aid, there will be immense pressure on the GOP moderates to do something. Whether that “something” is switching parties or caving to Jordan will be an interesting test of character.
I guess you could possibly see a true “unity government” centered around a moderate GOP Speaker. But the feeling I get is that person would be largely supported by Democrats not Republicans. Which is a pretty difficult thing to keep stable.
I suspect (and I mentioned this upthread) that when (as seems most likely right now) the government shuts down, the big money backers of the remaining “mainstream” (read bought) Republicans are going to say “FIX THIS, or your sinecure after you’re done is GONE”.
Will they fix it by caving to Jordan? Maybe. Will they compromise and vote for some other, temporary figurehead Speaker that the Democrats will tolerate in exchange for the good of the nation? Also possible. But I don’t think any shutdown will be extended, although it may run a few weeks.
Octopus would be a good choice for doper namesake for Speaker. They’re reputedly rather intelligent as mollusks go. Almost certainly smarter than the definitely stupider-than-average humans on offer now.
And for all you who think the Republicans will work with Democrats…
“It’s a giant mistake to give the Democrats control of a Republican majority,” said Representative Jim Banks of Indiana, who backs Mr. Jordan. He added: “What they’re doing right now is walking the Republicans off the plank. We don’t deserve the majority if we go along with a plan to give the Democrats control over the House of Representatives. It’s a giant betrayal to Republicans.”
Meanwhile, one of the Republicans who voted against Jordan told members during a closed-door meeting today that they had to have a law enforcement officer stationed at their daughter’s school because of threats this member has been getting.
Amid the ongoing chaos in the speaker-less House, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz defended his decision to lead the effort to oust Kevin McCarthy from his speakership but did not articulate what he got out of it besides removing the California Republican from the position.
“We’re shaking up Washington, DC. We’re breaking the fever" he said.
