That’s the theory.
OTOH, a Kessler event in LEO is inherently self-limiting in fairly short time. Like months. Soon all the debris will have re-entered and the problem is over. Unlike one up in MEO which might not self-clear for millennia.
The relatively prompt loss of service from the various LEO constellations as Kessler picks up speed & takes them down would probably be the largest consequence to humanity.
At least that’s my reading of the situation.
So inevitable but short-lived, not so catastrophic as I feared.
Somebody’d better call Sandra Bullock.
His nomination was pushed by Musk.
Fifteen Democrat “yea” votes, so not purely along partisan lines (although zero Republican "nay"s).
He may be the only Trump nominee that’s actually qualified to do the job.
Reading the LEO / Kessler Syndrome article, makes for a heartfealt Fuckyouverymuch, Elon Musk
Mostly his Starlink could have the whole planet grounded for a good amount of time,
quote:
Calculations show that, across all low-Earth orbit mega-constellations, a “close approach,” defined as two satellites passing by each at less than 1km separation, occurs every 22 seconds. For Starlink alone, that number is once every 11 minutes. Another known metric of Starlink is that, on average, each of the thousands of satellites have to perform 41 maneuvers per year to avoid running into other objects in their orbit.
if edge-cases, like solar storms don’t allow for accident-avoidance-maneuvers, in less than 3 days there will be a good game of billard going on above us, with ricochets shooting around for many months, making for a practically inpenetrable layer around the planet.
Makes you wish for some kind of global-governing-body to (dis)allow shooting willy-nilly 1000s of objects into an orbit
Reading the LEO / Kessler Syndrome article, makes for a heartfealt Fuckyouverymuch, Elon Musk
Mostly his Starlink could have the whole planet grounded for a good amount of time,
quote:
Calculations show that, across all low-Earth orbit mega-constellations, a “close approach,” defined as two satellites passing by each at less than 1km separation, occurs every 22 seconds. For Starlink alone, that number is once every 11 minutes. Another known metric of Starlink is that, on average, each of the thousands of satellites have to perform 41 maneuvers per year to avoid running into other objects in their orbit.
if edge-cases, like solar storms don’t allow for accident-avoidance-maneuvers, in less than 3 days there will be a good game of billard going on above us, with ricochets shooting around for many months, making for a practically inpenetrable layer around the planet.
Makes you wish for some kind of global-governing-body to (dis)allow shooting willy-nilly 1000s of objects into an orbit
new post with Q:
what would be the practical consequences of a Kessler Syndrom in LEO?, IOW: what would stop working?
Presumably SpaceX does have to have government permission to launch satellites.
Based on Low Earth orbit - Wikipedia, the ISS, Tiangon and Hubble would all be taken out. Looks like Iridium is higher than Starlink, don’t know if that would be enough to save it. Based on Kessler syndrome - Wikipedia, probably not.
I can’t help but think that SpaceX could have found a cheaper source of ballast for StarShip launches…
Getting inventory off Tesla’s books and replacing it with cash shores up the company’s financial outlook for the time being. Apparently Musk still has faith this is just a rough patch and it’ll turn out in the end. I am a bit peeved that this anvil has been tied around SpeceX’s neck, even if it’s affordable.
Tgey already have the Starship anvil, after all.
How many CTs can a SuperHeavy loft to LEO?
Miight be fun to blast a few into very low orbit just to watch them re-enter over the next few days.
A very musk-like monument to the raging bonfire of his vanity.
AIUI, there’s an average of one Starlink satellite reentering every day. Once the full constellation is up, it’ll be about 5/day.
I know these conspiracy theorists are annoying, but that’s a bit extreme.
That has to be the start of a running joke series. Like how many XXXs does it take to change a lightbulb… 
Not gonna lie, I kind of miss the vibe from back when they launched Elon’s roadster into the void.
I have a FB post from that day saying that Elon was “one of us” (nerds) that did not age well.
