Ireland aka the reason England will stay out of this mess?
Any word on what the Tsar has said?
Nooooooooooooo! We already have 143 Pit threads about that this month!
I read in the papers the other day that the Kaiser promised his “full support” of A-H… then, yesterday, he went on vacation. With friends like that…
(Off thread)
The Daily Telegraph of London is doing something cool - they are putting their WW1 newspapers online, for free, for the next four+ years. They will upload a paper a day, which may be worthwhile for participants of this thread:
Oh, and if you’re looking for coverage of the assassination on the 6-29 edition, you’ll have to go to page 12, though it does go on for 3 more pages.
“Let onion’s atoms lurk within the bowl,
And, scarce supected, animate the whole.”
Top quality salad poetry there from the Women’s page.
Anyway, glancing through the coverage of the assassination and the following funeral, there doesn’t seem to be any sense of impending doom, or any suggestion that anyone thinks that war will result from it.
Yup. It’ll be bloody though. I suspect a dominant maneover like 1870 will settle it. Or a stalemate which is broken when everyone runs out of ammunition.
BTW, the Kaiser going on holiday should convince everyone that this is not going to lead to war. Some diplomatic notes, sanctions and perhaps the odd bombardment of ports are it. And a blockade tops.
On the other hand, giving Austria his support like that, then disappearing on vacation could spell trouble. What if A-H takes it to mean that Germany is going to give full military support as opposed to full diplomatic support?
But… A-H couldn’t be that stupid. I’m sure they clarified the statement one way or the other.
Speaking of Germany… I think I’ll be able to make it to the Berlin Olympics in '16. Anybody else?
I don’t know where you make your living, my friend, but I would never be able to get the time off work even if I had the money to spare. I intend to spend as much of that summer, as well as the ones either side of it, watching Hobbs and Sandham at The Oval. Mind you, I understand the Berliners are most accommodating hosts for visiting athletes, and I’m sure it will always be that way no matter how the political winds blow.
Telegraph today suggest “disquieting reports” from the area that Serbia is getting onto a war footing. The same report suggests that Russia will support Austria-Hungary if their demands against Serbia are moderate, and that the Russians believe that A-H will make no demands of Serbia which will threaten her national independance in any way.
The report below that one suggests that they’ve caught a couple of the plotters and, though the plot itself up to execution was sophisticated, it’s falling down now as the police chase them up.
Load of fuss about nothing, if you ask me.
I’ve read that it was all deliberate. The Austrians and the Germans made an agreement and knew it would lead to a war (although they still hoped it might only be a Balkan war). But Austria needed time to get everything in place and they were concerned that the other powers might take action to forestall the war.
So the Austrian and German governments tried to make it look like the crisis was over so the other powers wouldn’t anticipate any further action. They intentionally had everyone go on their summer vacations even though they were preparing for war so nobody would suspect they were preparing for war. Austria also downplayed the funeral arrangements for Franz Ferdinand as part of this campaign.
Their plan worked in the sense that when Austria finally delivered its ultimatum it caught Europe by surprise. But it hurt the Austrian cause in a larger sense. Part of Austria’s plan had been that the assassination would give legitimacy to their attack on Serbia - it would make it look like a justifiable response rather than just naked aggression. But the delay and act of indifference ruined that. By the time Austria delivered its ultimatum several weeks after the assassination, European opinion had moved on - supported by Austria’s own actions during those weeks. So the ultimatum no longer appeared to be a valid response to the assassination but instead looked like an excuse for invasion.
*King George V has taken the extraordinary step of summoning his Government, Irish Nationalists, and Irish Unionists to Buckingham Palace tomorrow (7/21) in a last-ditch attempt to resolve the Irish crisis without a civil war.
The government’s Home Rule for Ireland Bill has passed the House of Commons in three successive sessions of Parliament, most recently in May. Under the terms of the Parliament Act of 1911, when the current session of Parliament expires, the government may present the bill to the King for royal assent without further intervention by the Lords.
But if they do so, Protestant Unionists in Ulster will resist by force. They have the arms to do so, as they imported thousands of rifles from Germany (!) in April. If the British Army is required to fight them, there is a real risk that they may refuse. Many British officers are either themselves from Ulster or are sympathetic to Ulster.
Accordingly, the government and Irish Nationalists find themselves forced to negotiate. One possible compromise would be to exclude Ulster, or part of Ulster, from Home Rule for a period of time. Unionists say that nothing short of permanent exclusion would be acceptable. The conference will attempt to hash this out.*
Since Great Britain is the power least directly involved with the Austria-Hungary-Serbia dispute, I would expect them to lead any attempt at arbitration or mediation. But for the moment, they will be 100% distracted by their own problems in Ireland. It will be interesting to see if this has any consequences as the crisis plays out.
Ok, there was an ultimatum sent yesterday.Its getting a touch hairy here, what with rumours of mobilisation and all.
Wow, that’s a nasty ultimatum.
That would turn Serbia into an Austro-Hungarian colony!
No way they would deliver something like this without German backing. Would they?
Oh, in other news, the Buckingham conference broke up without success. Guess that doesn’t seem so important any more.
Piffle to all of this! The Russians backed down in 1909 like they should have and they’ll back down again I say!
Analogous question: Did the US think the invasion of Iraq would be a “cake walk” and that a few months laer, there would be a stable and secure and pro-US government firmly in place a new Iraq at the center of a great renewed moderate Islamic partner in geopolitics?
Same answer: No, because even great nations are run by stupid morons.
It seems very clear that Austria does not want Serbia to agree to those demands. The Austrians want to invade and apparently do not regard the Russians as much of a danger. Yet another instance in a long line of interminable Balkan conflicts. But this one seems to have a greater importance in the Great Minds of Europe for some reason. Perhaps larger interests will get involved after all.
This is getting serious. The Telegraph dedicated at least 3 pages to this news, and the A-H diplomat did in fact leave Serbia. Looks like A-H completely ignored Russia’s plea for delay, which would have cost little.
I just can’t believe that Germany is not going to pull them (A-H) back. They don’t want a fight with Russia and Germany doesn’t give a rat’s ass about some damned Slavs on the Adriatic.
:eek::eek:
Holy shit, Austria declares war..
It’s yet another war in the Balkans, but this time a Great Power is directly involved!
The Austrians should have no trouble cleaning up the Serb army. But it’s the potential for a guerilla war that concerns me. The Austrians could spend years bogged down in an unwinnable war against partisans for no gain. And what will Russia do? Their honor was afronted in 1909 and they will not want to back down again. Maybe some kind of millitary demonstration on the Hungarian border to intimidate the AH.
I’ve been reading up a little on the web of alliances and things in all this, and it seems that a lot hangs on Russia’s reaction. If Russia hangs back, then it can be contained in the Balkans. Russia getting involved drags everyone else in.