If what you’re saying is true, Teuton, then we will see quickly if you’re correct as Russia is mobilizing today.
Holy shit, this is turning into a complete clusterfuck. Damn those Austrians! Why did they need to come down on Serbia so harshly?
Yeah, but it will take weeks for the Russians to get ready. They’re stuck in the 19th Century. There may not be a Serbian Army to aid by the time the Russians actually march.
If I were the Russians, I’d watch out for the Japanese trying to take advantage of the distraction, by taking out another chunk of western Russian territory, like they did in 1905.
[aside]Here’s how you say it: (大東亞共榮圏 Dai-tō-a Kyōeiken)
[/aside]
Heard that Russia didn’t go for a partial mobilization and is now going to mobilize fully. Next comes Germany… I have to believe that France is doing something.
If the mobilisation thing is true, then it really is like a set of dominos.
Belgrade was bombed yesterday.
Reading through the copy in the Telegraph for today, it’s clear that people knew exactly what Russian involvement agains the AH empire would mean - it would mean Germany coming in to fight alongside AH, and thus dragging France in on the side of Russia and the Serbs. And it looks like that’s what’s happening.
I’m not sure what AH is trying to achieve here, to be honest. Do they think they can handle Russia?
The Great Powers haven’t clashed like this in a long time, certainly not within Europe itself.
They think they can handle Russia… you know, as long as Germany’s willing to fight with them, that is. :rolleyes:
Germany is certainly going to mobilise for war, they are bound by treaty to do so. How much actual fighting will they do, though? It appears from the reports of peace demonstrations in Berlin that Germany may well be mobilising against her will.
Will the Kaiser exhort his men to commit atrocities like he did for the China expedition?
If Germany and Russia are in, then France is in. There is no how, no way that France can allow Germany to crush Russia. If that happens it will be France’s turn next, and it will be 1870 all over again.
Perversely, the more countries that jump in, the less important the Serbian thing becomes. I wonder if A-H will even bother to invade Serbia. Germany will want A-H to invade Russia.
Watch however for Bulgaria to jump in, invade Serbia, and grab Macedonia.
Germany has delivered two ultimata. Russia must either demobilize by noon on August 1, or Germany will declare war. France must declare its intention to remain neutral in any conflict between Germany and Russia, or Germany will declare war on it also.
The Germans must be mad if they think we’ll stand for that. Haven’t they heard about the Triple Entente? There won’t be so much as a German rowing boat on the high seas five minutes after we get involved.
The war will be fought on the continent. And the German Navy will be strong enough to keep any a British attack on the ports a very costly affair.
The British could land an expeditionary force. I think 6 or so divisions . Now I think that a British division equivalent to a German corps in fighting ability. But, the German corps loss will get replaced with conscripts and the British will not.
The French would be crazy to take on the Germans–it will be Franco-Prussian War II, and you can expect another triumphant German parade down the streets of Paris. Although this time the French government, a new ancien régime, will not get off so lightly, and you can expect some long overdue adjustments in the colonial situation, reflecting Germany’s role as a rising power. (If I lived in Tahiti, I might start brushing up on my German).
Fah! The French are the finest fighting force in Europe today! Why, look at their red trousers! Feel the elan!
Throw the British on their side (the idea that the German Navy can keep the British away from French ports is, um, laughable) in appreciable numbers and this thing will likely be done by Christmas, with the Germans needing a new Kaiser.
The British army may not be big. But it’s experienced. And really they won’t have to do that much since the Germans won’t get past the fortifications on the French frontier. And they can’t bypass them and go through the Low Countries since they’re heavily fortified as well. And trying to go around on the south is even worse since you have the giant mountain stronghold of Switzerland in the way. No, this will be a war of large-scale border skirmishing before saner heads prevail at the diplomatic table. Exciting and pointless, young men will get their due share of glory they can talk of proudly to their grandchildren.
The thing about the British Army is that it is backed up by the Royal Navy. Due to that fact the British have been able to land armies wherever they want and cause strategic effects out of all proportion to their size. Just ask Napoleon, or Louis XIV. Or any of the Spanish kings. They cannot do that anymore, they will have to face the Gemans directly.
On the plus side for Britain, this should put an end to the whole Irish nosense.
Russia ignored the ultimatum, and Germany has declared war.
With everything else going on, we haven’t mentioned that Jean Jaures, the French Socialist, was shot and killed by an ultranationalist late last night. So far there is no indication that Socialists in any country will call a general strike to try to avert war, nor that the working classes will refuse to fight. The war may be a setback for Socialism.
But, wars have winners and losers, and losers are uniquely vulnerable to revolutionary overthrow. As Napoleon III found out after the last war, and as the Czar almost found out after losing to Japan in 1905.
Germany has invaded and occupied Luxembourg. This is an outrage!
Luxembourg was once the most impregnable fortress in Europe. With German unification, both France and Germany feared that it would fall into the other’s hands. So Luxembourg agreed to dismantle its defenses and dissolve its army, in return for France and Germany (and every other major power) guaranteeing her perpetual inviolability and neutrality. Both sides respected that neutrality during the Franco-Prussian War and in all the years since.
But Germany no longer finds it convenient to do so, so they have violated their own solemn guarantee. Luxembourg is utterly defenseless, so the German invasion was a walkover.
Germany compounded its aggression with a lie. Proclamations posted throughout the Grand Duchy declare that Germany acted in response to an earlier French invasion. There has been no such invasion. Not one French soldier has entered Luxembourg.
Indeed, the worry is now that Germany is going to use this flimsy excuse to get stuck in try and land grab for the furtherance of her own empire.
Britain herself is unlikely to be affected by such land grabs on either side - no-one can invade across the channel through the Royal Navy, and any force we do land is likely to be in support of our allies rather than any attempt to enclave Brittany or something. It’s looking increasingly likely that such a force is going to be assembled in defence of Belgium and France, or our treaties with those nations will rightly be seen as worthless.