The Illogical, "Environmental" Left.

flowbark: But you’re presenting a chicken-and-egg problem. We know how to handle nuclear waste responsibly and safely. But we can’t do it because of the roadblocks (sometimes literally) that are put up by the anti-nuke activists. Then they turn around and say, “The big problem with nuclear power is that they can’t dispose of waste properly”.

Specifically, we can turn high-level waste into glass, encase it in concrete cylinders, and drop it into subduction zones in the deep ocean, never to be heard from again. There is virtually zero exchange of materials between the deep ocean and the surface ocean in the first place, but the glassification prevents the stuff from leeching out anyway. And it’s encased in concrete or steel. Eventually, it will be driven underneath a continental plate and recycled into the deep Earth.

Alternatively, we can simply stack the stuff inside dry salt beds, which have not exchanged materials with the rest of the environment for tens or hundreds of thousands of years.

Most people have this vision of the country full of waste storage facilities, with radioactive ground water, three-headed fish, etc. The fact is, nuclear plants create very little high-level waste. You could power the entire U.S. completely from nuclear power for the next 100 years, and the total amount of high-level waste created could fit inside a football stadium. Of course, nuclear plants also create a lot more low-level waste (dirty gloves, slightly contaminated water, etc). But this is much less dangerous, and there are methods for handling it as well.

And you know, it’s misleading when the anti-nuke lobby says things like, 'and it’ll be radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years!" This is true, but irrelevant. GRANITE is radioactive. It’s not a question of whether it’s radioactive, but rather just how dangerous it is. In a very small fraction of the time mentioned, the radioactivity in the waste will be back down to levels roughly equivalent to the original ore it came from. The thing about radioactive material is that the most dangerous stuff has the shortest half-life. That’s why there are ‘cooling ponds’ at reactor sites - after only a few days the waste is much less dangerous.

But the big problem with waste is political, and the political problem is driven by hysteria manufactured by anti-nuke activists. I can recall reading scare articles by activists talking about the ‘deadly white plumes hanging over the area like a pall’. Of course, those deadly white plumes are nothing more than water vapor. And the radioactivity emitted by nuclear plants is by law lower than the radioactivity emitted by coal plants. Grand Central Station has a background radiation level higher than the NRC maximum allowed inside nuclear plants.

When waste is transported, it’s sealed in containers that are engineered to maintain their structural integrity even if subjected to forces MUCH higher than those caused in even the worst auto accidents. So nothing can happen to the stuff as it’s being transported. Yet just try to send a waste convoy near any populated area - you’ll be snarled by so much red tape and met with so many protestors you won’t know what hit you.

So instead, the stuff gets stacked in ‘temporary’ holding facilities, or local waste dumps are created to avoid the transport problems. And it’s those sites that are now causing the problems.

That’s an empirical claim which I lack the expertise to evaluate. My understanding is that the issue is more contentious that you indicate though. My general impression is that many of these plans are wholly plausible in general terms, but often founder when a specific proposal is studied. The Yucca Mountain controversy is an example. (Check out the report of the 2/99 scientific review panel, next to the map in the article.)

Actually, my take is that there has been very little pro- or anti- nuke agitation for that past 15-20 years. So I think you’re overestimating the influence of the environmental opposition. My understanding is that nukes have a high “dread” rating: radiation is something that few have direct experience with and is known to be dangerous at high levels. So when nuke advocates say, “Trust us, we have the technology”, these claims are met with some skepticism. The historical lack of candor by the nuke industry and government (the two are grouped together, perhaps unfairly) doesn’t help either.

Personally, I hope for a breakthrough in waste processing technology. But I may be pissing in the wind.

I didn’t say nuclear waste is SAFE, genius, I said it was controllable. Meaning that we can control where the stuff goes. Which is exactly why we’ve built large, ultra-secure compounds deep underground in the dryest regions in the country to contain it.

I trust that your knee won’t be jerking around like that in the future. Oh, hell, that’s a tad naive of me… it’s been jerking since day one. Why would I expect a rational response from Elucidator?

C’mon, that was an overstatement. From my above link:
“Yucca Mountain does not provide geologic isolation,” said Steven A. Frishman, a geologist and technical adviser to the Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office. [Run by the State of Nevada -flowbark] “Yucca Mountain is not capable of keeping it where you put it. It’s not a question of will it be contained, but how fast will it leak out.”

Specifically:
"But last year scientists found Chlorine 36, a chemical isotope left by atmospheric atomic bomb testing in the 1950’s, had trickled down fractures to the repository level. That meant rainwater had percolated halfway through the mountain in just 50 years.

      And at the nearby Nevada Test Site, scientists found that plutonium from underground bomb tests had hitched a ride on microscopic specks of clay suspended in ground water and had traveled 1.3 kilometers in 30 years, much faster than they had expected. "

THE POINT: To imply that nuclear power is clearly, obviously, irrefutably, 100% environmentally superior to the alternatives is disingenuous. Or wrong. (But to say that it should be given serious consideration is another matter entirely.)

OK, flowbark. I saw the Exxon chart. It does not make sense to me. Are they comparing raw fuel costs, fuel+O&M, or fuel, O&M, and capital cost of construction?

Well, they’re not capring fuel costs:

From the EIA (one of my favorite sites)

Average coal delivered cost, 2000, cents/MBtu: 120
Average gas delivered cost, 2000, cents/MBtu: 403.6
Average heavy oil delivered cost, 2000, cents/MBtu: 429.4

So, in year 2000, gas was about 3.36 times higher per MBtu than coal.

OK…but coal and gas plants run at different efficiencies.

Try as I might, I cannot find any source with an “average” full-load efficiency of all US coal plants. So, I looked into my “confidential” collection of analyses of 172 coal units in the US, and found that the average full-load Net Plant Heat Rate (NPHR) was 10,552 Btu/kWh. If you can find better figures, I would be happy to use them instead. But I cannot.

This heat rate represents an average efficiency of fuel higher heating value to electricity delivered to the grid of 32.3% ((3413/10,552)*100). As a professional in the coal plant area, I feel this is probably an excellent average number for full-load NPHR, but I will also make it worse (larger) let’s say it is only 30% on a NPHR basis - or 11,376 Btu/kWh (actually, a very miserable coal plant!).

Now…most gas plants in the US are simple cycle gas turbines. These typically have a full-load NPHR ranging from 9751 to 7937 Btu/kWh. This represents a 35-43% efficiency (heat in to electricity out to the grid). Well, a combined cycle plant (on a NPHR basis) will see values of 45 to 52 % efficiency. Tokyo General Electric claims they have a CCGT that has a NPHR of about 6320 (54% efficient). Well, that is a one-of-a-kind installation. But let’s do the math 4 ways. I will assume the average NPHR for gas turbines is, oh, 7937 Btu/kWh (43% efficient), and then also do a case for a top-of-the-line gas plant versus an average coal plant and a “worst case assumption” for coal.

The math is:


cents       Btu       1 MBtu       cents
-----   *  ------  *  -------   =  -----
MBtu        kW*hr      1e6 Btu     kW*hr


Case                   Fuel Cost       NPHR        Cost per kW
                       cents/MBtu      Btu/kWh     cents
"Worst Case" Coal Unit    120.0         11,376     1.365
"Average" Coal Unit       120.0         10,552     1.266
"Average" Gas Unit        403.6          7,937     3.203
"Top-o-the-line" Gas      403.6          6,320     2.551

So even comparing the worst case coal plant versus the best case gas plant…well, there is no comparison.

Any questions?

Now, if they want to compare capital and O&M costs…but seriously. They cannot just throw up one simple chart, even with its range bars, and cover all aspects of that adequately. Do you have some more concrete numbers to share?

And to imply that I implied that is far more disingenious. I said nothing about “superior”. I said “We can control where the nuclear waste goes”. Period.

Just because the previous methods of containing nuclear waste haven’t been proven to be completely effective doesn’t mean it’s impossible to effectively contain it.

Noone’s trying to argue that nuclear power is totally free of consequences or pollution. It has plenty of that, but the argument is that it’s likely to be the lesser of possible evils.

Nuclear pollution is, as has been said, much easier to keep contained and controlled. It’s really nasty stuff, yes, but I’ll take a small amount of nasty stuff in barrels (that can possibly be dealt with better in the future, such as launch into space) over a LOT of nasty stuff belched into the atmosphere, rivers, ocean, etc, that we can’t really deal with, ever.

No, it’s not perfect. But when you weigh the alternatives, IMO, it’s the best we’ve got right now, considering that the “perfect” solutions are all far too expensive to get people to agree on.

Balderdash, Sir! Tommyrot!

If “controllable” don’t mean “safe”, it don’t mean squat! We aren’t talking “toxic”, amigo. This shit is to toxic as cyanide is to powdered sugar. If all the evil Adepts of Cthulu worked in concert with the Dark Lords of the Young Americans for Freedom, they couldn’t come up with anything as nasty as this shit.

You are calmly satisfied that an utterly safe system of storage will be found, that we can drop our troubles down a hole and the genii is back in the bottle. All well and good. (Though it strikes one rather like the argument that its ok to continue smoking 'cause there will be a cure for cancer soon.)

But the Titanic sank. Windows '95 crashes. The XFL fails to draw an audience. The best laid plans aft gang agley. Even engineers screw up sometime!

The level of human risk is unacceptable if for no other reason than we have no idea what that level of risk is (though if recent reports from the Chernobyl area are any indication, we have some sobering clues)

As a society, we spend energy like a drunken sailor, an appalling amount of which is spent on noisy and shiny crap. Now, the men who make thier livings selling us shiny noisy crap insist that to preserve our way of life (see above) we must put our grandchildren at risk “unto the seventh generation” and beyond. How “beyond”? We have no idea.

Even poor, fuzzy-thinking old Elucidator is more rational than that.

Seldom has my sig been more relevent.

Capring? Or comparing? :wink:

Fine. We can control where nuclear waste goes: we just can’t control where it stays. Or at least we don’t know how to.

Shooting the stuff into space: Every review I’ve read of nuclear waste options suggests that, on balance, this is a bad idea.

Faith in technology: This is an issue that hovers in the background. My response is that sometimes reality is mean. Example: While processor speeds and memory-storage costs have dropped following Moore’s law, battery technology has lagged far behind. The latter is just a tougher nut to crack.

Example: Following the moon landing, the US undertook a “War on Cancer”: if we can land a man on the moon, we can cure cancer, right? Well, progress in that area has been pretty impressive, but a total mastery of the disease has been elusive.

Again, I don’t want to rule nukes out. But I don’t want to necessarily rule them in either.

Anthracite:
Great analysis. Thanks. As you know you left out construction costs but, heck, I would think that if anything they would favor coal over a high-tech gas plant.

So, cost-wise (at current prices), coal appears to rock.* (There are scrubbers on those coal plants, right?)

I tooled around the eia.doe website and couldn’t find any total cost comparisons.

*[sub]Setting aside environmental issues for the moment[/sub]

Controllable: Able to be controlled.

Airplanes are controllable… so tell me why people have died in them.

You read a lot into my words. I say that a safe control system is possible (and feasible), so we should develop that control system.

Of course. Doesn’t mean that engineers screw up all the time.

I’m going to ignore the rest of the post, simply because I can’t make heads or tails of most of it. I’ll simply assume that you posted whilst intoxicated.

Here you are on solid ground. Your definition is unassailable.

Your reasoning is too subtle for me. It may be that a sound conclusion follows from your premises. I have no idea.

Splendid idea! Would that it were so! Regretably, we assumed that would happen, that the waste we have been producing for forty-odd years now would be rendered harmless. Didn’t happen. Might we not just wait until the Magic Neverfail Radioactive Waste Dump is invented before we make more stuff to put in to something that doesn’t exist?

You got me again. Nailed me right where I wasn’t.

This thing goes wrong just once, one of those radioactive pustules bursts… A thousand? Ten thousand? N+1? I don’t know. Neither do you.

You been talking to my ex? Tell her I want my records.

Elucidator, I still don’t think you understand when I use the word “controllable”.

Look at my original quote. I compared nuclear waste to smoke/exhaust/etc. from a natural gas/coal plant. One goes out flying willy-nilly all over the place, subject to the natural elements and completely beyond the scope of human invervention. The other stays put, ready for us to do with it as we will.

Again, just because it’s very hard to control, that doesn’t mean it can’t be controlled. Speculation over safety systems and faulty engineering is immaterial, unless you choose to start a new thread debating that point.

I will, although she’s grown pretty attached to 'em. Stupid broad… she falls in love with The Coasters and she never wants to part with 'em. :smiley:

Well, I don’t have good numbers yet on the cost of a coal plant versus a GT or CCGT. But I do know, working at a company that builds both of these, that GTs and CCGT’s have a lower capital cost per MW capacity than coal. The typical situation is:

Coal - expensive to build, cheap to operate.
Gas - less expensive to build, much more expensive to operate.

It also takes about 30-36 months to build a coal plant form scratch, versus 6-12 months to install a GT or a CCGT. Adding a new coal unit onto an existing coal plant site takes about 18-24 months.

Sam Stone, yeah, I’ll admit that I overreached in lumping you into the category of those who trust the market as a religious belief. Perhaps it was just an overreaction to being implicitly called a “statist central planner”. :wink:

I agree with you that it is difficult to determine the real costs of people’s automobile use…But, I don’t think that should stop us from making attempts to do a better job at it. I.e., while one can argue about whether gas should be taxed up to a price of $3.50 per gallon or $8 per gallon, I don’t think one can argue that it ought to be where it is now. This is a case where the best is the enemy of the good…I.e., I don’t think our lack of knowledge about exactly what the correct amount of taxation is should prevent us from doing anything to move in the direction of correcting the externalities.

I also agree with you that regulating prices directly is generally a poor way to deal with things because the market is particularly effective at setting the price at a point that prevents shortages or gluts. On the other hand, I can also see flowbark’s point about what might actually be happening in California with an effective monopoly “gaming” the system. So, in the end, I would have to say that I don’t now know enough to have a position on whether any sort of price caps there might be a good idea. [For gasoline prices, I am prepared to say that I think they would be a stupid idea.]

Finally, I also agree with you that often the best way to deal with issues like pollution, etc. is with solutions that allow for the market to find the most efficient way of meeting a standard through the use of pollution credit trading. However, there is an important caveat to that which is that one has to make sure the same results are being reached. For example, while trading in a global pollutant such as CO2 makes sense, it may make less sense for pollutants that have significant local effects. I.e., you may need to restrict the trading so that no one area ends up getting screwed.

Another problem is that my (admittedly vague) impression is that those industries that have advocated this credit trading in the past have sometimes done so somewhat disingenuously in order to get an effectively weaker standard. For example, a law saying that no plant can emit more than X tons of compound Y is not the same as a credit trading scheme in which the total number of credits is NX tons (where N is the number of plants). This is because the first case will likely result in a total emission of less than NX tons because some plants will already be emitting less than X tons and others might find it just as easy to install equipment getting their level down to significantly below X tons as to get it down right to that level. Whereas, the trading scheme will very likely result in very close to N*X tons of emission (assuming that the market in emissions trading is efficient). This is, in fact, a primary reason why the Europeans and Japan were opposing unfettered international trading in CO2 emissions…Because in the original Kyoto Protocol that had set the levels for various countries, some eastern European countries had ended up with very generous levels that they wouldn’t get up to anyway.

Imposing a tax, such as a carbon tax, to try to correct for an externality is another way to get a desired result but allow the market to determine the most efficient way of allocating resources to do so.