If I read this correctly, the entire House would have to agree on a plurality vote. That would likely end up with, for example, 118 votes for Scalise, 103 for Jordan, and all 212 Democrats voting for Hakeem Jeffries.
The Republicans may have formed a circular firing squad, but I don’t think they’ll go so far as to agree to a move that would end up with a Democratic Speaker.
Both the earlier examples of plurality voting came before the system froze onto two parties. They’re not likely to be useful precedents today.
Scalise is not remotely what anyone would call a moderate.
Scalise is a strong conservative leader who upholds the Constitution, advocating for the principles of fiscal discipline, lower taxes, an all-of-the-above national energy strategy, a robust national defense, and conservative values. Through his previous experiences as a House Deputy Whip and Chairman of the Republican Study Committee (RSC), Scalise developed a proven formula to pass effective legislation that unites his colleagues.
Who wrote that? The LDC Gas Forums.
If the Freedom Caucus can’t support Steve Scalise, they intend to take Congress hostage yet again until they get their way.
If they do turn around and support Scalise, with another set of concessions in their hands that will prevent any bills from getting Biden’s signature, they have the prospect of a Speaker getting treatment for blood cancer, who walks with a cane and wears a mask because he is immocompromised. How much spin will that require while attacking Biden as unfit for the job - and masks as a sign of feminine weakness?
The Republicans may destroy Congress, which is their apparent real goal.
Nitpick: elected. Senators can be appointed (by the governor, based on a procedure created by the state legislature) to replace another Senator who resigns or dies in office; any vacancy among the House of Representatives must filled by election. So Rep. McEachin’s replacement had not yet been elected to the seat.
Any guesses how long it will take until a Speaker is actually in place? How long until they do any public voting even?
No fan of Scalise but glad that membership delivered a solid FU to Trump’s influence.
Part of the issue is: in a normal such body, one could have an agreement to the effect of “OK, on the first ballot everyone votes for whoever they want just to satisfy your need for posturing, then on the second we go ahead and vote him in properly”. But (a) who the Hell can count on people abiding by such a deal any more and (b) the relative sub-majority really, really, really, really DON’T want multiple ballots again with people like Miss Lauren seeking to “out” and name-and-shame who was it that did not Follow The Misleader.
Agreement is something humans do in large groups. A Battle Royale is something chimps do in large groups. It appears Planet of The Apes is being made right before our eyes.
I kid, but if you look at the sorts of logic and motivations these folks espouse and the behaviors they express, it really isn’t too far off. Very short-sightedly animalistic.
You mean unanimously? No, just a majority.
Maybe not, but my cite was to show it doesn’t have to be a majority. And let’s say the vote is 212 Jeffries, 213 A Pub that the Democrats could live with and 8 MAGA candidate. The Dems may agree to a plurality so that the Pub gets elected Speaker without them having to vote for him/her directly.
You’d think if a majority are willing to vote to accept a plurality of themselves voting, they could cut out a step.
No, I meant both parties, not just the Republican caucus. If the Republicans agreed to a plurality but then split into two factions, the Democrats could wind up electing Jeffries as Speaker.
If they wanted to let the Republican get elected in this scenario, Democrats could just vote present and lower the threshold for a majority.
Absent an immediate, existential threat to the nation, there is no Republican Speaker candidate Democrats can live with such that they’d engage in either maneuver.
In a world in which anything can happen, this could happen. I don’t think we live in a world in which anything can happen. Each day brings news that conspires to disabuse me of that notion, so… maybe.
On second thought, no, this won’t happen. The Democrats would be tying the anchor of the Speakership around their necks. Even in this crazy world, no one in the party is that crazy.
Gonna need a bigger subject line, the way things are going…
Or do it my way and hope the Republicans forget how to count.
Excellent point. Bravo.
I started this thread as an offshoot of the Impending Shutdown thread.
I suppose we could close this chapter right now as part 1 and open a new one with a title like
The Great Ongoing Revolving Speakership of the 118th Congress
Which is probably more like what we’re going to experience over the next 15 months.
I’m semi-kidding, but mostly not. I’ll bug a mod for their thoughts.
I was thinking more along the lines of “[Insert name] Tries to Lead the Republican House Caucus - In Head of Lettuce Time”
Politico makes it sound like a long time. And they know more than I do.
But my ignorant guess? We already have a supposedly reluctant speaker. McHenry. Almost all politicians crave power, so the most extreme wingers have to worry that if they go many ballots and get Scalise to drop out, McHenry will decide to make a go of acting like he’s a real speaker. And to them, McHenry is worse than McCarthy. So my ignorant guess is Scalise will win in a lot fewer ballots than it took McCarthy.
It seems like he cant, under House rules.
George Santos is a hard Never Scalise vote:
It’s just past 9:40pm and I have yet to hear from the Speaker-Designate. So l’ve made my decision and after 10 months and having had 0 contact or outreach from him, I’ve come to the conclusion that my VOTE doesn’t matter to him. I’m now declaring l’m an ANYONE but Scalise and come hell or high water I won’t change my mind.
We need a Speaker that leads by including every single member of the team not just some, That’s not leadership!
I agree with your interpretation of the rules, but if McHenry tries to do something like bring forward a CR ultimately the House will decide whether he has that authority by agreeing or refusing to go along.
Santos needs to wise up and realize at this point pretty much none of the GOP likely give a crap about him or his feelings. The NY GOP delegation is likely to try and oust him any day now.