If we assume Gaetz’ real goal is simply to stop any / all legislation, he can keep introducing his motion every day until it succeeds through exhaustion or he is expelled from the House or is arrested for something.
What’s needed of course, in both houses of Congress is an admission that personal obstructive tactics are now verboten, followed by the rules changes necessary to make that prohibition explicit, not just “traditional”.
Assuming all Representatives are present, if five Republicans vote with all Democrats to remove him then he is removed. For each Republican beyond four, you need a Democrat to vote against the motion or to vote “present.” There will also likely be motions to table the motion to vacate and/or refer it to committee, which would be subject to the same math.
I’d say 50-50 is about right. It’s been reported that leadership expects between seven and 19 Republicans to vote to remove McCarthy. Almost all of the Democratic Caucus will vote to remove him because they don’t trust him. And the bind McCarthy is in is that any offer he makes to Democrats to try to secure some of their votes risks pushing more Republicans into voting to vacate – any Republican who votes alongside Democrats (even if they just vote present) to save McCarthy will get absolutely hammered in their next primary.
Who can they possibly pick as Speaker that is better than McCarthy? The GOP is a complete disaster right now, as evidenced by them ousting their own Speaker. Who could they pick that they won’t oust?
George Santos? They’ve certainly made it clear they won’t oust him ever.
I lean towards that the Democrats should NOT help McCarthy barring massive concessions. Let him be removed, and then let the Republicans flail for days or even weeks. Any replacement will be just another tool of the crazies, just like McCarthy. That flailing could lead to strange and surprising things, like (my best hope) those handful of semi-rational Republicans deciding to leave the party and caucus with the Democrats. At the very least, Democrats shouldn’t even consider helping McCarthy unless and until we come upon another hard obstacle like the November deadline for a shutdown.
What concessions would be the best things to ask? And how does anyone trust him to keep the promise?
there is a super secret dem. meeting going on now. from what i’ve heard on various shows dem.s are not in a mood to help him.
Nets chatter says KMac will let the motion come to the floor during the first vote series today (late pm). So at least he seems to want it dealt with quick.
And maybe a chunk of the cheesy moon will crash down to Earth, landing on the Kremlin and thus solving ending both world hunger and the war in Ukraine all at once. I think that’s just a bit more likely than rational Republicans doing anything.
While I"d love to get some moon-cheese, Gaetz’s obnoxious poo-flinging may drive some Republicans around the bend. And I wonder if there’s something that Dems could offer: some of the Republicans in blue districts might be temptable. If leadership said something like, “Switch to the Democratic party, and we’ll heavily support you during the primary season,” there might possibly be someone amenable to crossing the aisle.
For those wondering why the Dems would want to vote to support he Speaker, how about this: A quick vote in which most or all of the Freedum Caucus votes to remove him, and everyone else, including all the Dems, votes to keep him. Make it clear that this will happen every time this comes up to a vote.
Basically, telling them to sit down and shut up, and let the rest of the House get on with real work. That has a value in and of itself.
I am starting to come around to this. I was thinking the Democrats could lever McCarthy into responsible governing at the very least by holding the Speaker’s seat over his head. Ya know, important stuff like a functioning House. He can’t even do that, or bring the crazies in his party to heel. And the trust issue. While it will be satisfying to watch the Republican party torn asunder, remember the House and essentially our whole system of governing will be shut down while the fever progresses. And no one knows if someone more crazy and untrustworthy will end up in the Speaker’s seat. But, I am starting to feel like it may be worth the trouble to remove him now.
I still think the Democrats could squash Gaetz like the bug he is, by just having a few members vote with most of the Republicans to keep McCarthy.
No, my bad - I was assuming a “present” was a de facto “no” vote. I see what you mean.
4 years of Trump didn’t do it. Gaetz, MTG, Boebert, and Jordan could ride in on the four horses of the apocalypse and Republicans would make some noise for a few days before continuing with business as usual.
Gaetz seems determined to prevent business as usual; that might be the difference. I wouldn’t bet on it even if I were allowed to, but it’s at least a possibility.
From Obama’s time in office, I’ve given up on the idea that Repubs can be “bargained” back to reason. It seems the only way to get sanity from them is to allow the car to speed towards the brick wall, and perhaps as the front bumper makes contact, they MIGHT agree to fasten their seat belt.
Almost seems we need to let them break enough things - or at least get darned close, to encourage the semi-sane folk to realize they actually have SOME responsibility to govern.
McCarthy said that there will be a vote on a motion to table the motion to vacate today. If that fails, there’s still a vote to be had on the underlying motion which he could delay another day.
But honestly if he loses the motion to table he’s going to lose on the motion to vacate.
Most likely, although while it is “not what you normally do” it is not out of the question either to force the final vote to proceed only to then have it fail.
And let’s be clear, what the Lunatic Wing wants IS for everything to break down so there IS a major painful crisis to blame on “the Establishment”.
If I am understanding the article below, he will call a regular vote later today. He also said there would be no deal with the Dems.
No, they’re not. If they were the government would be either shut down right now or under a continuing resolution with massive spending cuts. Instead the only cut was to Ukraine aid, and that is more than likely to pass in a separate bill.