Red: Your first cite still does not support the claim that Iraqi civilian deaths have increased recently. And your second cite is about activities in 2007-- when US casualties were at their highest.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying that we should bomb the shit out of Iraq. I’m just suspicious of the claim that Iraqi casualties are going up as US casualties are going down. And I’m only suspicious because the claim is made without showing the data. Bombs kill civilians, but foot patrols do, too. I’ll do some more searching later. I’m surprised I couldn’t readily find a site with Iraqi civilian casualty data by month-- I’m sure several such sites exist.
And finally, Juan Cole discusses, quite rationally as always, the very topic of this thread and also approaches the “relative calm” that is so being hailed by the MSM.
John, there are many…the most conservative of which is obviously the Iraq Body Count. Take a look at their Weekly graph and you’ll notice that (admittedly small) spike in the past few moths.
Red: That data is not civilian deaths due to US forces. I’m assuming that this claim:
“But left unsaid is that the lower US casualty figures in Iraq are coming at the expense of much higher civilian casualties.”
Means casualties due to US attacks, not Iraqi on Iraqi violence. I make that assumption based on what was said next:
“The reason for this ugly calculus is that in order to keep politically damaging US casualties as low as possible, the US military and the Bush/Cheney administration that gives the generals their marching orders, are resorting increasingly to the use of air power–bombs and rockets and remote controlled, missile-equipped Predator drone aircraft–to attack suspected militant targets.”
Yes, it does appear that overall civilian deaths have risen in '08 compared to the second half of '07, but how much of that increase is due to the change in tactic mentioned in your earlier cite-- ie, more Iraqis being killed by US forces.
Does it matter? If Iraqis are dying at the hands of Iraqis, then the civil war continues and security cannot be said to be acheived. If they are dying at the hands of Americans, then the insurgency continues, and security is not achieved.
At any rate, trust this: that truth is the first casualty of war, and all data from a combat zone is suspect.
Maliki has constituents and government, Shia and Sunni alike, that all firmly agree on getting us the hell out of there. For his governments stability it’s imperative that he at least appear to be moving us out whether or not that’s practically viable right now.