I’m quite sad to see that both Peter Stoffer and Megan Leslie were swept away in the Atlantic’s red tide. They were good MP’s but everyone was just so sick of Harper’s Tories, and this is the nature of the beast.
Side note is that this is the first time I’ve ever seen the entire region come to a combined agreement in terms of electing MPs (historically it’s always over-half Grits, under-half Tories, and a few NDPers).
Here are my thoughts on the election last night:
I’m Glad Harper is out, never liked him. I’ll admit our economy has done fairly well over the last 6 years than most. But I always thought he was trying to get in good with the Republican’s down south. His rally with the Ford brothers was comical, I think if anyone was “on the fence” with voting Conservative probably would have been scared away with that move. Seriously, what was he thinking? That was almost Trump like!
I’m not surprised there was a Liberal majority, even though the polls thought it would be a minority (at best). Do you know why? Because political polling is flawed in this day and age. How do they poll people? They call them at home. Let’s see, who doesn’t a). Have a land line at home? and b) Will actually pick up the phone and talk to a person on a number they don’t recognize? I’ll tell you, almost everybody under the age of 40! Who has both a phone and love to talk to people? Anybody over the age of 50! That is why the Liberal’s “came out of no where”
And lastly, honestly I don’t think Tredeau’s name got him that many votes. Not many people under the age of 40 even remember Tredeau being in power, or what he stood for. The people that remember are 45+, and I don’t think may of them voted Liberal. Tredeau probably won because the young voters (anyone under the age of 40) can relate better to Tredeau than a Harper or Mulcair.
I’m excited to see what will happen!
MtM
Yes, the lefties and centrists hated Harper so much that the strategic voting kicked in big time.
Polls didn’t show that it would be a minority. Polls showed that around 37-39% of people would vote for the Liberal candidate in their riding (which turned out to be what happened). Turning that into an estimate of seats is something separate from polling.
There seems to be this emerging narrative that the NDP lost because the Conservatives lost.
The NDP lost because they ran a shitty campaign. They killed the Liberals in 2011 and held almost a hundred seats. It’s fine to say “people didn’t want Stephen Harper anymore” but the gain in Liberal votes is vastly greater than the loss of Conservative votes. The Liberals took NDP votes, big time.
What was the NDP platform? It was a Conservative-style mix of little things meant to appeal to various demographics. They started off with “We’re the alternative, so of course you should vote for us,” which of course doesn’t capture anyone’s imagination.
Let’s be honest; the NDP lost because they deserved to lose, not because the Tories made them lose.
I think this was just a standard regression to the mean. The odd thing isn’t that the NDP are back to third party status, the odd thing was that they ever got out of third place.
Calgary Skyview and Calgary Center both went Liberal. Neither of these was my riding and I was not really following them, so maybe my surprise is out of place. Still, first liberal seats in Calgary since 1968.
It’s a harsh lesson for the NDP. They came into the election leading in the polls and they didn’t want to screw it up, so they played it conservative. They basically went out there trying not to lose. They were so afraid of offending someone that they weren’t really willing to take much of a stand on anything, and they paid for it.
The youngest person who voted for a successful federal Liberal candidate in Calgary before last night was 68 years old (since voting age was 21 then).
Or to put it another way, the last time a Grit won in Calgary, the Leafs were one year removed from winning the Cup.
I’m curious to see who replaces Harper as leader of the Conservatives. Will the pick someone more left leaning in view of the next election, or will they go mad dog?
Brad Wall (who is someone that would definitely get me to consider switching) has ruled himself out. Jason Kenney is the “obvious” choice, but I find it hard to believe they’d literally just go one riding over in Calgary.
While going down the list of winners from last night, a name I spotted that literally made me laugh out loud that he’s still in Parliament: Stéphane Dion.
A less divisive administration like they had to be as a minority probably could have held on in this election. Maybe they will learn that adversarial fuck the other guys politics is not the answer. I hope that lesson is appreciated by the new government. There has to be some appreciation of the concerns of the rest of Canada.
Peter Stoffer’s and Megan Leslie’s local popularity are very strong and pre-date both Mulcair’s crappy federal campaigning and Jack Layton’s own surging popularity (the same can be said of other ousted NDP vets like Paul Dewar or Pat Martin). Also unlike other places, in Atlantic Canada your name/history means a lot to voters (much more than un/cool party leaders) this is the reason that people like Scott Brison or Bill Casey can switch parties and take all of their former voters with them. People tend to vote for personalities more then national politics.
For the last 6 or so elections the East Coast has always split voted either Lib or Con with a few NDP. Neither the collapse of the Grits, nor the rise of the NDP/Tories have changed this pattern. However this time things were different. Every other party was wiped from the map. Gone. This had little to do with the lack of a strong NDP (a strong NDP wouldn’t have changed the local mentality), this was a rare unified message of rejection of the last 4 years of the Harper Conservatives.
I have doubts Peter Mackay would have survived this slam had he chosen to run.
And that also means the Libs can’t take their support for granted, right? They’d have to throw the NDP a bone or two from time to time.
In general this has leaned more to the Libs favour since former PC Newfoundland & Labrador Premier Danny Williams created the ABC movement in 2007 and helped rid NL of all CPC MP’s (not a man you want fighting against you in that province).
Based on a few of my Facebook friends’ postings this morning, they still don’t seem to get why so many people have moved away from the Conservative party, so I’m betting on “mad dog” here.
I saw the interview with this fellow last night, and he exemplifies exactly my position. I used to vote Conservative, but the hard rightward moves they’ve made over the last ten years have taken them well outside my comfort zone. If they don’t move back, they’ll never get my vote again.
The problem is, they’ve embraced the “party of stupid” role so hard, I despair of any of them ever figuring this out. When a last minute effort to win the election involves an endorsement from Rob F*^&ing Ford, there’s just no way they’re capable of figuring this out.
I am over the moon that my country stood firm against the politics of fear, divisiveness, negative campaigning, islamaphobia and dirty tricks.
I confess, I was of the very cynical opinion that the cons had so gamed the system ( changing funding, taking expat votes away, misguiding robo calls, redistricting, etc.) that they really couldn’t lose. I am enormously happy to be proven wrong.
I’m thinking yesterday was a great day for Canada!
Please, teach us your ways.
(Congratulations.)
Wholeheartedly agree, on all points. And Harper resigning – just as I predicted – is a bonus.
Now that he’s no longer Toronto’s famous crack-smoking far-right wingnut mayor, the man himself is available for the job.