Can’t recall where I read it, but there had been a very convincing argument before that the safest careers will always be those that involve fixing something gone wrong, because they are independent of the state of the economy - indeed, all the more needed when an economy is bad.
Examples being healthcare (there will always be sick and injured people no matter what,) law enforcement (there will always be crime - indeed, probably increased crime in a recession,) etc. Is this a wise principle to go by for job security? (not that one would pick this career only for job security, but that it’s true that if your profession is fixing some ill, you will never go out of business)
I work in environmental science. There are all kinds of environmental problems out there that need fixing, but good luck convincing a significant fraction of the population of this. The most frustrating of this fraction either think there aren’t any problems (they’ve been lulled into a false sense of security) or they believe the problems are so insurmountable that there’s nothing we can do about them, so why try? (climate change). And then there are many people who think there are environmental problems that need addressing, but that they are secondary to other problems.
What if you’d gone in to a TV repair business in the 80s because people will always have TVs, they’d always break down? Wrong - nobody repairs TVs anymore, they just buy new ones.
I recently fixed a TV by buying a replacement PS off eBay. I found it via Googling the part number. Based on all the listings all over the place I found, there’s an active business in selling such parts.
A counterexample is home repair. During the Great Recession the home repair business took quite a hit. Sales at Home Depot/etc. fell. Repair people had a lot of their business die. Etc. People put off stuff.
I knew a guy back in the day who was a VCR repair whiz. He opened a little shop and was inundated with business. Then one day the price came down to the point where his minimum repair fee was more than a new VCR. Then DVDs happened. When the smoke cleared, he owned hundreds of broken VCRs (people dropped them off for repair and left them after receiving their estimate).
It depends. There will always be a need for electricians, HVAC technicians, and plumbers as long as people own houses. There will always be a need for auto mechanics, even if we transition to all-electric, because the initial cost of purchase is so high that insurance companies would balk at the idea of every $30,000 car being disposable.
I’m sure there are other “indispensable” jobs, but as has already been shown technology or economics can render those jobs obsolete overnight.
Right- but it’s only certain segments that allow people to “put stuff off”. Let’s call it “home improvement” - people don’t wait until their kitchen cabinets are falling apart to replace them,so they can usually wait a year or two until times are better. And then there are the actual “repairs” that can’t wait- like a sewer pipe that needs to be replaced. The place that replaced my sewer pipe* only* does sewers and water mains - so they are unaffected by a recession cutting down on kitchen/bath renovations or additions.
For the next few decades at least, somebody has to fix Amazon’s robots. Even if they can diagnose it, the robot can’t yet change its own broken gizmo. You can’t offshore a plugged toilet or a tripping breaker. Healthcare (as noted,) landscaping, highway installation and repair, haircuts.
There will always be a need for government workers. But there may be less per capita in the future.
The funeral business will change as well. I expect more cremations, so cemeteries will likely lose business, and have “cheaper” customers. (Funerals themselves, I imagine, will never go away.)
No, I was talking about repairs. I know a lot of neighbors that put off repairing things due to the difficulties they were experiencing. This, of course, cost them more money in the long run but when you have no money in the short run just keeping the house was the main task, let alone fix things.
I’m not sure what you mean by “cheaper” customers - but from what I can see, more cremations will be a result of cemeteries not having available plots rather cemeteries losing business to crematoriums. ( not to mention that many cemeteries have a place for cremated remains to be stored). That very likely varies by location, though.
Can you give me some examples- I did mean to mention that repairing or replacing broken appliances can wait ( if my washer breaks, I can go to the laundromat) but I don’t see how you can delay fixing the plumbing or the furnace unless you literally don’t have any money or credit - which I’m sure happens to some people , but I’m pretty sure it doesn’t happen to enough people to really affect home repair ( not renovation, not maintenance ) businesses. The maintenance/renovation businesses get affected by people’s lack of confidence in the economy - but I don’t see how you can put off fixing the hole in your roof because you aren’t sure your job is safe.
My parents are fairly well off, but they don’t keep up with home repairs. Their upstairs bathroom has a separate water heater which broke, and they didn’t fix for years. They just used the bath downstairs. They also chose to install new through-the-wall air conditioners rather than repair the central AC system.
Ummm…
Let’s not forget the one job with perfect lifetime guarantee of no layoff:
TSA inspector at the airport.
For verily I say unto thee, the TSA doth endureth forever.
I’ve got a neighbor who has had a hole in his roof for the past four months. A tarp is covering it.
Maybe one of these days, he’ll get someone to fix it. But it won’t be the guy who will charge $10,000 to replace the whole thing. No, it will be the neighborhood odd job guy who will charge $200 to patch it up. And he won’t try to talk the homeowner out of this band-aide solution like the contractor will.
I gotta think that there are a lot of small independent contractors whose income is already kind of borderline shaky. All it takes is enough people to seriously study those DIY youtube videos for some significant portion of those contractors to no longer be able to support themselves solely on home repair…and then one day they become the neighborhood odd job guy.
Additionally, if people are stuck with underwater mortgages (see Great Recession) and are facing foreclosure, then home repairs become quite irrelevant. Why spend money on fixing a broken toilet when you probably aren’t even going to be in the house by the end of the year anyway? Just use the other bathroom or go in the bushes!
Yeah, but would they delay fixing the water main or the sewer line or just lived without any AC unless they literally couldn’t get the money or credit to do so? I’m not sure if I’m not being clear, but recession or not, there will always be people who replace rather than repair , there will always be people who don’t bother to fix the X, because they can always use one of the other X’s, and there always be people who delay and take the $200 band-aid rather than the more expensive fix. I’m sure there are people who wouldn’t fix a broken water main or sewer pipe until legal action was taken, recession or not.
I'm not talking about those people. Those people don't make home repair a viable business in good times and not-viable in bad times. I'm talking about the theoretical people who have no problem getting things repaired in good times and suddenly stop when there's a recession. I don't really think there are enough of them to disqualify home-repair as a recession-proof business.
I’m geniunely not understanding why you’re so confused.
I’m the kind of person who stays up on maintenance and repair, whether that be my car, my home, or me. But I’m only like this because I can afford to be like this.
Add some stress to my life and I could totally see me having a totally different mentality. Like, slash my income in half and suddenly I’m not going to get my car serviced every six months. I will just change my own oil instead of pretending I can’t learn how. I will be the kind of person who will ignore the “check engine” light instead of the person who immediately drives to the mechanic when it pop ups. And when it comes to inspection time, maybe I’ll ask around the neighborhood to see if anyone knows a guy who can turn that freakin’ light off for a few bucks.
Add some more stress to my life and I could totally see me throwing a tarp over a leaky roof or doing dishes in my bathtub until I can scrounge up enough cash to fix the kitchen sink. And in the meantime, the certified repair guy that would otherwise get my business would be sitting in his truck, staring into space. If there enough people like me in the service area, then he’s going to be staring into space. Even if he just has 15% fewer calls, that can mean not having enough money for rent if he was barely keeping his head above water during the “good times”. Not too many people can run a business when they’re homeless.
I think there will always be a demand for repairmen. But this demand doesn’t translate into full-time work with decent wages for any and all repairmen, no matter what.
And the left hand to the lawyer’s right, legislative staff.
Because by the time one of you figures the way around some law, some colleague will be headed to the Assembly to ask for another one to be written to fix that. And Members may lose elections but they’ll always need someone who knows how the heck to file the bill
