In the history of these dog and pony shows, has the nominee ever been an upset surprise? I mean, it’s virtually a foredrawn conclusion, isn’t it? …And, just when did the tradition of holding these conventions begin?
- Jinx
1832 for the Democrats; 1856 for the Republicans. There have been plenty of upsets, dark horses, compromise candidates, etc.
I wouldn’t expect to see any more under the current setup, which started evolving in the 50s and 60s, though it could have happened if there had been a third strong candidate for the Democrats this year.
The big shift to binding primaries came after the 1968 Democratic convention. The problems were partially fueled by Eugene McCarthy supporters who felt they had been cheated by their own party which nominated Hubert Humphrey via the old-style wooing of convention delegates in spite of considerable grassroots support for McCarthy. Both major parties adopted policies favoring binding primaries after this.
The 1952 Democratic convention was the last one to go to multiple ballots. Adlai Stevenson was chosen on the third ballot.
There have been serious challenges in recent times, such as Ted Kennedy’s attempt to get take the nomination away from Jimmy Carter in 1980 by getting delegates released from their voting commitments.
And the standard “dark horse” example is Republican Warren G. Harding in 1920, chosen following meetings in the famous “smoke filled room” after 10 ballots. Harding ran in 6th place on the first ballot.
On two separate occasions (James Garfield, R 1880 and Horatio Seymour, D 1868) the ultimate presidential nominee failed to receive a single vote on the first ballot.
The record for most presidential ballots is 103 (D 1924). The record for most vice presidential ballots is 5 (R 1868).
The most recent example was in 1940. Wendell Willkie (a former Democrat) came into the convention trailing Thomas Dewey for the nomination. His supported packed the galleries with people chanting “We Want Willkie.” Party leaders (who determined the candidate) took this as a sign of public enthusiasm for Willkie, and he was given the nomination.
William Jennings Bryan also got nominated in 1986 by making his famous “Cross of Gold” speech that electrified the convention.
The 1920 Democratic convention took 44 votes before they decided on James M. Cox. There was no strong candidate (24 people were nominated) and, back then, the Democrats required a 2/3rds majority to nominate.
In 1924, the Democrats took 102 ballots. This time, there were only two major candidates, Al Smith, and William Gibbs McAdoo. Smith was a Catholic, a major disqualification back then, and McAdoo was associated with the Ku Klux Klan (not a member, but he refused to repudiate them when asked and was viewed as favorable toward them). The Klan supported McAdoo wholeheartedly, even holding a rally for him*, and obviously detested Smith. With the 2/3rds rule, there was no chance of a nominee. Eventually, both Smith and McAdoo stepped down, and John Davis was nominated.
*The Klan was probably stronger in the 20s than any time in their history, being set up primarily as a way to enrich the Klan officers by selling Klan materials.
Well, the 1986 speech was a shocker too, especially because:
[ul]
[li]The speaker had been dead for 61 years at the time.[/li][li]It wasn’t even a Presidential election year.[/li][li]The speech varied from the original only in specifically greeting Opal Cat.[/li][li]Nobody gave a flying euphemism about precious-metal standards for currency any more, after Bretton Woods.[/li][/ul]
