The Rockies have traded starting catcher Chris Ianetta for starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood of the Angels. The new catcher will be Ramon Hernandez from the Reds, who is anticipated to ease the way for a prospect more than the much younger Ianetta could.
Chatwood, despite a year’s experience, can only be viewed as a prospect, but, boy, do the Rockies need pitching.
The Rockies gave Ianetta a long try, and he never quite clicked. I suppose it’s a worthwhile trade.
I’m kind of curious to hear that one myself.
I like Valentine, but I think I prefer he be somewhere I can enjoy him as a neutral observer. Boston is perfect.
The Dodgers have added soon-to-be 36 year-old Adam Kennedy to their infield on a one-year, $800k contract. The news seems more grim by the day about Hiroki Kuroda returning, so we’ll see how that hole gets plugged.
The spirit of Gil Hodges is quietly weeping.
The Valentine hiring shows Larry Lucchino is in charge in the front office, not Ben Cherington. It also shows John Henry doesn’t really give a damn, or he’d have straightened that out a long time ago himself.
I think this is definitely true.
Which is probably good news for Red Sox haters. Lucchino is a horses ass.
Valentine could go either way, either be really good for turning the Sox around or fail in spectacular fashion.
I wonder if it has anything to do with Darvish? Do Bobby V’s ties to Japan help them land the kid?
They just got over Dice K, that could leave a burning sensation.
OK, you got me started.
First of all, a disclaimer: I am not really sure that a manager has more than the most neglible effect on a team’s performance. I’d guess that the difference between the best manager who ever lived and the worst manager who ever lived is maybe four games over the course of a season, meaning that the difference between any two guys chosen at random is even smaller. But for the purposes of the conversation, let’s assume that managers matter.
Gil Hodges is right out. In four seasons his winning percentage was lower than Valentine’s or Johnson’s, and both of those guys lasted six years versus Hodges’ four. Essentially, Hodges had one really great season (1969). That his team won the World Series in Hodges’ best year and Valentine’s team lost the World Series in Valentine’s best year is not, in my mind, particularly interesting.
So it’s Johnson or Valentine. Davey Johnson’s winning percentage with the Mets was .592, and Valentine’s was .532, so Johnson was clearly more succesful in an absolute sense.
But if we’re going to judge the value of a manager, we have to at least try to figure out how to value them independent of their players.
So.
The year before Davey got to the Mets (1983), they were bad. 68 wins. In 1984, they won 90 games. Some of this might be credited to Johnson, obviously, but other differences between 1983 and 1984 include:
The year before Valentine got to the Mets (1996), they were bad (71 wins). In Valentine’s first (full) year, they won 88. The main changes between the two teams:
So Johnson ressurrected a bad Mets team - by adding an MVP first baseman, two future All-Stars, and Dwight Gooden. Valentine added an excellent first baseman and a journeyman pitcher who hadn’t pitched 50 innings or more in the major leagues since 1992, and effected almost a comparable improvement.
Over the next five years, each manager had considerable success. Each made the playoffs twice. Each made the World Series once (Johnson won, Valentine didn’t). But, again:
Johnson had access for most of his run to Doc Gooden, who at the time was a mortal lock for the Hall of Fame and the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball. Guys who played second, third, or even fourth banana to Gooden included Ron Darling (All-Star), Sid Fernandez (ditto), David Cone, Bob Ojeda (a really, really good pitcher), and Rick Aguilera. His lineups generally included one of the five most feared hitters of the half-decade (Darryl Strawberry), Hernandez, a hall-of-fame catcher in the latter part of his prime (Gary Carter), Howard Johnson, Kevin McReynolds.
The team Johnson took to the World Series had Lenny Dykstra and Mookie Wilson with Strawberry in the outfield. Wally Backman was in that lineup, hitting .320. Howard Johnson and Kevin Mitchell were bench players. This was a team full of great players, and was throughout Johnson’s time with the team.
Valentine, on the other hand… well, he had a Hall-of-Fame catcher in Mike Piazza for most of his run. He had John Olerud, the poor man’s Hernandez. He had Edgardo Alfonso. Robin Ventura was pretty good. But he never had a Darryl Strawberry in the outfield, or even really a Kevin McReynolds. His best pitchers were mostly Al Leiter, injury-prone Mike Hampton, and retreads like Reed, Glendon Rusch, Steve Trachsel, or Orel Hershiser at 40.
Valentine’s World Series team had the following three guys starting in the outfield: Benny Agbayani, Derek Bell, and Jay Payton. Ventura was still in the lineup but on the downswing of his career. Shortstop Mike Bordick was terrible. Apart from Melvin Mora, you have never heard of anyone on the bench. The rotation had Leiter and Hampton - who were good pitchers though not on the level of Doc in 85-88 - and then three guys with ERAs over 4.00.
Actually, I think the 1999 team is an even better example. That team won 97 games. They got good performances from Olerud, Piazza, Ventura, and Rickey Henderson (!), but the lineup also included Rey Ordonez and an unholy mishmash of outfielders: Agbayani, Brian McRae, Darryl Hamilton, Roger Cedeno. Not one starting pitcher posted an ERA under 4.00 or an ERA+ better than 105. This team won 97 games!
Davey Johnson was very successful with the Mets, but in my view, that team underachieved. The mid-to-late 80s Mets had two players (Doc and Darryl) who were on their way to being all-timers, somewhat lesser stars - but still stars - in Hernandez and Carter, superb rotation and bench depth, and a cast of solid supporting players - Mitchell, McReynolds, Howard Johnson, Backman, even George Foster - that most teams would envy. Those were great teams, and they should have won 90 games every year. That they won only one World Series - that they made the playoffs only twice - these are disappointments. That was a ton of talent collected in one place and it melted down, underachieved, and eventually collapsed into an unholy mess… and it happened on Johnson’s watch.
Valentine had teams where the players were mostly good but flawed. His lineups had huge talent holes; his rotations were medicore-to-above-average. His most transcendant talent was Piazza, a defensive liability at catcher. That 1999 team had no business winning 97 games or making the playoffs at all; that 2000 team should never have made the World Series. If it is possible for a good manager to improve the performance of lesser talent, than Valentine did this for six years for the Mets.
It astounds me - astounds me - that Mets fans don’t appreciate more what Valentine did for this organization. He went to the World Series exactly as many times as Davey Johnson with about 75% as much talent on his roster. He’s the best the Mets ever had, and the Red Sox will be happy they have him now.
You’re overrating Dwight Freaking Gooden somewhat. He was amazing in 1985, but after that he was only Andy Pettitte good, not Roger Clemens good.
ERA+ from 86 - 89: 129 119 102 113. That doesn’t put him in the top 5 for that stretch. (Orel Hershiser, Roger oh hi Clemens, Frank Viola, Bret Saberhagen, Mike Scott).
I admit I was a little surprised to see it asserted that Dwight Gooden, who isn’t a Hall of Famer and does not deserve to be, was greater than Gary Carter, who is and does.
It’s interesting to ask, though, if Davey Johnson does not bear responsibility for Gooden never being a Hall of Famer. Gooden’s greatest seasons were his first two; after that he declined, going from being a really good pitcher to just sort of hanging around. The thing is, he reached mediocrity by the time he was in his mid 20s, and it was Johnson who
While I agree that a manager’s in-game decisions rarely have much of an impact, his large scale decisions can have a HUGE impact… and often have an impact that goes beyond the manager’s tenure. Cito Gaston hurt Shawn Green’s career, and in so doing hurt the Blue Jays even after he’d been fired, as they were forced to trade Green since he rightfully didn’t like Toronto management. How do you measure that? How do you measure the impact of Davey Johnson on the likelihood that Dwight Gooden got into the nose candy?
I don’t know exactly - but I wouldn’t want Davey Johnson managing my team.
With the Mets he was - Carter really only had a couple seasons at a Hall of Fame level with the Mets. Gooden’s 1985 was one of the greatest pitching seasons of all time (the third-highest pitching wins above replacement since World War I, behind only Carlton '72 and Gibson '68 and ahead of anything Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, or Randy Johnson ever did).
The Dodgers have apparently filled out their rotation by signing Chris Capuano to a two-year, $10 million deal.
Okay my own disclaimer: Evaluating managers as an outsiders in exceedingly difficult as there are too many factors that we are unable to see, thus there is a nonzero chance I have no idea what I’m talking about.
That said I think you are underestimating the success gap between the two. The Mets rank in the NL starting in '85 was 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd(t). Put those Mets in the wild card era and they are a perennial playoff team. Valentine’s teams on the other hand never won a division and never finished better than 4th best team in the league.
Now you can argue that Johnson had more talent, and he certainly did, but much of it was homegrown, so you have to give him at least some credit for developing it. Johnson also was really creative in using his talent, I mean he had Kevin Mitchell at short at one point and was great with platoons in general. My favorite is when he alternated lefty and right pitchers in the outfield, so he could continually have pitching matchup advantages.
Valentine was really good and finding talent in random places, but he had a tendency to stick with his guy a bit too much to the detriment of the team.
Disclaimer: Evaluating managers as an outsiders in exceedingly difficult as there are too many factors that we are unable to see so there is a nonzero chance I have no idea what I’m talking about.
Toronto acquires Jeff Mathis from Anaheim for Brett Cecil.
Mathis is the worst hitter in the major leagues who is not a pitcher, so hopefully we aren’t going to see much of him.
The SEC is investigating the Miami Marlins. As Jeff Passan puts it,
Jeffrey Loria is a scumbag.
It’s not quite official yet, but the Marlins are going to sign Jose Reyes away from the Mets for $106 million over six years. The team will have an option for a seventh year that would make the deal worth $120 million. This comes a day or two after the Marlins signed Health Bell for $27 million over three years. Supposedly next they’re going to make a bigger push for Pujols, but I still think he ends up back in St. Louis.
Amazing how much money becomes available for players when you get the taxpayers to build you a stadium…
That said, I’m not that Reyes + Bell at those prices is enough to push them past the Braves and Phillies. Add in Pujols (God Forbid!) or Fielder and then maybe we should start talking…
I guess Hanley moves to third?
In a vacuum I guess $106/6 is reasonable for Reyes, but man those recurrent leg injuries have to up the risk of him playing to that contract, no?
They do, but Reyes can miss a month every year and still be easily worth that contract. SS to can hit and field are are insanely valuable.
If only I rooted for a large market team…
I know you trust in Alderson, at least provisionally, so talk me into not freaking out about this.