The Major League Baseball Playoff and Predictions Thread

Cafe Society
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Well, with the Rockies pulling off the greatest two-week stretch run in baseball history, we have our playoff matchups. Here’s your Division Series battles, so make your predictions!

National League

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) vs. 3.Chicago Cubs (85-77)

Has there ever been a time when the BEST team in the league was just 90-72? This is partiually parity, but it’s also partially due to the NL losing a lot of games to the AL.

The D-Backs are arguably the worst 90-win team in the history of baseball; they actually allowed more runs than they scored, and were very, very lucky to win as many games as they did. There aren’t any REALLY good hitters here; Eric Byrnes had a really good season but it’s not like he’s Albert Pujols, and beyond Brandon Webb and Jose Valverde the pitching’s not spectacular. Chicago is legitimately a good, but not great, team, with vasty superior pitching. Webb could win two games for Arizona and steal this one, but Chicago’s better in every other way so I’m going for the Cubs in four.

  1. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) vs. 4. Colorado Rockies (90-73)

Geez, I don’t know who to cheer for; the team that went on a huge hot streak to knock a New York team out of the playoffs, or the team that went on the greatest end-of-season hot streak EVER.

Thsi Phillies squad is actually similar to the last Phillies squad to make the playoffs, which walked off the field in shock in 1993 to fourteen years of October golf. They’re all hitting, and no pitching; then as now, the Phils have a tremendous attack featuring a multitude of guys who can get on base and hit home runs, starring an exciting, scrappy leadoff man. The pitching is, however, highly suspect, with a legitimate ace backed up by a grab bag of guys featuring a talented but frighteningly inconsistent closer.

Although Coors Field isn’t as much of a super-hitter-paradise as it once was it still warps offensive numbers quite a lot, so actually the Rockies’ hitting is not as fabulous as it appears, and their pitching is much better than it appears. Colorado’s pitching is going to be hard pressed to stop the major leagues’ best offense, but I’m not sure the Phillies could get my sister out. The teams looke evenly matched, and in that case always bet on the team with better starting pitching. Rockies in four, or five, or maybe three.

American League

  1. Boston Red Sox (96-66) vs. 3. Anaheim/Los Angeles/California (94-68)

Boston was actually even a bit better than the record suggest, but the loss of Tim Wakefield is a bit disconcerting. Still, they present the league’s finest pitching staff by a fairly wide margin - they allowed 42 runs FEWER than the next-best team, Toronto, which is a lot of runs - and Tim Wakefield was actually worse than the average Sox pitcher.

Anaheim is, statistically, a bit worse in almost every important respect, but the upfront pitching is respectably frightening, with Lackey and Escobar capable of beating absolutely anyone. The Angels may want to go to a 3-man rotation, because it’s a huge dropoff after Jered Weaver, and if they do, who knows. I’ll go with Boston in 4, but you never know with starting pitching that good.

  1. Cleveland Indians (96-66) vs. 4. New York Yankees (94-68)

Yawn, the Yankees again. Let me give you the Fox broadcast now: Jeter, Jeter, Jeter, Jeter, Jeter. The story here will probably be what Joe Torre does with his rotation, which is essentially Wang and Pettite and Pray They Forget It. The Yankees present the highest scoring offense in baseball (I gave the Phils credit for being better because they don’t use a DH, but you could argue that) and it’s just a frightening thing to face; everyone can get on base and most of them hit home runs. The TEAM batted .290. Any team that can score that easily can beat anyone, but they need the pitching to not blow up, as it was prone to do from time to time.

The Indians, by contrast, have a reputation for being a big scoring team that they do not deserve; their offense was only a bit above the AL average, and while they have some excellent hitters, there are weak spots in the lineup and their big guns aren’t as elite as New York’s. The pitching is much better than the Yankees’, however, with the 1-2 of Sabathia and Carmona having better years than any Yankee starter, and a reasonably tolerable back end. The bullpen’s a mixed bag.

New York is a better team numberswise in the 2007 season, but Cleveland is the pitching team, which is an advantage in postseason ball, so I don’t know who to pick and will go with the team with home field advantage: Cleveland in 5.

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Great Analysis, especially on the Fox Broadcasters. You forgot that they will take time out to talk about “is this Clemens last hurrah?” and the “Joba Rules and his crippled dad”. They will occasionally forget the teams still need to play. BTW: I think most of the Yankee games are on TBS.

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) vs. 3.Chicago Cubs (85-77)
    I love Lou Pinella and I don’t believe in the Diamondbacks. For no rational reason, I will pick the Cubs to win in 5.

  2. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) vs. 4. Colorado Rockies (90-73)
    Rockies are on a roll, Phillies are on a roll. 3 games in Philly. Both parks are tough on pitchers. Neither Bullpen impress me. I think the Philly’s manager (Charlie Manuel) is a terrible in game manager, so I will go with Rockies in an exciting 5.

  3. Boston Red Sox (96-66) vs. 3. Anaheim/Los Angeles/California (94-68)
    I feel more comfortable on AL teams. I think the Red Sox have the edge in Starting pitching. The Line-ups seem close. Mike Scioscia is the best Manager in the Post Season and Francona is Francona. The Red Sox are better, but Scioscia will steal a game or two. I predict Red Sox in 5.

  4. Cleveland Indians (96-66) vs. 4. New York Yankees (94-68)
    This one is easy for me, the MVP, the Captain & Jorge will come through, Joba will make the difference and Cleveland will lose several games in the last 3 innings.
    Yanks in 4.

Jim

Game 1: Yankees at Indians, Thu., Oct. 4, 6:30 pm, TBS, WCBS-880 AM, WQEW-1560 AM
Game 2: Yankees at Indians, Fri., Oct., 5, 5 pm, TBS, WCBS-880 AM, ESPN-1050 AM
Game 3: Indians at Yankees, Sun., Oct., 7, 6:30 pm, TBS, WCBS-880 AM, ESPN-1050 AM
Game 4*: Indians at Yankees, Mon., Oct. 8, 6 pm, TBS, WCBS-880 AM, ESPN-1050 AM
Game 5*: Yankees at Indians, Wed., Oct.10, 5 pm, TBS, WCBS-880 AM, ESPN-1050 AM

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Truth is, in a short series, we’re just taking blind guesses. Over 100 games, I’d confidently take the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and Diamondbacks, but in 5 games, there’s no intelligent way to analyze things. If I get all 4 series right here, it’s just dumb luck.

But I’ll say the Phillies and Rockies win in the NL. Then the Red Sox and Yankees win in the AL.

A-Rod will have a killer series, putting up huge numbers against the Indians… but the people who’ve said he’s not a “true Yankee” and that he never comes through in “big games” or “big series” will decide the first round of the playoffs doesn’t count as a big series, and his numbers don’t prove he isn’t a choker.

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um, not a huge baseball fan here, and maybe this is just a typo or something, but why does it seem like colorado has played one more game than everyone else?

i just went through the final standings, and i see colorado with 163 games played, and all the other teams with 162 games played.

wtf? is this a universal typo, or did i miss something? i’m seeing the same records from site to site to site… how is one team credited with an extra game played?

5

They played a one game playoff last night to decide the Wild Card vs. the Padres. These one game playoffs count toward the regular season for Stats.

Jim

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  1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) vs. 3.Chicago Cubs (85-77)
    I think the D-Backs have been slipping lately. They won’t be able to hold up their inflated record in the post season. Cubs win in 4 games

  2. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) vs. 4. Colorado Rockies (90-73)
    Both teams will be cranking out the runs, and every game will come down to the bull pen. It could get messy, but I think Colorado will squeeze out a few more clutch hits in the late innings. Rockies in 5 games

I haven’t payed any attention to the AL this year, so I have no idea who might win.

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Just to expand on **What Exit?'s ** answer, at the end of the regular season of 162 games, Colorado and San Diego were tied for the wild card title for the National League. They had a one-game playoff, which Colorado won. This game counts as part of the regular season, so both Colorado and San Diego records shows they played 163 games.

My picks (based more on emotion that hard fact because, let’s face it, astorian is absolutely right) :
Cubs over the D’backs (Cub fan since '63)
Philles over the Rox (hate the wild card, I always want them to lose)
Boston over LAA (no reason)
Cleveland over the Yankees (I hate the Yankees even more than I hate the wild card)

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Ah, here this thread is, along with the usual subjects. Great job on the Fox broadcaster analysis guys. You two need jobs? We’re a bit nuts here in Boston with our sports related conspiracy theories. Which is why many Bostonians believe that Fox has a pro-New York bias when they show Yankee games.

Booo, Yankees evil!

Booo, Fox evil!

Joe Buck, boooooo, THE DEVIL!

Predictions:

Arizona over Chicago. I don’t like it, because I would love to see a Boston/Chicago World Series, but I believe that Arizona is probably the better team. Full disclosure: I haven’t really seen Arizona play this season, but I have seen Chicago. Chicago really didn’t look all that good from what I saw. Sorry.

Philly over Colorado. Really looking forward to this one, and wish I could root for Colorado after watching that fantastic one game playoff. But Philly just seems too strong with the bat, and the Rockies have to cool off eventually.

Boston over Anaheim. Because I have to.

New York and Cleveland. I. Really. Don’t. Know. It feels odd typing the statement, “is stronger than New York…” but that seems to be what a lot of people smarter than me are saying. I think it was trendy two years ago to pick the Twins over NY when they had their 5 game playoff as well. Nope, not gonna do it, my prediction is NY.

Curious absences from the Boston roster: Wakefield, Tavarez, and Buchholz. (Okay, they’re really not curious, they just stand out.)

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Chicago over Arizona - Zambrano is a monster on the road, and I see the Cubs getting out to the 1-0 lead here. Cubs are also more experienced. Cubs in 5.

Colorado over Philly - The Rockies are not just hot, they’ve been the best team in the National League since the end of May. Despite using 9 pitchers Monday night, their lineup is set up perfectly. Jeff Francis is 17-9, 4.22 ERA, 165K’s, 63BB, 1.38 WHIP. If sportswriters credited pitchers in Coors Field the same way they discount hitters there, he’d be a Cy Young candidate. And contrary to popular belief, the Rockies bullpen is strong. Rockies sweep, 17 out of 18.

New York over Cleveland - Like the Rockies, the Yankees are the best team in the American League since May. Love CC Sabathia and Carmona, but not a lot of playoff experience here. Yankees in 5.

Boston over Anaheim - Red Sox are experienced, tough and strong across the board. The Angels were 14-14 in September and just seem to be coasting. BoSox in 4.

NLCS - Tough call. I’ll say CO in 7.

ALCS - NY over Boston in 6.

WS - NY over CO in 6.

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http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=NL&statType=1&sitSplit=&timeSubFrame=15&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

**National League Hitting Stats, Last 30 Days 2007 **

#1 Colorado Rockies - 170 Runs, 292 H, .302 AVG, .499 SLG

#16 (last in NL) Philadelphia Phillies - 144 R, 225 H, .250 AVG, .438 SLG

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My heart tells me to go with the Angels but only because I know this guy. My head tells me that Boston is the team to beat.

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Divisional Series.
Cubs
Phillies
Boston
Cleveland

League Series.
Phillies
Cleveland

World Series.
Cleveland

Phillies are better than the Rockies. The playoffs suit them fine because they don’t have to start people like Adam Eaton. If they could have managed a whole season with the rotation they’ll be able to use in the post-season, they would have won 102 games.

The D-backs. I can’t get past their pythagorean numbers. They might win, but you can’t bet on it.

I used to like Anaheim a lot. If the Red Sox bullpen doesn’t get their heads out of their asses, the Angels could really tee off and win some memorable games (esp with F-Rod closing for the Angels). But, Anaheim is nicked up. If they get decent numbers out of their replacement players and if Vlad is at full strength at the plate, they could win the series.

I just can’t go against Cleveland starting pitchers. CC-Wang is probably a toss up in game 1, but you gotta love Carmona over Pettitte. I guess the Indians pen is a little shaky (I haven’t followed them too much) but people have been getting to Rivera this season too, most recently the O’s on Friday night. If Chamberlain continues his awesomeness, yankees can make up late ground in games, though.

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Phillies were still 4th in runs. . .7th in OBP, about that in OPS, which MLB doesn’t keep (I eyeballed it).

But, I’m not trying to make a point. They’re both insanely hot. I think that most of what made Philly weak this year has been ironed out (as I mentioend before, by virtue of not having to use a whole rotation). But, their bullpen has really come around lately, too.

What you left out was pitching stats. The rockies are #1, but the Phils are #3 in ERA. Of course, that’s not ballpark adjusted, which would probably benefit the Phillies. More runs are scored in Philadelphia than in Colorado (possibly contrary to popular belief).

14

Jeter is the least compelling story. It is going to be A-Rod A-Rod A-Rod. All you will hear about is A-Rod’s MVP year, his post-season woes evey pitch will be checked and double checked. Is he in a slump? Is he choking? That and Joba. Jeter will hardly be mentioned unless he has a monster series.

Yankees in 4

15

I’ma gonna pick:

Arizona
Colorado
Boston
New York

I really feel these series are tossups, and I hope like hell that my team (Cleveland) kicks the Yankees in an embarrassing way. I’m just protecting my heart by refusing to believe in it.

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Cleveland over NYY in 4.
Los Angeles Angels of Southern California over Bos in 4.

ALCS: Cleveland over LAAAAAAAA in 6
Arizona over the Cubbies in 5. Barkman’s brother is blamed.

Colorado over Philadelphia in 5.

NLCS: Colorado over Arizona in 6.

WS: Played in Milwaukee, due to snow in late October early November in both Cleveland and Denver. Cleveland in 7.

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Cubs in four.

All other series are inconsequetial. :wink:

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What am I doing in a baseball thread? I could care less about MLB! Well, lemme tell you something…

See, I’m a NY Giants fan who lives close to Philadelphia, meaning I’m surrounded by cretins who would think nothing of starting a moronic “E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!” chant in the middle of a wake.

So, last Sunday, the scumbirds came to the Meadowlands for a visit, and got fricking smoked. The Giants got more sacks on Donovan McNabb than some teams will see the entire season. We woke our daughter twice with all the whooping and cheering. Lemme tell you, as someone who hates the Eagles very nearly as much as I love the Giants, that was one of the greatest games I’ve ever seen. An absolute thing of beauty.

And then the fricking Phillies had to go and ruin it.

All the sports talk radio stations I get are Philly-based. Now, normally a day like Monday would have been filled with me laughing with unbridled glee as the jerks on WIP and 1050-ESPN laid out their boo-hoos, conjured up lame excuses, and repeatedly whined “Well if Westbrook had been playing…”. But no…going by what you heard on the radio this week, the Eagles might not have even played a game on Sunday. They get fricking smeared, and I don’t even get to gloat because the damn Phillies are yoinking all the headlines.

I usually don’t care much about MLB, but for the moment:

Let’s go Rockies <clap clap, clapclapclap>!!

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Um, this would be a neat trick since the Phillies and the Rockies are playing each other … but as a Phillies fan who is having a VERY BAD DAY, I would like to ask how this could be arranged, please.

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ROCKIES 4-2. 14 out of 15, baby. Team of destiny.