I will give my guess as follows:
#1: 40%,
#2: 50%
#3: 9%
#4: 1%
I guess that means I will vote 2/B.
I would pick pretty much the exact same percentages.
I think the Republicans will seek to minimize this hearing as much as they can get away with.
The only way I see Trump being removed from office is if enough evidence is presented at the hearing that public sentiment shifts away from him to the extent that the Republicans in the Senate decide they need to sacrifice Trump to save their own jobs. There’ll be no principles involved; it’ll just be a question of whether their self-interest tells them to vote for Trump or against him.
Yes, which is why I gave that a chance. They may just decide to cut their losses and go with Pence. I might even give it 2%.
I still wish Pelosi would delay sending the Articles (and Managers) over to the Senate, until Mulvaney and McGahn and Pompeo testify before the House committees.
We’d have the benefit of Trump officially in the history books as Impeached---- without the unwholesome spectacle of Republican Senators semi-officially stamping “extort foreign leaders for help in your re-election campaign” as A-OK Presidential conduct.
Point 2
There is a trial, but the republicans make it all about the Ukraine hacking our democracy and Joe Biden and his son being corrupt criminals. Trump, who is an afterthought in this trial, is found not guilty.
Yep, that’s my best guess.
I’d also agree with the percentages except some of the 9% and a tiny bit of the 50% would be something in between - a trial that is a superset of fair, which calls many of the relevant and a lot of the irrelevant witnesses and thus is both an actual trial and a trial-by-proxy of Biden.
I’d say 90% chance of quickie dismissal, and 10% chance of prolonged grandstanding.
0% of anything resembling fair and adequate process.
Oddly we have seven votes for long & fair. But no one has posted that opinion. Hmm.
I also hope Pelosi holds on to the articles of impeachment after the vote until McConnell relents and has a real trial. Deny them the “exoneration” high and have some more hearings after the courts rule on the subpoenas for Bolton, Mulvaney, et al. Drag it out, death by a thousand cuts. It will drive him crazy.
I’m confused by what you mean here. Once the House sends the impeachment articles to the Senate, it’s in the Senate’s hands. Pelosi and the House have no control over what McConnell does or does not do.
I voted #1, but it was basically a coin flip between numbers 1 and 2.
- Pelosi holds a vote on the Articles of Impeachment.
- Trump is impeached by the House.
- Pelosi refuses to send the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate.
- Profit!
Why can’t I just vote for short trial without the editorializing?
McConnell does little unilaterally; if enough of his party disagreed he would not be majority leader.
Short real trial. All Republicans vote to acquit.
I voted #1, I’m not seeing McConnell back off at all. That’s just not his style.
How about, at least one Republican senator gets confused and thinks it actually IS about Biden, and accidentally votes “guilty”?
Hey, a guy can dream.
I pretty much agree with this. Except I think they’ll obfuscate with crap about Ukrainian Crowdstrike servers, the Steele Dossier, and how everyone involved in the investigation was unfair and biased against Trump and probably a Democrat deep state meanie. McConnell and Graham will “relent” and agree to hold a “fair process”, but it will really be an inverse show trial, designed to let the guilty off rather than punish the innocent. A third of Americans will be satisfied by this, a third will be disgusted, and a third won’t bother to look up from the porn on their phones long enough to watch.
Disclaimer: My political predictions are always – and I mean always – wrong.
I say it’s over within 2 weeks. 4 tops. Acquittal.
I think Susan Collins will vote guilty, but GOP guilty votes won’t even get close to double digits & she might be the only one.