That’s what I wanted to know! Thanks! Would you care to comment in general about guessing vs. skill?
The reason to throw something other than the unhittable pitch is to keep the batter guessing. if the batter knows with 100% certainty, then he can time and aim his swing to match. However if he isn’t sure if it’s a fastball there or a cutter 3 inches away, which do you go for? Remember, the bat is only 2.5 inches in diameter. A swing for a fastball will miss the cutter completely and vice versa.
The swing starts when the ball is still 30 feet away yet 50% of the movement is in the last 15 feet.
Another factor is the batter can’t accurately judge to a fraction of an inch as to the arrival point of the ball. And any pitch may not move the same as the previous pitch did. Maybe the curve only breaks 17 inches rather than 18. Maybe the fastball comes in 1 mph faster than usual and is a half inch higher as a result.
At the MLB level, I don’t think there is much, if any, wild guessing done by either pitcher or hitter. Scouts do a ton of work to prepare pitchers and hitters for a game. Part of the skill is making an educated guess at what to throw or what is going to be thrown.
A lot of people think Manny Ramirez used to just show up and do what he did. Actually, he was one of the biggest film junkies. He watched a ton of tape on every pitcher to know their strengths, weaknesses and tendencies.
Curt Schilling at the end of his career didn’t have great stuff, but he was a great scout. He compiled as much data as he could on every hitter to learn their strengths and weaknesses.
As Yogi Berra said, “Baseball is 90% mental. The other half is physical.” His math was fuzzy, but the point remains. Raw skill can only get you so far in baseball.
Something else to remember in the “closer vs starter” conversation is that, while a closer can pitch 2, 3 days in a row, a starter will normally ice his elbow after an outing to keep inflammation down. A starter will normally rest 3 or 4 days between starts. He sometimes can pitch on shorter rest, but managers are usually reluctant to utilize a starter off of their normal rest period.
NYT animation video demonstrating in an easy-to-understand way what made Rivera so hard to hit.
Closers are almost exclusively in the 9th inning, so much so that it becomes news if they pitch for more than one inning. But that’s just modern tradition; there are plenty of cases wehre using the closer in the 8th inning makes sense (most obvious, if the 3-4-5 hitters are due up).
However, managers don"t do this because it would be unconventional. If they lose, everyone will call it a bonehead move, and too many bonehead moves get you fired.
Bringing in the closer for a 3-run save in the ninth is pretty much a waste of your best reliever, but “it’s a save situation” so it just doesn’t get questioned by most people.
This is important to remember.
A long time ago, when I was a wee lad and closer was an evolving role, a guy named Goose Gossage pitched for the White Sox, Pirates and Yankees. As a Pirate and Yankee, he would pitch 2 or more innings multiple times to earn his save. He was a pure power pitcher, and he threw 100 mph (± 2 mph) each inning.
Baseball has evolved such that a specialist, like a closer, is worth his weight in platinum. So, you bring him in only in the 9th to do his work.
It has a lot less to do with the pitcher’s ability to throw multiple innings per game for a few games in a row, and more to do with the risk to the investment. More work increases wear and tear on the guy’s arm, and theoretically can ruin that investment.
Every now and then, you see a premier closer work the last out or 2 in the 8th and continue in the 9th, if it is a play-off game or a must win.
However, many teams now have the “set-up guy” (who pitches the 8th) and the closer (who pitches the 9th). The closer is usually the guy who is more mentally strong, and knows the game is riding on his ability to get the other guys out. Some guys never move out of the set-up role, but most closers were once set-up guys who moved into the closer role after the guy in the closer role moved on, retired, or started getting shelled.
Personally, I think relief pitchers can throw for more than one inning often, but the game no longer permits it. Not officially, but because of the evolution of the pitcher, a closer won’t even come out of the bullpen unless there is a save opportunity.
This is an excellent illustration. Thanks!
[quote=“pianodave, post:12, topic:719198”]
Yes, but why can’t they just not swing? What closer is going to throw three real fastballs down the middle when they are known for their unhittable pitch?[/QUPTE]
Because it’s not that simple. You know, you could try watching baseball.
Even in the case of a pitcher who only throws one or two pitches, the position of the pitch varies. Mariano Rivera might have thrown the cutter inside, or maybe he threw is down and away. Or maybe up and in, or maybe high and outside. If you guessed incorrectly, you missed. The difference between making solid contact and popping the ball up is a quarter of an inch. And if you’re against a great pitcher, no, you simply can’t take every pitch because most of them will pass through part of the strike zone. In the major leagues, ANY error in how you swing, or don’t swing, will mean failure. There is simply no time to not be perfect in your decision and the execution of your swing.
[quote=“RickJay, post:30, topic:719198”]
This is why I come to Straight Dope, because I’m curious. Your explanation works for me. Now I understand that there’s a lot more strategy that I don’t see. Every move and pitch has a purpose. Thanks.
You’re overlooking the mental part of the game. Most closers do better knowing they are the closer and will be pitching the 9th. So you are helping to maximize their success by the modern by the book way of using closers.
Then why is there no evidence that bullpens are actually more successful now than they used to be? I think I saw a stat that 9th inning leads are preserved 95% of the time, pretty much regardless of era.
Ah yes, here’s a discussion: http://joeposnanski.com/the-closer-you-get/
Seems to me that having a specialized closer didn’t really change how often teams close out leads at all.
And of course, ninety percent of the game is half mental.
So teach your kid that cutter. Over his career, Mariano Rivera averaged around $119k per inning pitched.
I’ve had a couple of baseball questions that I’ve posted to the Dope in the past couple of weeks. I’ve learned a lot about my favorite game, and I just wanted to express my appreciation and thanks to those who have posted in my threads. I now am watching baseball with a keener eye and it is much more enjoyable. So thanks to all!
Pardon my extreme baseball ignorance, but could a team simply have 9 closer-type pitchers and have them each pitch one inning of the game? Seems like it would make for a dominant pitching performance while keeping everyone’s arms and shoulders rested.
Teams have a hard enough time finding one good closer and a couple of set-up men; getting nine on the same team would be prohibitively expensive.
And even closers can’t pitch every night, even if it’s just one inning. Even if you somehow managed to accumulate that many pitchers who were good, you’d need other pitchers to eat up innings on the days your starting 9 couldn’t go.
If you wanted every inning pitched by a different pitcher, you’d have no room left on your roster for anyone to play any of the other positions. You’d need 20-25 pitchers, since you’d need at least two sets of nine pitchers, plus fill ins for when someone had a bad day or was hurt.