Oh my friend, you better start getting ready for some disappointment. The South African’s demonstrated England’s Achilles heel on Saturday night and both New Zealand and Australia would have taken very, VERY close notice.
What saved England - and remember the game WAS only 6 all at half time - was that South Africa’s forwards showed a shocking lack of match fitness in the final third of the contest. (That period of the game otherwise known as the “business end” of a test match).
Now, in the interests of fairness, it has to be said that no less an authority than former Wallaby captain and “inside centre” legend Tim Horan has openly described young Wilkinson as the finest player in the world at the moment. Very high praise indeed - especially from a man with such an impeccable pedigree.
However, some very close scrutiny has shown England’s achilles heel, and if the Springbok forwards had been fitter, they would have been able to keep up the contest much more powerfully.
Clive Woodward has found himself blessed with a very “southern hemisphere” forward pack at the moment, and England’s current golden era is no accident as a result. They are very fit, fast and mobile. But they’re playing a tactical 4 v 2 pattern which an opposing side with equally fit and fast forward pack will be able to nullify.
Effectively, the tactic is thus - in any given group of phases, 4 forwards join the ruck and two forwards hang back directly behind the ruck to act as two running options to take the ball further up the middle. But at the same time, young Wilkinson hangs back at the same distance - approximately 7 yards or so - and he acts as the 3rd option for England’s half back in terms of ball distribution.
To counter this tactic, the opposition have to stay ultra focused and really mark up on the two forwards who are hanging back behind the ruck. The moment the ball is in the halfbacks hands, the opposition loose forwards also have to adopt the same 4 v 2 defensive pattern and make sure that both of the two roving England forwards are not missed if they end up being the ball carriers.
And yet, at the same time, the opposition back line has to be fit enough to sprint up onto both Wilkinson and the England back line to ensure that Wilkinson’s options are nullified.
Well, for the first 2 thirds of the SA v England match, the Springbok forwards were up to the task - and it was no mistake that the Springbok backline had some frightening attacking options as a result.
But fitness told the key, and the England forwards kept their discipline in the final third of the match much better than the Springbok forwards, and the points started coming home to England as a result.
Mark my words however - both the All Blacks and the Wallabies are far, far fitter than the Springboks. I don’t know quite why, but they are - and they’re more disciplined too in terms of not giving away penalties.
Also, in the final Australia vs New Zealand test match this year, Australia actually out pointed the All Blacks in the 2nd half. This says to me that the Wallabies have purposely been tapering with a very specific game plan and match fitness goal in mind.
This World Cup will definitely NOT be a cakewalk for England come quarterfinal time.