Man, watching my portfolio is making me dizzy! It’s been a roller coaster ride since January! I am really starting to be concerned, because gasoline/energy prices keep climbing, and the government doesn’t seem to care! This will take a huge bite out of purchasing power, and likely stall the recovery. Also, I don’t see Bush concerned at all about the HUGE trade deficit-the man is supposed to be a lapdog of the capitalists-he sure isn’t giving a damn about the state of business.
One bright spot-if the capture (and death-hopefully) of Osama Bin Laden is at hand, then we should see amassive rally on Wall Street. If the news continues to be bad (more soldiers killed in the endless war in Iraq), then I can see the stock market breaking-a 500 point drop some day would not surprise me.
Anyway past history (I know. it means nothing) says we should have a rally in the last summer of a presidential term-I hope the gods smile upon us! :wally
I’m betting the Dow will close below 9500 at least once before the election. Mark my words.
For the last several years, it seems, sometime in late June or early July we get a blow-off top. Then the market swoons and sputters until late October or early November. Since I said this, it probably won’t happen this year. 
I really believe the threat of terrorism is holding back the market. There is still a big ‘risk premium’ being charged. Companies don’t want to make long-term investments when they know that a major terrorist attack could throw us back in recession. I think this is also depressing job creation.
And I thnk the terrorist situation in Iraq and maybe elsewhere is going to get quite a bit worse as the year goes on. Nearing both the election and the June 30 date for handing over Iraq, the terrorists are going to step up their efforts to destabilize the situation. That means going after people in Iraq, and also increasingly trying to split the coalition. So I don’t know if we’re going to see a really great rally until this situation stabilizes.
What threshold do you want to use? Today, January 1st, or 6 months ago?
Don’t know where you have been but my funds have gone up over 30% since last summer? So do you want another rally on top of the one we’ve just had?