Are you suggesting that in the US, inflation will go to triple digits? 
Yeah, the rest of the world isn’t going to just sit passively while Trump has his temper tantrum; they can’t. They’ll all be building new trade networks that don’t include the US. And even after Trump gives up or drops dead, they are unlikely to ever again let themselves become as thoroughly economically entwined with the US as in the past; they can’t afford that and can’t trust us.
So much of the harm to the US is going to be permanent - and all self inflicted.
if you are “hitting” stuf with 50% price hikes, what do you think their competitors will do?
(hint: 49%)
That looks awfully like 50% inflation right there. Then the dollar will take a hit (One of Trumps stated goals) – hiking ALL prices a couple points on top of that.
100% (or more) inflation is more likely than a magical recovery
No, that’s a 50% once off price rise.
And it’s not how the CPI is calculated.
You calculate your inflation whichever way you want.
I guarantee you will be buying a lot less groceries for the same money in a year.
Have you ever considered a career as an economic advisor to the White House?
Over here inflation will only blow out to anything above single digits if the US exports a recession.
You can expect something on the order of another Great Depression. Other nations will generally not be hurt as bad as the US, but it won’t be good.
I’m not sure what level of tongue-in-cheek we’re operating at here, so I will just elaborate my position a bit:
My reason for mentioning subsaharan africa in the first place was to give an obvious example of how a trade deficit does not entail exploitation by the country with the relative surplus. If you had to choose between living in a country with median $60k salary (for full-time permanent workers) and can comfortably afford to buy jeans, versus approx 1/20th of that salary to sew the jeans…Ooh it’s a tough one, can I phone a friend?
ETA: Also note that Lesotho’s unemployment rate is four times as high as the US. Something to note when they are on the “They’re takin our jabs” rhetoric.
On your point though about how Lesotho will do, yeah I think their economy will be hit. Just as trade benefits both parties, erecting trade barriers harms both. You’re right that Lesotho can arguably make up for it by just selling goods at a slight discount to their other trading partners.
But there’s a reason that stockmarkets have been falling worldwide; everyone is hurt by this, just to different levels.
If you don’t learn from history, that would be a reasonable diagnosis.
But over here we essentially shut down the country as a response to COVID, and came within the cost of a 474 of avoiding a technical recession. Which unfortunately broke a record run of 28 years without the Big R word. There was a Asian financial crisis which drew in Australia simply because our finance market was the only one in the region that global index funds could withdraw from to reduce their exposure to SE Asia. We avoided a recession then.
If interest rates are low, (and they ain’t going up in a recession), we have had recent experience on how to manage our economy effectively.
We have some pretty good monetary managers running our central banks without an imposed ideological economic dyscalculia. You’d prefer to avoid totally the scenario obviously. And if everybody is running around crying chicken little it will get ugly. But I doubt it will be everybody and in that case I’d back our chances.
As Canadian PM Mark Carney said days ago, “[The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over,” he said.
The US has lost the trust of the world. That means we are buying less, looking for alternatives whenever we can even if they are slightly more expensive, governments are looking at finding alternate suppliers for military hardware or developing more production at home.
Even if Trump and the MAGA crowd were cast out of power today, the hit you have taken will be generational.
Correction: you’re thinking of the Jimmy Carter years. Inflation never hit double digits during the Biden years. The highest was 9.1% over the 12 months ending in June 2022.
Currently, there is NO INFLATION. Zero!
If you put easy to disprove lies in ALL CAPS, it makes them true!
I would rather believe my own eyes than any of this lunatic blathering. Gas prices are already up 20 cents per gallon in my area since 2 weeks ago. I have yet to start looking at groceries/other necessities prices.
And gods forbid a new car and laptop.
There’s a pretty good chance that inflation may not get THAT high, since growth and investment will go down quickly, and unemployment will rise. Of course, once Trump controls monetary policy, get ready for the stagflation. There will be pain, and a lot of it, regardless.
As someone who works in finance, this is all so unbelievable to me. Usually, even the craziest of fringe economic theories have some internal consistency. None of this makes sense. And replacing a 95% price elasticity ratio with 25% tells me this is a “faith based” economic strategy.
But only in the short-, medium- and long-term.
Stagflation is the best inflation.
Well, oil prices are down about 15% due to recession fears and an OPEC increase.
But no, I’m not believing no inflation.
I’d rather believe dozens of randomly chosen words in an incoherent string than anything he xits.
Once he controls that, my prediction about the US dollar emulating the Zimbabwe dollor of yore will be seen as prophetic.
This seemed appropriate, if not quite on the money
Is that when we lose everything we hold deer?