I’ve been seeing articles that Russia is considering annexing Transnistria, a breakaway part of Moldova. There’s even speculation that an attempt by Russia to invade Moldova is being considered. Here’s one article about the situation.
What I don’t get is how Russia can operate in Transnistria to any extent greater than a few special ops sneaking in. It’s surrounded by Ukraine to the east and Moldova in all the other directions. Moldova, in turn, has the largest part of its border with Romania, some with Ukraine, and the rest with Transnistria. It would seem based on the geography that the only way to send in support would be to fly over Romania and then Moldova or go directly across parts of Ukraine that they don’t occupy. What am I missing here? How can they mount any kind of conventional threat given that geography?
For the reasons you mentioned, I don’t think any Russian “invasion” could possibly happen there. Rather, what might happen is that the pro-Russian elements there successfully seize power and pass such pro-Russian laws or measures that Moldova becomes a de facto Crimea 2.0.
Of course, Romania, being a NATO nation, might choose to deny Russia all passage rights and prevent Russians from getting to Moldova. Unless Russia can slowly smuggle in a trickle of Russian forces, or use some legalese to demand that Romania give it the right to fly flights in and out of Moldova.
They couldn’t, but it’d be a distraction. Moldova doesn’t have the power to deal with that situation on their own, so Ukraine would need to be careful of any action on a second front even though the amount of Russian troops in Transnistria is small.
I couldn’t imagine that Russia has that many troops and weaponry already deployed there. It seems like in the worst case scenario Moldova asks Ukraine for help and Ukraine sends in some reserves to mop up the Transnistrian forces and hands back the territory to Moldovan forces afterwards.
One of the largest ammo depots in the world is in Transnistria. And while they’re aren’t a ton of Russian troops there, I’m not suggesting they could invade, just be a big enough pain on the border that Ukraine would need to move attention and troops away from the front.
All of this is just shit-stirring. Cf “Frozen conflict”.
The goal is to make all of the former Soviet & Warsaw pact other than Russia proper, into one giant cesspool of continuous guerilla and gangster warfare.
if they can start a dozen, or better yet 50, small violent "fire"s in a dozen or 50 countries and just let each smolder, slowly destroying local civil society, honest government, and citizen morale, they’ll have accomplished their goal.
It’s not about “war” as Hitler or Stalin or Roosevelt thought of it: geopolitics by intercountry violence. It’s nihilistic dystopianism in the service of crime and plunder. Plus the thrill of knowing you wrecked something so somebody else can’t have it. IOW state-sponsored vandalism
Moldova generally allows Russian troops to transit between Chisinau Airport and Transnistria. Moldova has made such concessions so as not to re-ignite the 1990-1992 Transnistria War.
I visited Transnistria in 1997. The iconography – billboards, statues, street names, and such – is explicitly Soviet. It’s an unusual place.
I was wondering about that aspect of things. My guess is that they still receive their supplies over land from Moldova. My guess is that the Ukraine - Transnistria border is closed, but that’s just a WAG. Either way, if war were to break out, I can’t imagine there would be any way for Transnistria to maintain any supply routes. They would be like West Berlin during the Cold War, except this time during a hot war where supply planes won’t be coming.