First, this has not been one quarter of unenthusiastic growth. We have serious structural deficiencies in the economy of the US. It is foolish and self-serving to pretend that everything is “humming along” until we reach our second quarter of contraction before finally admitting that we have issues. By then, if we desire to take policy steps to ease the effects of the recession, they will be more costly than nipping it in the bud in the beginning.
What we really care about is not some pedantic definition of recession but whether our economy exhibits symptoms consistent with serious illness. If it does exhibit these symptoms, then we as a society can choose to treat it or not. Waiting six months before triumphantly declaring that yes, now we are in a recession, so now we can take ameliorative action is nonsensical. Why wait for a diabetic’s leg to become gangrenous before treating the underlying cause?
Second, while I am not one of the economists quoted in the NYT, I have a resource that they do not: billions upon billions of records of transaction data.
Your article is six weeks old. I am sure you have noticed that quite a bit has happened in the past six weeks. Opinions have definitely changed.
Well…let’s keep it simple as you say. And at least marginally friendly.
I don’t know you. I don’t know what your capabilities are, what your expertise is in this field…or anything else. So…if you feel there is an economic consensus why don’t you simply provide a cite saying so. I’ll read through it and if I’m convinced I’ll agree with you…end of story.
I did notice that article was old…but it was nice because it tied together several opinions in one link. There are other links I looked at that SEEM to say that the jury is still out. You say it isn’t. Fine…let me see a cite that says that, like Global Warming to put it in Al Gores words ‘the debate is over’. Simple.
No, I was responding to your post that said we’re heading for a recession and things are humming along fine. We certainly don’t need stimulus for a humming economy, I’d guess. The unemployment benefits thing was actually a question. Maybe you’re not against a stimulus package, only rate cuts? Or maybe a stimulus package isn’t interference in your book. Who knows?
Well, I do have “Moderator” tagged under my name. ::: sigh :::
The statement in question probably does not quite fall on a bright line side of insult. On the other hand, it is well within the shadows (or even the penumbra) of inappropriate behavior. It claims that one poster’s actions made that poster appear foolish rather than asserting that the poster is foolish or that the poster is a fool. That hardly constitutes praise or gracious behavior.
It was certainly unnecessary and did nothing to promote a healthy discussion and I would urge everyone to avoid repeating this sort of behavior.
= = =
In fact, everyone, I am blowing the ref’s whistle on the whole thread as several of you have decided to take personal insult where simply crotchetiness was the only thing in evidence and several of you have gotten well into the shadows of insult (while not quite stepping over the line). Everyone back off and stick to your perceptions of the issues without commenting on the knowledge, abilities, or personalities of other posters.
(And can’t you people confine your personal squabble to the evening hours rather than throwing them out while I am at work to fester all day long?)
[ /Moderating ]
Um…ok Tom. I apologize…I didn’t feel it was an insult. I also felt it DID illustrate something about using hyperbole. But…you are the Mod so I bow to your wisdom.
Ermm then why are the Republicans in on it. If it is a Democrat plot, then why does Bush mention the weakening economy in the state of the union address?
Since we started guiding the economy, our economy has seen shallower recessions and often only seen “slowdowns” instead of recessions. If you leave the market alone, it is prone to boom and bust cycles.
Wal-Mart is the number one employer in America, so I suppose people better learn to like it. Considering that close to half of Americans earn below $25, 000 and roughly 6% earn $100,000 or more, I don’t think Wal-Mart is generating quality jobs or prosperity.Link, Wal-Mart’s downward push on wages - pdf, Number one employer
Rising prosperity in Asia is creating a demand for medical care. Because there is a shortage of medical care professionals, there will be a global migration of these jobs.
The outsourcing of IT and other white collar jobs is old news. Educated American workers now have to compete in a global market with talent willing to work for less. If the global free market is the inevitable future, the government needs to help U.S. workers make the transition with the same aggression it uses to help American corporations.
I don’t think the high standard of living most Americans have historically enjoyed will continue. Obviously, the standard of living has declined and will continue to decline for the majority of Americans.
xtisme, I live in the United States. I even vote. My mother, however, is British, born and raised with socialism. I grew up in a military home, so I have traveled extensively. I actually lived in Europe and communed among the natives. I have never been to Asia but have noticed the extraordinary modernization and prosperity.
At the end of the day, I do not care a whole lot whether our current conditions fit the formal definition of, well, anything since the definitions themselves are so prone to political haymaking. We can call our current conditions a “schmecession” if it makes the discussion easier.
There is a strong consensus right now that our economy has some rotten fundamentals. We are not just humming along. Whether this will lead to a short “slowdown”, a longer “recession”, a “deep recession” or what, I don’t know. However, all signals, including the consumer spend data I analyze every day, are telling us that we are headed for something. I think it is inefficient to wait until two quarters of contraction have occurred before we seriously consider taking action. Even should our GDP unambiguously demonstrate that we are in a “recession”, we will still have a Weirddave who will claim that GDP numbers are somehow not indicative of the strength of the US economy. Ok.
And when the market produces suboptimal outcomes, there is never a better time for institutions to intervene to keep it competitive. Politicians talk about “free” markets; economists talk about “competitive” markets. There is a big difference.
