We should stay the fuck out, agreed. We should reinstate the nuclear agreement with Iran, even though our dumb president has made that all but impossible. Our pullout from that agreement is, I believe, the factor that started this.
Trump has had a hard on for Iran from the get-go, and I’m sure he wants to find a way to get people behind him because of what he hopes would be a popular cause.
I would not object to selling them weapons to fight with, and maybe providing limited aerial refueling support for a retaliatory strike, but that’s it. We are not Saudi’s mercenary army. Let them fight their own war.
Well, there is little popular support for a war with Iran. Send our people to go die in a war over what? Because Saudi Arabia got hit with some drones? No way.
We are an oil producing country. SA producing less isn’t a automatic loss for us as a whole.
EIA projects the sustained crossover of US to net oil exporter will occur in the fourth quarter of this year, but even as of now the US is only a very marginal net importer: for example the week of 9/13 it was 8.9mil bbd imports, 8.7mil bbd exports. The US still imports 4mil bbd or so of crude net, but exports about the same amount of refined products net. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htm
Anyway that number still being for the moment slight net imports is not the reason there’s such a big potential downside to the US ignoring the world oil market, and specifically ignoring its long term implicit commitment to protect Gulf oil flows.
And at some point one of those conflicting principals has to give, no ‘war with Iran’ v ‘can’t afford to ignore it’. If, that is, ‘war with Iran’ is defined as any shooting action whatsoever. I believe almost everyone, including Trump, despite finger pointing claims to the contrary, would rather some diplomatic or sanctions type action solve this. But sometimes it just doesn’t. Intensifying sanctions doesn’t work if Iran concludes it can openly just attack Arab Gulf states’ oil production/export facilities to strike back. Doing just nothing about that is…ignoring it. Capitulating to Iranian demands is another choice but not without downside either, and which won’t just affect Trump.
P.J. O’Rourke wrote (in a book about the Gulf War) that the press corp had a standing bet of something like a case of champagne to anyone who saw a Saudi lift anything heavier than a 20 dollar bill.
True. While the United States is relatively independent of Saudi oil, we have allies that are not. Our oil production is not projected to reach a level where we can supply oil to Japan, South Korea, China, or Europe. If Saudi oil is cut off, those regions are going to have to turn more heavily to places like Iran or Russia, which would have bad consequences for our foreign policy interests.
But I stick with what I’ve said; I don’t see this as a vital American interest. If there’s a response needed, we should be acting as part of a much wider international coalition.
I was hoping the departure of Bolton would reduce the likelihood of war with Iran. Once again, I seem to have been wrong. I can’t remember the last time I was right about anything in politics.
Has anyone offered an even vaguely plausible reason for us to get involved in this fight? GWB at least concocted a web of lies to justify the invasion of Iraq. They were transparent lies, but there was at least a cover story. This time it just seems like no one is even bothering with a rationale. But I admit I haven’t followed this story as close as I have some of the twenty seven thousand other shitstorms this administration has started.
Why? Why are we considering options at all? Why should we spend a penny helping defend an obscenely wealthy autocratic monarchy with such an abysmal human rights record? Fuck them; let them handle their own bullshit.
Our prior involvement in this debacle has been shameful IMO; let’s not compound that error.
Pulling out of the Iran agreement was an intentional choice to bring about a predictable outcome. This is one of the desired (by the so-called administration) outcomes. And now it’s even better- we can pretend like we’re not directly engaging Iran in a war, but merely defending Saudi Arabia.
The thing is, IMO we won’t look like noble, compassionate do-gooders because Saudi Arabia isn’t in any way either poor or defenseless. What we’re going to look like, on the world stage, are pathetic mercenary lackeys doing the dirty work for our wealthy foreign tyrant overlords.
That is NOT the America that I want to be a part of.