The VA Lt. Gov Justin Fairfax Allegations

Politics & Elections
81

I missed the edit window, but even looking at Fairfax’s statement today he indicates that he shared the allegation with “a number of leaders in Richmond” when the allegation first surfaced prior to the inauguration. Assuming that’s true, it’s highly likely that Northam knew about the allegation before his own scandal broke.

What do you mean? I’ve read her statement. If your point is that we shouldn’t talk about who fed her social media post (and any corroborating details) to the conservative website and should, instead, take in her story about the underlying events, that’s fine (and certainly more important).

But the “shenanigans” that I think are being alleged is not that Northam or Stoney fabricated the story, but that they played a role in circulating the allegation to the press and getting it published. (By circulating the social media post in which she laments Fairfax’s anticipated promotion and encouraging them to link that to him).

I don’t feel “picked on”, I just don’t know what you’re objecting to my doing.

82

Yeah, that sounds credible. I suspect this will result in more women coming forward. Luckily, she’s accusing a Democrat, so evil right-wingers won’t destroy her life the way they did for Dr. Ford.

83

It seems incredibly unlikely that a post like hers, in a context like this past weekend, wouldn’t come to the attention of the media and the political world at large. Shenanigans unnecessary.

84

Offtopic, but factual falsehoods always bear correction.

Untrue. Ford first made the claims in 2012, which is when Kavanaugh was first being discussed as likely SCOTUS nominee in the event of a Romney win. IOW, exactly as soon as his politics became relevant.

https://www.cnn.com/2012/09/30/politics/court-romney-list/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-campaign-court-romney/analysis-a-romney-pick-for-top-u-s-court-frontrunners-emerge-idUSBRE83I18U20120419

The process by which 65 women that knew him rushed to Kavanaugh’s defense was widely reported at the time: friend-of-a-freind via phone, email, and facebook.

https://www.weeklystandard.com/virginia-hume/about-that-letter-from-women-in-support-of-brett-kavanaugh
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/65-women-kavanaugh-defense
If you were unaware of these well-reported facts, you may wish to consider broadening your news sources

85

You mean “exactly as soon as his name began showing up in national news articles.”

If someone tried to rape me and then 30 years later his name started showing up in national news articles I would probably want to talk about it.

86

And if I was making the affirmative claim that Ford’s motives were political, that would be a meaningful point. Instead, I was merely pointing out the inaccuracy of BigT’s claim that such motives were impossible.

87

Fair point, I withdraw!

88

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that a thorough investigation should happen before any decisions are made about possible resignations.

89

Well I wouldn’t have bet he’d have offered up his own dirt!

But owning up to it on his own with a clear acknowledgement of having been ignorant that early in life, not realizing that dressing as a favorite band would offend others because he had, up to then been a product of a still functionally segregated community and unknowing, and have learned much since … that more than survivable, it can be used as an object lesson for why that functional segregation, which still exists today in much of our country, is a problem that results in racist behaviors by those who do not even know that what they are doing is as hurtful and harmful as it is.

Not sure if Northam could have made that same sale (and too late now). Herring was 19 at the time. Northam was 26. We excuse more ignorance and stupid mistakes at 19 than at 26.

90

I know that we have done this before, but what about the story makes it “credible”? The fact that it is possible?

I’ve said this before, I know, but you seem to suggest that if an accuser’s story does not violate some law of physics, then it is credible. What in your mind would be a detail in that narration that would make her story incredible?

I’m sure that any poster in this thread could write a piece of fiction that would be just as credible and possibly more horrifying than that story. It doesn’t make it true.

Further, I’m not suggesting that her story is false. I’m just saying (again) that there is no way of knowing if that is true or if Fairfax’s denial is true.

91

Quick question: Did Herring come out with this “disclosure” on his own out of a sense of honesty or was it ready to be revealed by someone?

92

There is no reporting that it was about to be revealed by someone so to our knowledge on his own. Now “out of a sense of honestly” or out of good sense that a picture of that is if not probable at least possible so likely would come out *at some point *and better to rip the scab off now? I’d guess the latter but I’m a cynic. Not that cynicism isn’t usually justified though.

93

According to this AP piece: “The attorney general issued the statement after rumors of a blackface photo of Herring had circulated at the Capitol for a day or more.”

94

Ms. Tyson informed Rep. Bobby Scott of her allegations over a year ago.

95

Things that make the story credible:

  1. Specific details are more credible than vague references.
  2. The fact that the encounter was not denied.
  3. The fact that the encounter was shared with another party well before it was known to the general public.
  4. It does not appear that Tyson has a habit of making allegations.
  5. It does not appear that Tyson will benefit from the sharing of the story.
  6. The potential fallout that Tyson could suffer if it can be proved that the story is false.

None of these items make the story true but they do make it more credible.

96

In addition to those i would add (I acknowledge that the 2nd and 3rd these are somewhat troubling in terms of what they say about legitimate accusations from more marginal victims, but I’ll list them anyway) :
[ul]
[li]Same political party as the accused (making it less likely to be a political hit job)[/li][li]Education level and stable employment level of accuser (less likely to be crazy)[/li][li]Income level of accuser (less likely to be money grab)[/li][/ul]

97

My complete and total WAG based upon nothing but observing human behavior is that #3 follows a bell curve.

98

I’ll comment briefly on each point. Again, I have no opinion of the veracity of her accusation, but in general:

  1. I disagree. Every liar I know gives specific details. The bigger the liar, the more outlandish. Further, if she has created a false memory, these details are created along with it. I don’t see the relevance of this at all one way or the other.

  2. Not denied? He has denied it. He contends it was a consensual encounter. I’m not sure how that lends credibility to her story. Under this point, every date rape accusation would have greater credibility by default than a stranger rape accusation.

  3. I agree. Contemporaneous allegations are probative. So much so that they used to be required by law in many states. Her accusations were not contemporaneous, but I would agree that the closer made in time to the event is probative evidence. In this case, I am unaware of when she first made the allegation.

  4. Meh. The habit of making allegations would definitely be a negative for her credibility, but the lack thereof doesn’t really point me in one direction or the other. Does every woman get one freebie for imprisoning a man?

  5. Disputed. If this was 1975, I would agree. Today, she will be seen as a hero in some communities for her “courage” and “bravery” in “disclosing” her ordeal.

  6. There is no such danger. Her allegations cannot be proven false anymore than they can be proven true. Some have mentioned the possibility of a diary or a journal entry, but such a thing is an investigator’s dream. It never happens. Even if it did, that would be the first thing used for corroboration in a couple of hours. It doesn’t require a lengthy investigation.

As an aside, and I have experience in these cases, what seems to happen in a mismatch of expectations and poor communications. For example (and I’m not saying that it happened it this case), two people casually know each other. They find themselves in a situation where (almost invariably) alcohol is involved and they are in a setting where they will be undisturbed if they have sex (out of town, spouse/roommate is away, kids are a grandparents, etc).

After a few drinks kick in, they start flirting. One party has in mind that this will be a start of a beautiful relationship. The other party likes the other person well enough, but sees this as simply a one night stand.

Upon the entry of the house, apartment, or hotel room, one party is thinking that this will be a slow evening with a few drinks, soft music, and gentle love making, and tomorrow and next week they will keep seeing each other. The other party wants his dick sucked and becomes crude or begins foreplay in a manner that the other party does not desire.

At this instance, rarely does the woman say positively no and leave. She may suggest that they slow down, and the guy usually does back off, having (another) drink and listening to music. But it is obvious that he is just buying time and she sees that. But she feels somehow that she has to go through with sex.

So she does and at least to her, it was degrading. It was too rough, it was too quick, it was clear that she was just used for gratification. He rushes her out the door about 11 seconds after ejaculation. She leaves feeling horrified and very upset at the man.

After a while, she will read literature, talk to her friends and come to the conclusion that she did not want that, and that the man knew it, and through the help of these organizations, allege that it was a sexual assault when an honest assessment of the events show that it was not.

And unless we have a recording of these events, we can never find out what actually happened.

99

Do you honestly believe that such a scenario is common? Or likely? Because it looks like utter twaddle.

100

You know, I actually was willing to give the Fairfax side more benefit of the doubt.

Then I read this.

Now, I’m convinced he needs to go.