Will Kavanaugh be affirmed - yes or no?

Just asking for your opinion whether Kavanaugh will or will not be a Supreme.

If you wish, feel free to explain why you feel that way, or if any specific factor contributed to your decision.

Finally, feel free to estimate when he will either be affirmed or his nomination will be withdrawn.

If things happen to make you change your mind, please feel free to do so.

Me, the day after the Ford/Kav hearings, and after the Committee voted “yes”, I say yes, and before next week is over. Basically, I think the goals (seating THIS guy and maintaining party loyalty/dominance) far outweigh all other considerations.

I thought about posting a poll in IMHO, but thought most of the most interested folk were here, and wasn’t sure how to phrase the various responses. If I can, I’ll try to keep a running total of responses.

Of course he will.

Unless the FBI uncovers/discovers something sweet, yes.


I’ve believed from the start that it would be best for Senate Republicans to take a deep breath, ask the FBI to investigate Dr. Ford’s allegation, and not proceed with anything until the FBI got done. That would bring closure for those willing to look at the issue rationally and cut off criticism from the Dems that the whole thing was being rushed.

So now we’ll have an investigation. Maybe. If Jeff Flake gets what he wants. If it happens, good.

But what is the FBI supposed to uncover? They have already done the usual background check on Kavanaugh. They’ve already looked at Dr. Ford’s allegation and declined to investigate. What’s supposed to go differently if Congress asks the FBI to do so again?

They can’t investigate the scene of the crime, since Dr. Ford doesn’t know where it is. The witnesses that she named have all unanimously said that they don’t remember any such party occurring, and since she won’t give the date of the party either there’s no way to find other witnesses. She’s offered no verifiable evidence that could be investigated further. What is the FBI supposed to do? Pick random people who knew Kavanaugh at the time and say, “Hey, tell us what happened on an unspecified date in an unspecified place?”

Given that this has totally ruled all news media for the past two weeks, it’s reasonable to say that if anyone had useful information, pro- or anti-Kavanaugh, they would have come forward by now.

So the FBI will either decline to investigate, or investigate quickly and report that they found no evidence implicating Kavanaugh, and then the Senate will vote to confirm him.

Not being either a Democrat or a Republican I’m free from the obligation to post Facebook memes declaring that I’m totally certain the assault did or did not occur, and can instead acknowledge that I’m not utterly certain. But the evidence leans heavily towards did not occur, and I expect the results from the FBI will agree with that.

I lean towards no. I don’t think any D’s will go for him. I think both Murkowski and Collins will vote no and at least one other Republican will be a nay too.

So then, you think Dr Ford came forward and lied because . . .?

Sadly, it certainly looks like he will be. I HOPE that he’s not, but if I had to bet one way or the other I’d say, yes, he will be confirmed.


10 Does Kavanaugh have 51 votes?
20 If YES: go to VOTE
30 If NO: go to FBI

40 McConnell press conference: “Look ladies, we really do care!”
50 What’s the integrity level of the FBI these days?
60 God only knows

100 Conduct thorough and unbiased investigation
110 Flip coin
120 IF HEADS: go to VOTE

140 Congratulations, Justice Kavanaugh
150 Puke
160 Go to End

170 Trump withdraws nomination
180 Trump nominates Hope Hicks


If I KNEW all the Ds were voting no, I’d say “no”. But there are ten Red State Ds up for election this year. I’m betting at least a couple of them will be voting with the Rs.

So I say Yes!

If the nomination is pulled, no. If the nomination proceeds, yes. MAGA!

Yes, he’ll be confirmed, and yes, it’ll be a travesty.

Two questions:

  1. Can the FBI complete a bona fide investigation in a week? Or is this just window dressing?

  2. Under what authority does Congress order the FBI to investigate a crime that wasn’t federal and didn’t cross state lines?

It’s not a criminal investigation, it’s a background check.

I’m now leaning toward Trump withdrawing the nomination. My guess is after the crap he posted yesterday, the sight of a man representing him sniffling and weeping for 3 straight hours, is burning in his place where a soul should be. A couple more days and he will want to more and more to disassociate , and there is certainly something to be found by the FBI that will give excuse.

Exactly. This hasn’t been a trial, it’s been a job interview. And the FBI does background checks like this all the time, including reopening background checks, when there are additional questions.

Of course he will. Look at the math. Who on the Republican side will flip? Bueller…Bueller. Not a ONE. Plus who knows which spineless, window licking simpleton “Red State Democrat” will think it shows BI-PARTISANSHIP and CENTRISM to vote yes. Quite frankly the Dems don’t have the spine to go down to the gutter and knife fight Republicans on anything. The Democratic Party is the modern Nero. They they fiddle while Rome burns (I know said aphorism probably isn’t true but it’s apt).

Of course he will. Jeff Flake has to know that once the nomination goes forward, his objection can be passed over without a mention. The Reps have made several promises to other congresspersons and then ignored them. Also they will say that the FBI is tainted and cannot be trusted. A real investigation would take us past the election and it would be terrible to leave the court short-handed after all. Even a month’s delay is far too long.

All this.

A week? Phullllleeeesse. With two more accusations from two other women and perhaps a hundred people to talk to? I hope they already know a lot.

in regards to #2. It isn’t their jurisdiction. So um WTF? Is there something I/we don’t understand about what the FBI can investigate? Can they be instructed to investigate this?

Each day that passes decreases the chance it will happen. They don’t have the votes now. If they did, Mitch would have continued the metaphor by forcing this on us. A week of FBI and press investigations, plus any tantrums “Bart” throws aren’t going to help his case. This investigation might not hurt him further, but it’s not going to help.

If this week goes the way I expect, with more accusations, more evidence, more witnesses, more withdrawals of support, it makes it harder for the moderate Rs and red state Ds to vote yes. They think they can vote for him with a clear conscience pretense for their voters if an investigation is done, that they can say “Look, we had hearings and the FBI found no proof. Advise and consent.” But the I don’t think they’re reading the room right. Maybe none of the undecided votes are up for re-election in a few weeks, but they will be soon. And unlike Trump, they don’t want to destroy their legacy. So again, if this week churns up more drama and more scandal, I don’t know if they can do it.

What I was thinking, that since there are now statements under oath before a senate Committee, it seems that the door to a case for Lying to Congress should be open, which makes it an investigation of a possible Federal crime in that arena.

Of course I am not a qualified federal-law-talkin-guy,so I may be completely wrong.

I’m not in the “of course he will” camp, but I’m thinking “yes”, probably better than 80% odds. I sure as hell would love to see him thrown out on his ass, because I’ve never seen anyone more unfit to be on the Supreme Court than this crackpot, but the odds don’t look good.

Flake is voting to confirm unless the FBI turns up something incriminating, which in the one-week timeframe is virtually impossible. Or unless there is a really strong groundswell of public opposition to Kavanaugh that develops over the next few days, which is possible but unlikely. So they only need one of either Murkowski or Collins among the questionable Rs. And there are at least three Ds who might flip to the dark side.