I’ve believed from the start that it would be best for Senate Republicans to take a deep breath, ask the FBI to investigate Dr. Ford’s allegation, and not proceed with anything until the FBI got done. That would bring closure for those willing to look at the issue rationally and cut off criticism from the Dems that the whole thing was being rushed.
So now we’ll have an investigation. Maybe. If Jeff Flake gets what he wants. If it happens, good.
But what is the FBI supposed to uncover? They have already done the usual background check on Kavanaugh. They’ve already looked at Dr. Ford’s allegation and declined to investigate. What’s supposed to go differently if Congress asks the FBI to do so again?
They can’t investigate the scene of the crime, since Dr. Ford doesn’t know where it is. The witnesses that she named have all unanimously said that they don’t remember any such party occurring, and since she won’t give the date of the party either there’s no way to find other witnesses. She’s offered no verifiable evidence that could be investigated further. What is the FBI supposed to do? Pick random people who knew Kavanaugh at the time and say, “Hey, tell us what happened on an unspecified date in an unspecified place?”
Given that this has totally ruled all news media for the past two weeks, it’s reasonable to say that if anyone had useful information, pro- or anti-Kavanaugh, they would have come forward by now.
So the FBI will either decline to investigate, or investigate quickly and report that they found no evidence implicating Kavanaugh, and then the Senate will vote to confirm him.
Not being either a Democrat or a Republican I’m free from the obligation to post Facebook memes declaring that I’m totally certain the assault did or did not occur, and can instead acknowledge that I’m not utterly certain. But the evidence leans heavily towards did not occur, and I expect the results from the FBI will agree with that.