I believe it’s likely, so put me down for “yes”
He’ll be confirmed, then the FBI will finish their investigation, and probably find dirt on him, and then the Republicans will pretend that there’s no way they could have known, but oh well, it’s too late now, and LOOK! A SQUIRREL!
I predict a multi-city pussy hat march by next Wednesday. It’s what I would do, by any means necessary.
Honestly, I think most of the holdouts would like to see poll results on the hearing before they vote. The FBI investigation should provide enough time to get some visibility there.
I think he’s done. A week in the current political climate is like a ham and two people. An eternity.
Even if the investigation only nibbles at the edges of the underlying conduct, they will learn enough to issue a useful report.
A week is plenty of time for other accusers to <cough> flesh out their claims and publicize them. Oooff, and what about the ones we may not know about yet?
More people will come out of the woodwork to speak with the FBI about his drinking habits, his party attendance, his general misogyny, his “ralphing” and “weak stomach” and “boofing” and “devil’s triangle” and all sorts.
He boxed himself in with his absolute declarations of innocence. If even one assertion is found to be untrue, then he is at risk to suffer charges of lying to Congress or lying to the FBI.
McConnell is not interested in appointing someone to SCOTUS who is forced to vacate only a year or two later due to misconduct or violating his oath of office. They must be smart enough to at least pretend impartiality during the confirmation process.
Despite all those doughty declarations from the hot seat about sticking it out to the bitter end, I expect a withdrawal from Kavanaugh himself before the end of the week. And at that, he’ll be lucky to hold onto his DC Circuit seat.
I doubt I have the expertise to accurately judge how the seating (or not) of Kavanaugh may go, but our current president lacks the requisite experience for his position, so what the hey.
I’m saying No. I’m going to assume that the FBI check, while probably not turning up incontrovertible evidence of sexual assault on one or more of Kavanaugh’s accusers, will bring to light enough questionable information, such as, perhaps, misrepresentation by him of his drinking habits, that his backers will throw in the towel and exert pressure to withdraw his nomination. It’s not as if there isn’t a laundry list of other Federalist Society-approved candidates to choose from.
It seems pretty clear that the Repubs were caught flat-footed by the compelling nature of Dr. Ford’s testimony. They really should have followed what seems to be established procedure and gone for re-opening the background check before trying to skate through a perfunctory hearing. After their performance over the past couple weeks, seems like it’s going to be exceedingly difficult to avoid the odor of whitewash, however things ultimately turn out.
First of all, I obviously never said that Dr Ford lied. I don’t know what you’re hoping to accomplish by implying that I did so.
I said the evidence leans towards the assault not occurring. Most obviously, Dr. Ford named four people who supposedly were at the party, but all four say there was no such party. Needless to say, nobody has attempt to respond to that.
You are mischaracterizing the witness statements. Why?
Everyday, literally, there’s a new bombshell. So given that the FBI has an entire week. Good lord.
Will he get nominated, yea. The FBI won’t be able to corroborate anything, but will uncover he was lying about his drinking. Will the lies matter? 51 will say No, never sexually assaulted anyone - it’s just beer, 49 will say he’s a LIAR!
I’ve been wrong about everything for about three years now. My luck has to change, right??
I say another credible allegation surfaces next week, through the media rather than the FBI investigation, and Trump pulls the nomination.
And also my lottery picks are 09 26 21 48 41.
Normally if you are going to accuse someone of mischaracterizing something, you’d be expected to give an explanation of why you are saying so.
I thought it was obvious he won’t be confirmed, especially after the FBI delay. But reading here what others say, I guess it’s not obvious.
Kavanaugh is to Trump as Amy Coney Barrett (or most any other likely replacement nominee) is to Mike Pence.
I don’t like the phrase “pick your poison,” but, well, I said it anyway.
Re the four named people who said they were not at the party.
- Kavanaugh obviously denies it.
2-4. The gist is that they don’t deny the party happened, but that they don’t recollect the party. It could have occurred, it might not have occurred - they just don’t remember one way or the other.
The FBI will probe those bland non-recollection statements further. And ask appropriate follow-up questions based on the witnesses answers. That will build out a better picture of what exactly they do or do not remember.
Too many people are conflating possible with credible. At this point it’s only possible that the event occurred. More supporting evidence will need to be uncovered to get into credible territory. Right now there’s no reason to believe one side over the other that can’t be boiled down to personal preference and bias. i.e. You WANT to believe one of them.
So, barring the FBI uncovering credible evidence against him, I think he’ll be affirmed.
Innocent until proven guilty.
But now that the accusation has been made, interested parties will keep digging even after he is sworn in. If they do find something he can be removed by impeachment giving the Republicans a lovely black eye.
I really, really hope you’re right. And your use of “a ham and two people” is spectacular. I wasn’t sure if this was an autocorrect fail, so I googled it. And danged if I don’t now have a new idiom to confuse people with.
To answer the OP: I really have no idea. But every stupid thing the GOP Senators, Judge K and Trump do from yesterday through the end of this confirmation process, my wife and I have committed to donating another $50 to female candidates and Democratic Senatorial campaigns. A Kavanaugh confirmation is $100 to the DSCC. So for the sake of our pocketbook, I hope this ends quickly with him bowing out. We’re at $150 right now.
What do you think credible means?
Predict gives a 41% chance of his nomination going down. I would put it slightly lower maybe 35% which is still a serious chance. “A week is a long time in politics” and there is a possibility the FBI could uncover something important especially with respect to Judge. However barring that, I suspect he is through. The hearing was highly effective in rallying conservatives around him and it will be difficult to pull his nomination now. It appears that Manchin and Heitkamp are in serious play which means he needs just two out of five undecided senators.
If he goes down, does he have a chance in politics? The right loved his performance on Thursday.
He does have a very lucrative career as a pundit and wriiter awaiting anyhow.
Signs point to no. This is now part of #metoo. The positive payoff from–whom?–isn’t worth the fury from pussy-hats.
And who is Brett K.'s base? The Bushes? I know Dubya’s been lobbying for his boy. Is that it? Just the particular personal interests of administration figures? Businessmen who want deregulation can more happily have another, less hated justice. Pro-lifers can surely do better than someone who protects murderers and torturers.
The GOP really need to suck it up and nominate something other than a male Roman Catholic for once. (Gorsuch goes to an Episcopal church as his wife is Church of England, but he was raised RCC.) Are there no pro-life GOP Protestant women on the federal bench, or just none credible enough to sit on the high court? Why not? What does that say about this judicial movement, if that’s even what it is?
There are “pussy-hats” who would be inclined to vote GOP if Brett K is not confirmed? :dubious:
There are probably women who will camp out in Susan Collins’s DC and home state offices. And Jeff Flake’s, since he’s now shown that he’s a nice guy who doesn’t like rape. Don’t just generalize from your own state; and it’s not just votes, but the personal experience of hearing protesters cry at one day after day.