{quick simple stupid hijack}
I’m totally ignorant to how these things work (I do remember the iconic John McCain “thumbs down” that was a made-for-TV-moment), but these Senators’ yay/nay votes in regards to Kavanaugh - they’re totally transparent, right? There’s nothing “anonymous” about it, correct? I’d hate to think that some of these “on the fence” Senators could cast an anonymous vote and not have to answer to it or defend it.
Yes, they are all public.
thank you Velocity, I appreciate you “fighting my ignorance” on that one.
No.
(1) The FBI investigation is pretty damn unlikely to come back clean. Most probably, it will give the whipped cowards on the fence enough cover for a No vote.
(2) Only a couple of Regressives, and there are enough already, need to understand that confirming him means losing the Senate as well as the House for a generation to come. The world is changing, and they’re on the wrong side.
He should have been immediately withdrawn when it came out that he was a Vince Foster-conspiracy nutter. That was immediately disqualifying.
Then, he lied right to the senators faces about the meaning of boof, devil’s triangle, FFFFourth of July, the Renate club, his own propensity to get sick from drinking and to have blackouts. Then, he lied right to their faces about what his own friends said and in what form they said it – for example, Judge never said in some sworn statement under “penalty of felony” that there was no such party. He didn’t sign anything, in fact.
So, yes, of course he’ll be confirmed. Jeff Flake will fold as usual, the two R senators who are women will say they’re satisfied when he told them Roe is settled law and that he didn’t try and rape anyone, and in he goes.
They can seat him right next to the other lying sex offender on the court.
I wouldn’t say 100% he’s definitely not going to be confirmed, but I’m leaning towards no. They don’t have the votes right now, there are enough Republicans wavering. Some of them might still be yes votes after the investigation and use the fact that there was an investigation as cover that everything is going along procedure, but it only takes two to still feel uneasy and vote no.
Also I don’t know if any new bombshells will come up, but the FBI investigators will be able to conduct questioning for more than 5 minutes at a time, unlike how the Democratic senators were allowed. And at the hearing the senators only questioned Kavanaugh and Ford, while if anyone has information they can go to an FBI field office right now to give them that info. Maybe no new bombshells will come up, but I can imagine people coming in with info that clears up some details and confirms that Judge isn’t the straight A choirboy who would drink the occasional beer that he tried to sound like in the hearing.
The FBI will question Mark Judge, who wasn’t subpoenaed for the hearing. He had submitted a letter regarding the assault, but from what I understand since it was a letter through his lawyer and signed by him, then it’s not exactly under penalty of perjury, while lying to the FBI would have more consequences, but someone correct me if I’m wrong about that.
Also, Kavanaugh definitely lied about multiple things during the hearing, including the Maryland drinking age at the time, his drinking, Renate Alumnus, Boofed, Devil’s Triangle, Ralphing, and other things. The FBI will be able to dig in more to prove that those are obvious lies, and lay out what else he was lying about. So even if there is no absolute proof that he attacked Dr. Ford, his repeated lying alone should be enough to keep him off the court. This isn’t a criminal trial where there is presumption of innocence, this is a job interview, and his lying should show that he’s unfit. I can imagine a Senator not feeling comfortable calling him a rapist for certain but comfortable pointing at his lying showing that he’s unfit to confirm.
Also a week in delaying allows more time for people to call their Senators and/or visit them. No elevator is safe from women stopping it and telling their stories. The week also allows more time for the Senators to look at the polls, and the trend for support for Kavanaugh is downward.
I agree. If there were the votes, then they would be voting to confirm on Tuesday. People are angry, women especially, and there are a lot of senators who will be getting a lot of calls in the next week. I think some will decide to vote no out of being shamed but also reading the tea leaves for re-election.
From what I understand, Mark Judge is saying it didn’t happen, but the other witnesses say they don’t remember that party, which is understandable because nothing traumatizing happened to them at that party. They didn’t see Kavanaugh pinning Ford to the bed and covering her mouth so she couldn’t scream, they saw Kavanaugh, Ford, and Judge going into another room and then coming out later, they might or might not have been even paying attention to them.
I don’t know what the FBI investigation can clear up about that specific party, but they can establish patterns of behavior, and if there were routinely parties and the drinking behavior of people at them, and how Kavanaugh and Judge behaved with girls. Maybe it won’t be enough to convict him in a court of law for the crime, but it could be enough to confirm that he shouldn’t be a Supreme Court Judge.
If you believe the assault did not occur, then Dr Ford lied if she said it did. Right? Or is there some nuance/spin you wish to apply?
One will flip because they have one spare vote.
Yes.
As far as point 2, I don’t know.
I’m assuming the democrats will win big in 2018 and 2020. but I’m also assuming the democrats will not use the census opportunity in 2020 to gerrymander, and I’m assuming the public will just vote the GOP back into power in 2022.
I am cynical and despondent about what America is capable of. What may happen is the GOP loses congress for 4 years, then gains it back in 2022. Getting that in exchange for a SCOTUS majority for 30 years may be worth it.
I’m going to bet wild and say it won’t come to a vote. The FBI will uncover more crap and more character witnesses will damn Kavanaugh and public opinion of him will continue to slide, not hugely because there are plenty of people who would vote for a rapist pig with the morals of Goebbels – just look at whatshisname! – but enough that the optics will look so bad his nom will be withdrawn. Not by him, he’s another one of those power-hungry narcissists that party breeds in their secret underground vats, but by the Powers that Read Polls.
That’s the way to bet. Even Trump has offered the thought that he’d have to withdraw if Ford’s story were true, although that was in between bouts of calling it a fake con-job etc. He does appear to be on board with the FBI providing cover to whoever thinks they need it, including himself.
No, Congress cannot order an investigation.
Yeah, I can’t see the FBI investigation as anything but cover for the eventual failure. They might not be able to conclusively prove Ford’s story, but they are going to get to interview a ton of people who will confirm Kavanaugh lied about plenty of other things.
“I do not recall” is lawyer-speak for “It never happened.” It’s what lawyers advise their clients to say in any circumstance, not just when asked about a 35-year-old sexual assault allegation.
If your former employer was accused of holding a huge cocaine orgy every Friday afternoon, and you worked right next door to him for ten years and are certain that it’s untrue, a lawyer would still advice you not to say “It didn’t happen”. They would instead instruct you to say, “In ten years of working at the _______ Company, I have no recollection of any event in which…”
But “I do not recall” is also lawyer-speak for “It totally happened, and I saw it all and remember it clearly”.
As a lawyer, I disagree. Kavanaugh said it never happened - pretty clear and direct. Maybe it’s a good idea to ask some follow-up questions to these witnesses to determine what they mean. Fair?
Aww, thanks. I always thought it described eternity to a tee and is one of my favorite metaphors. Glad you will now make use of it, too. 
I, too, really, really hope I’m right. Unfortunately, I can tend toward too much optimism based on what ought to happen in a normal circumstance… and RitterSport’s scenario is as plausible as mine, based on what we’ve observed over the past 2 years.
HOw fast can the REpublicans get an alternative candidate to vote on ahead of the mid-terms? I think that is a key factor. Someone not so conservative right, not so blatantly partisan, not so open about sitting Presidents not be indictable, but nonetheless a victory?
Methinks if a plan B candidate can be shoved thru before the mid terms then Cavanaugh is toast. His friend Mark Judge and others, under threat of lying to the FBI, just might be less equivocal or even spill the beans. Jesus, it would take uncovering one woman with credible claims of having consensual sex with Kavvy in high school to highlight his lying about being a virgin.
Finally, Kav’s performance was for Trump and the core base. As far as a job interview, he failed bigly. Christ almighty,in all my years of interviewing job candidates, I’ve never had someone go so far off the deep end. Kav had a chance to show coolness under fire, the gravitas of a supreme court justice, a diplomat forcefully making his points without resorting to deep state Clintonian conspiracies, ad nauseum. I wouldn’t be surprised if his performance violated the code of conduct at Harvard and the standards of which Harvard Lecturers/professors are required to meet. Don’t blame a witch hunt, blame your own performance. Epic fail.
After watching Kav’s performance, IMHO he is exactly the mean, nasty drunk that some of his peers accuse him of being. YMMV
Kavanaugh also said he never drank to excess and that the devils triangle is a drinking game.
Even putting the sexual assault allegations aside, Kavanaugh is very willing to commit perjury, and is a very partisan person. He shouldn’t be a judge for those reasons alone. Add in the sexual assault allegations and he shouldn’t even be a lawyer, let alone a judge.