With Neil Gorsuch was confirmed to the Supreme Court today via a 55-45 vote. Conservatives now enough a 5-4 majority on most issues.
But what happens next?
Here are the three most likely judges to exit, hopefully for them via retirement.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg. 84. She was named by Bill Clinton.
Anthony Kennedy. 80. Appointed by Reagan.
Stephen Breyer. 78. Appointed by Bill Clinton.
The odds are at least one of these judges will pass, or retire, perhaps two by 2020. Ginsburg is the oldest and has had major illness issues. The best guess is she is replaced next. Kennedy has the luxury of retiring if he wants to. Breyer if he wants to help the liberal cause does not. In the 2018 election, more Democrats have to defend their seats than Republican in the Senate, which is who confirms the supreme court picks.
Clarence Thomas is 68, likely to stay on for a while longer.
The following justices are least likely to be replaced due to their age:
The life expectancy for Ginsburg is, it would seem, 5.57 more years.
The odds are in her favor for making it to the next presidency though, of course, medical history, average age of relatives at death, etc. could widely impact that metric. Certainly, it’s closer to 50/50 than most on this site would prefer.
None of my business, but in Britain judges have to retire at 70 to ensure the pristine sparkle of their keen incisive minds are not tarnished.
Before such compulsory putting out to pasture for the golden years, some of the old guys made strange decisions.
Assuming Trump stays in office, she only has to last another 3 years. Presidents can no longer appoint Supreme Court justices in the last 12 months in office.
But in High Court of Australia justices also retire at 70, which allows nice touches like when Justice Kenneth Hayne retired in 2015, he was replaced by his wife Justice Michelle Gordon.
All appointments by the executive without the attendant angst and aggravation seen with a SCOTUS nominee.
Modern medicine being the wonderful thing it is for those who will undoubtedly get the best care possible, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that all three could see 2020 come and go, and still be on the Court. Especially since at least two of them, and possibly all three, from the rumors I hear, want to outlast Trump/Pence. If that happened, it would be one hell of an election issue next time.
However, I’m more interested in the immediate winds of change. Sure, as one vote on the Supreme Court, Gorsuch replacing Scalia is even-Steven. But I don’t think that means the Court is quite back where it was 16 months ago: the absence of Scalia’s personality seems to have changed the dynamic of the Court well beyond the mere absence of his vote. Should be interesting to see how things go from here.
I can’t imagine the principled stand the Republicians took last year has anything to do with politics. I’m sure they’ll feel the same way about a Trump or Pence nomination.
Given that Thomas never really seemed mentally sharp from the beginning (has asked something like one question in nearly thirty years), “still” might not be exactly the right word.
Not so, it all depends who has the majority in the senate. And the 2018 senate races favor the Republicans to pick up seats, simply because many more Democrats are defending their seats, and some of them are in red states.
Trump is he’s re-elected will appoint at least 2 justices, with a chance for four.
