This person had not travelled to China or, to his knowledge, come in contact anyone who had. So apparently there was Community spread in France as early as December.
Yeah, we are beginning to see in many places that this was starting to spread at low intensity well before publicity arose. This propagation has a very long left-hand tail to the curve before the exponential climb kicks in visibly.
Which is something that worries me about how people are reacting in some communities that have not yet seen high incidence, as if they think that if it’s not gotten so bad there by now, it’s not going to; or that it will burn itself out in the big cities before it makes it to them.
If that’s the case we’re missing the upward slope starting in December. It seems you have this late 2019 case and then it took a one month break before the next covid-19 case. Note the evidence suggests that this is community spread so he isn’t the first.
I posted in another thread about a situation that took place in November. Reasonably healthy man, not too old, gets sick with respiratory problems, doctors puzzled, it gets worse, he dies. Nobody was thinking coronavirus and maybe it was…maybe it wasn’t.
Here’s an interesting thought: the man chose to become an organ donor. IIRC they took kidneys etc. Clearly the doctors knew he’d been sick but never knew what had made him sick and killed him. Anybody know what protocol they follow for organ donors under such circumstances? If someone with COVID19 dies today—and they already stipulated they want to be organ donors—do doctors harvest from them?
Since this was before Dr. Li’s warning and before anyone in China realized they were dealing with a weird type of pneumonia, it seems that we were fucked regardless of what the CCP did.
Considering that this flu season was a bad one, a thought I have seen expressed elsewhere is that…maybe this is the feared second wave and the “bad flu” season was the first wave. And maybe several countries missed that first wave and this is their first wave…this would explain why the effects seem so varied, with countries who should have had bad outbreaks being relatively unscathed.
I know of several pretty bad bugs that swept our offices at the back end of last year that bore striking resemblance to the C19 symptoms. Of course, lots of bugs have a variety of similar symptoms but this one was remarkable by the length and violence of the coughing fits.
Who knows? now that we know it was out and about in December at least I suspect various path labs will be returning to lots of previous cases to see if it tracks back even further.
It seems more likely that virus spread slowly in the early or mid January period (when a lot of people spend time at home anyways) until the first cases were detected later in the month.
It is also possible (but probably unlikely0 that this outbreak died out in France and the late January cases were from a separate introduction.
Is this finding going to hold up to scrutiny? Needs a lot of corroboration, doesn’t it?
If you’re asking about the positive test for covid-19 I believe the sample was tested three or four separate times all coming back positive.
The article mentions that the man had contact with his child who had had an ILI illness preceding. I would think that the very next thing to do would be to test that individual for antibodies with a good quality test and if positive do the same with their close contacts to the best as is possible at this late date.
Maybe that is being saved for a next publication!
For those wondering, like me, Influenza Like Illness (ILI)
(My bad. Sorry.)
Are scientists still sure it passed from animals to human in the 3rd week of November or could it have jumped to humans earlier?
I’m skeptical of these reports because they are being misused by COVID deniers to claim that herd immunity has spread through the population already, which is doubtful considering the recent deaths.
There was no C19 test in November, but there was a flu test. People who had bad respiratory disease in November where tested for flu, so the flu numbers reflect the number of people who actually had the flu.
C19 was first identified in Wuhan as a respiratory disease that was “not flu”, because they had a big bump in “not flu” respiratory disease. We didn’t see that big “not flu” respiratory disease bump in France or in the USA until later.
A mutation of the CoVid virus makes it more contagious and seems to have originated in Europe.
Same.
That seems a very strange view to take.
The truth of the reports is completely independent of the way in which they are being used.
There is no reason to doubt the report of December infections from France, you can consider that good evidence and at the same time be critical of how the deniers (whatever they are) choose to interpret it.
We have retroactive isolated diagnoses of HIV from the 1950s, but it didn’t spread until many years later.
I read somewhere that the first case for HIV goes as far back as 1920s. I am too lazy to find where I read it but if you are interested, maybe you can google it.