Well, I’m popping back in. Yes, the PAD says it will end it’s airport occupations at 10am today (Wednesday), which is less than 90 minutes from now. I’m sure they’ll do it, as I’ve heard the leaders were starting to look for a face-saving way of exiting, and the court verdict is it.
But anyone who thinks the PAD had anything to do with bringing about that verdict is sadly mistaken. As Ale pointed out, like with Samak’s verdict before, this one was a foregone conclusion. Yes, the rulling PPP expected the verdict to such an extent that they’d already renamed their now-banned party, and the new logo was even being put in place in many offices before the verdict. The Constitution Court (as it insists on being called in English, not Constitutional Court), is actually pretty much graft-free, so the PPP and the other coalition parties dissolved knew their number was up.
Ideally, the Democrat Party, the only true good guys in Thai politics despite many of the lower-level minions being personally as corrupt as the people in President Grant’s administration, should lead a new coalition party. But I doubt it will happen. Last night, they were discussing in all seriousness making Chalerm Yubamrung prime minister. I cannot think of a worse person besides Thaksin to be prime minister. Even Thaksin himself would be preferable. Chalerm is the brutish oaf with the three brat sons who go around beating up and shooting anyone who so much as steps on their feet, and that is not the slightest exaggeration. One of them shot and killed an undercover police officer in a nightclub in cold blood seven years ago and finally got off scot-free.
No matter how bad governments have been in the past, not one has damaged the local economy to the extent the PAD has these past few months. Tourism will be shattered; they’re already talking about a million lay-offs in the short term in the tourism industry alone. Investors have already started fleeing to friendlier investment climates like Vietnam, which is really starting to open up. The economy was already on the rocks, but now… Thailand is going to be paying a very high price for the PAD’s action all throughout 2009 and maybe longer.
And the protests could start up again at any time, especially if the new prime minister is not to the PAD’s liking. Plus now the red shirts – the pro-government supporters – are threatening to start similar actions if the new PM is not to their liking. I have to say this may not be a good time to plan that Thai vacation. Best wait awhile and see what’s going to develop.
BTW: There have been persistent rumors since the weekend that Thaksin is in Cambodia, in Koh Kong, just across the border on the coast. I know he’s got some sort of property development there.
Will drop off again for a couple of days.