Unfortunately, despite outward appearances, Thailand has never been a true democracy. Ever since the absolute monarchy was overthrown in 1932, the military has been in power. Not a day has gone by these past 76 years that they have not really controlled the country. They will permit just enough democracy to appease the rest of the world, but if that democratic veneer is not going the way they think it should, they will step in and take over. They try not to do it too much, because appearances are everything in Thailand, but no one doubts who wields the real power. Thaksin’s biggest mistake was having the hubris to think he could rule over the military.
I remember an incident a decade or so ago that’s a bit telling. The prime minister at the time announced certain land on our Eastern Seaboard would be taken from the military for other government use. The head of the army immediately came out and said in public: “Oh no it won’t.” The prime minister about wet his pants backtracking on his statement, saying no sir, of course we’re not taking any land away, there’s been some misunderstanding. If a truly democratic government says it need to use some military land, then the military just has to bite the bullet.
Make no mistake, the Thai military always is in control of the country.
Whether its tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, today’s news gave the interesting little tidbit that the PAD mob is generating 4-5 tons of rubbish a day. And the city street cleaners have been instructed not to get into any fights with PAD members. Any street cleaners fighting with PAD members will be moved elsewhere. If it were a street sweeper, I’d take a swing at one or two members just to get away from there!
Still a standoff. I wonder how much shit they’re going to find smeared all over the walls of Government House once it finally is returned. Also, the BBC keeps referring to the PAD as “the Pad,” using the English word “pad.” That’s nonsense! No one here says “Pad.” They are “the P-A-D.”
Update: The police appear to have mounted some sort of small operation this morning (Friday morning). They seem to have tried to clear out some of the protesters on the fringe of the mob. But the Government House compound is a huge place, and they clearly did not mount a major push to retake it; sounds more like a harassing operation. The protesters claim the police used tear gas; the police deny it.
I think the PAD are astonished they’re still there. It’s like they had counted on making Prime Minister Samak blow his stack and do something stupid like he always does under pressure. They weren’t counting on him showing restraint. Restraint is NOT in his nature. Someone is holding him back (and no, I certainly do NOT believe it’s anyone royal, for reasons I dare not go into).
Interesting, too, because word is the PAD is being backed by elements of the military, while the government is being backed by other elements of the military. This is a little proxy war between the factions. Business as usual in Thailand.
And now train service is down in much of Thailand. Story here. In sympathy with the PAD.
In fact, the secretary-general of the State Railway of Thailand’s labor union, Sawit Kaewwan, is now one of the PAD’s three new core leaders, and he’s saying his railway union will consult with the electricity and water labor unions to disrupt services to government offices. I’d heard before that water and electricity might be cut off to the government.
An update following the Lost Weekend: The weekend was somewhat chaotic. In the South, Phuket, Krabi and Hat Yai airports were shut down by protesters, creating some real hardship for tourists. Reportedly, in Phuket alone, 15,000 Brits were stranded, causing them to miss connecting flights and thousands of little Britters to miss the start of the new school year. All airports had reopened by Sunday, but I was hearing that Hat Yai Airport was closed again last night (Tuesday night). Reports seemed unsure, but Thai Airways did announce a halt to its Hat Yai route. Most train lines remain down in the kingdom. The protesters are also threatening to shut several more airports in the South in the near future. (The South is a Democrat Party stronghold, always has been, and they’ve been opposed to Thaksin and now Samak from day one, way back in 2001.)
Worse, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, pro-government supporters rallying in a large field called Sanam Luang finally got liquored up enough to march the three miles or so to Government House and attack the PAD. Running street battles ensued, leaving one dead and dozens injured. A state of emergency was decreed for Bangkok, which is still in effect. Gatherings of five or more people are prohibited, and there are media restrictions on reporting. I believe the pro-government crowd has been removed to just outside Bangkok in Samut Prakan province, where the state of emergency is not in effect. The PAD still hold Government House, though, for eight days now.
The situation seems somewhat more stable this morning (Wednesday morning). All sorts of strikes were threatened by government workers – transport, utilities, even some state-owned banks – designed to bring Bangkok to a halt. But it’s going on noon now, the strikes don’t seem to have materialized. They had said they would cut off power and water to all governemnt buildings AND the private residences of the prime minister and all of his cabinet members until the government resigned; I’d sort of like to see that one implemented, hehehe.
I cannot seem to make the “insert link” function work properly, but a good background overview of this crisis can be found here:
Also, I’m happy to report the troubles are not affecting the bars, especially not the live lesbian sex shows, as I was able to ascertain late last night. (Well, SOMEONE has to check these things out.)
Really, most parts of Bangkok and Thailand are unaffected. The troubles are contained to a very small area of Bangkok. As long as transport workers and such don’t actually go out on strike, you’re average person would never know anything unusual was going on. It was like this with the September 19, 2006, military coup, also. The country outside of Bangkok remained completely untouched.
EDIT: Oh, I just found these photos of the clashes early Tuesday morning:
Thailand is a little like ancient Rome in its later years, isn’t it? The military hold the ultimate control, the top of the political hierarchy is wracked by strife and frequent coups, and the rest of the country keeps chugging away in its corrupt but consistent manner, basically unperturbed.
Well, stay safe and if that means hunkering down at the live lesbian sex show, then so be it. Thanks for all the updates, Thailand felt like home to me when I visited and I try to stay informed with the political goings-on there. Such really friendly and beautiful people (not meant to be ironic).
My favorite Bangkok street sign said something like “Although snake bites are rare in city limits, if bitten please proceed to the snake bite emporium”.
Rumors have been running rampant that Prime Minister Samak was going to resign today (Thursday). He even scheduled a special address for 7:30 this morning, and everyone was sure this was it. But no. He used the address to repeat he would never resign or dissole Parliemant.
But Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag did resign last night after less than two months in the post. That’s a serious blow to the administration. The Bunnag family has been big in Thailand for a long time. They’ve intermarried with the royal family all the way back to the days of King Chulalongkorn (the little boy in The King and I) and always traditionally held positions of great power. To have someone of his caliber resign has got to hurt. He seemed to be hinting last week he might go, saying in an interview that if he was ever asked to do something that went against his conscious, he would have to resign.
Otherwise, the situation is pretty much a standoff right now.
Not a chance. The Bunnags generally hold themselves to be too good for elected politics. They’re already much more powerful than any mere politician could ever hope to be; it just would not be worth the trouble. Behind the scenes, their power and influence are mighty. (The Bunnags are as powerful as the military, and again, it was hillbilly Thaksin’s hubris at thinking he could wield control over such people that led to his downfall. Prime ministers are expected to do as the real powers that be tell them.) Tej reportedly only agreed to take up the foreign-minister post a couple of months ago as a favor to the king, who reportedly asked him on Samak’s behalf, because our border dispute with Cambodia was turning sticky and required someone with exceptional foreign-policy skills, which Tej has. But he just could not stomach what’s going on now.
It’s being widely reported that Samak has now proposed a referendum to sort things out, one question on the ballot being should Samak resign. I notice the foreign media is touting this as a very hopeful sign, but the local press is doubtful. First, the government cannot hold any type of referendum until the Referendum Act is passed, and it’s having its first reading in the Senate today (Friday). That means it will be at least a month before the bill can even be passed. At least, maybe longer. The situation cannot be allowed to drag on that long. It needs to be resolved now, not weeks from now.
Second, the constitution specifically forbids questions about individuals or groups. The ballot can ask whether such and such type of person can be allowed to hold the premiership, but it cannot ask whether such-and-such should resign. Another question proposed was should Thailand adopt the “new politics,” whatever that is, of the PAD. Again, this is about a specific group and not allowed under the constitution. Samak probably does not understand the constitution, this version of which was brought in under the military government after the 1996 coup. Most politicians have never understood any version and so have always proposed or ordered things that are always having to be reversed because it’s unconstitutional. Normal for Thailand. Or, as most people think, he could just be stalling to buy time.
Third, the PAD certainly think he’s just stalling and have already said screw any referendum, they’re not leaving until the government resigns.
Oh, and Hat Yai Airport WAS shut down again, but it reopened yesterday, and Thai Airways has restarted that route. A couple of other airlines serve it too anyway.
I’m going to take the unusul step of cautioning against travel to Thailand in the near future. There are really no safety worries as far as I’m concerned, but there’s simply no guarantee now that you can actually travel out of Bangkok. Many train lines remain down, airports are opening and closing sporadically, highways are being threatened with blockades and bus workers may go out on strile at any time. What will ultimately happen is completely up in the air, and people coming here may find themselves stranded or unable to get to their final destination upcountry. It’s crazy right now.
As much as I dislike the present government, I absolutely despise the protesters, and so I applaud the cruel move the prime minister made on Thursday moring. The news media have been running photos of tearful protesters. A few posts above I mentioned that rumors of the PM’s resignation were running rampant. Everyone was convinced he was going to resign during his special radio announcement Thursday morning at 7:30. Expectations ran high indeed. Well, he didn’t just say he was not resigning. He went on the air and said in Thai: “I guess you’ve all heard the rumors by now that I’m going to resign. Well, I’m not! Haha! Not now, never will. You’re stuck with me. Even my wife wants me to quit, it’s so much trouble, but no, I won’t! Not ever! Nyah, nyah, nyah!”
Well, okay, he didn’t say “Nyah, nyah, nyah,” but it was definitey implied. The protesters at Government House were beside themselves in grief and rage. Tears streaming down everyone’s face. Well played, Mr. Prime Minister, well played (for a thug). It would not surprise me if he started the rumors himself just so he could do that.
Here is an excellent article in The Economist pointing out why the PAD winning would be worse than a military coup.
And here we see the ever-vigilant Burmese government is making sure that country’s media are silent on our current troubles. (The Irrawaddy now requires registration, but it’s free and quick.)
Sam, I’ve read about how the PAD wants to have appointed representatives, 30% (or was it 70!?), do you know who would be doing the appointin’ if that came to be?
Now, of course my first thought would be, “why, the PAD of course” but that seems so blatantly over the top antidemocratic (even by PAD standards) that I find it hard to wrap my mind around the idea that they could actually speak of that out loud…
They want only 30% of MPs elected, with 70% appointed by “professional groups,” whatever that means. I’m sure the PAD would insist on having a say, or else it’ll take over something or other again.
But the proposal is a non-starter. The PAD leaders are a dim-witted lot. Chamlong Srimuang was Bangkok governor back in the 1980s and then played a prominent role in the protests of Black May 1992. He’s also a professional martyr and shit-stirrer. I know an American reporter who followed him around for a day, and he told me the guy is a true little martinet. And he belongs to this extremely austere Buddhist sect that requires chastity even among married couples. Chamlong’s always pointing out in interviews how pure he and his wife are because they haven’t had sex literally in decades. He’s always trying to promote himself as this sort of living saint on earth, and the problem is that a lot of the rustics are willing to buy into it. I personally have no doubt his religious austerity is nthing more than an old-style medicine-show sham.
Then there’s Sondhi Limthongkul, the arch-enemy of Thaksin Shinawatra. He’s the head of the Manager publishing group. I had some sympathy for him early on, long before the army ousted Thaksin, but it soon became obvious he was just another Thaksin wannabe. Buddha help the country if he’s ever in control. He’s one of the screechier ones you see up on that stage of theirs, kind of pudgy with little glasses. And here’s a little bit of gossip for you: Someone who is in a position to know once told me, way back before Thaksin was ousted, that Sondhi and Thaksin at one point shared the same mistress and were jealous rivals for her affections. This was not some bimbo, but rather a lady in an executive position in a media company who is reportedly now married to someone else. But one theory runs that their animosity dates back to those days. I don’t know if I necessarily believe all of that, but it’s kind of odd to think that all of this fuss, including the 2006 coup, could just be some weird Helen of Troy melodrama.
The standoff at government House continues. Tomorrow (Tuesday) will make two weeks that the protesters have been occupying Government House, and I her it’s getting pretty rank indeed on the premises. The prime minister is reportedly about to lift the state of emergency for Bangkok, which only makes sense, considering it’s had absolutely no impact on life in the city. The only ones it was really directed at were the protesters, and they’re still there.
The tourism industry is taking a bad hit and will continue to do so for some time. Here you can see that Jetstar’s rescue of its stranded passengers cost the airling upward of half a million Australian dollars. CNN discusses the impact the protests may have on the industry here. And here we see foreign arrivals are already down 30% in Bangkok. Bad news for the kingdom.
The situation took a turn for the surreal today, even for Thailand. The Constitution Court has been deciding whether Prime Minister Samak violated the Constitution by appearing on a cooking show. They finally ruled he had and revoked his prime ministership effective immeditaly. That’s right. A cooking show.
Samak fancies himself quite a cook and hosted a TV cooking show for eight years. Its name translates to something like Cooking and Grumbling. Well, he continued with the show for a short time after he became prime minister some months ago. The Constitution forbids a sitting prime minister from accepting paid employment in any enterprise. He tried to say he was not an employee, but rather a freelancer, and that anyway he was basically only reimbursed for the cost of the ingredients used on the show. The court didn’t buy any of it and kicked him out of office this afternoon.
So everyone’s happy, right? Welllllll … not quite. There’s no law preventing him from returning to office after 30 days. And his People Power Party, the main party in the coalition, has promised to vote him as prime minister again at the end of the 30-day period. The coalition partners have agreed to do the same. See here.
Meanwhile, his cabinet will remain in a caretaker capacity, and as first deputy prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is up to be caretaker prime minister for the 30 days. He just happens to be the brother-in-law of Thaksin Shinawatra, who was overthrown in the 2006 military coup and is at the root of all current political problems. They thought Samak was a puppet; well, here comes a REAL Thaksin puppet. They’ll be glad to have Samak back, which he will be in 30 days. This is madness even for Thailand.
But who knows what the PAD will think of all of this. They won’t know whether to stop occupying Government House or not!
This is embarrassing as hell. Never mind that this man in all likelihood had a hand in ordering the massacre of students at Thammasat University 32 years ago. Never mind all manner of corrupt practices he’s been accused of over the years. What knocked him out was appearing on a cooking show! And even then, he’ll be back in a month.
(Well, SOMEONE has to check these things out.)
