Much has been made in the past of the WW II era Japanese high command’s apparent frailty in their planning being that they bet heavily on the opponent (us, the Allies) reacting as expected, and were caught with their pants down when we, for instance, didn’t take the draw in the Aleutians and came out to meet 'em in force at Midway.
So how much of that is operating now? Did Osama and the Taliban expect just a few cruise missiles to bust some camel butt in return, and then they’d be able to renew their own campaign? Do you think they’re at all surprised at the world turning against them?
And it’s not just us heathens - their main compadres have said, “Goodbye Taliban!” in the last couple of days. Do you think they’re awestruck, or was this all part of the big plan to begin with?
Not to bust yer bubble, but the most widely-discussed explanation for why the attacks occured in the first place is that OBL & friends want to provoke a massive war of the West against Islam. So they consider the West uniting against them as good news. The fact that Saudi Arabia et al have also joined in is also no big surprise–in their eyes, those Arab governments are corrupt and evil. They probably are a bit shocked about Pakistan, though.
What they expect to happen next is:
The West to begin an all-out war against a Muslim country, probably Afghanistan.
All right-thinking Muslims across the world to join with OBL, and unite to fight against the Western devils (and their corrupt Muslim allies) and push them out of Muslims lands forever.
I think things are going according to their plan so far. I doubt, however, that we’ll do OBL the favor of launching a conventional war on Afghanistan, given what happened to the Soviets. I also doubt that the average Muslim is really willing to lay his life on the line for OBL’s crackpot theories. Let’s hope I’m right.
Actually the Japanese had a fairly good plan at the outset of WWII; it only had one major flaw. Their plan was to launch a surprise attack against the United States to maximize the tactical advantage (this worked), then seize as much territory in the Pacific as possible and assume a defensive stance (this also worked). At this point they expected the United States would realize it would take years of fighting to overcome the inital Japanese advantages and would negotiate rather than fight a prolonged war (two out of three).
In contrast, American military planners didn’t really have any ideas what they were going to do in case of war. But the United States had the advantages of geography and economics that allowed it to create a war winning military force during the war itself. In addition, the allies had the incomparable advantage of having broken the Axis codes. It’s nearly impossible to conduct a successful ruse like the Aleutian threat when the enemy is reading your own plans.
As for bin Laden, my guess is his plan was to go into hding while the bombs were falling and then come out again when it quieted down to recruit new followers from those who fought in the war he provoked and then abandoned. He probably figured it worked for Saddam Hussein.