Gary Johnson is a likely outlet for those of us who can’t vote for Trump.
While agreeing that it won’t happen, if it did I don’t think it hurts either one very much. What Trump says or does is entirely irrelevant to his level of support among Republicans. And there are some voters who just want a populist outsider. Trump-SAnders would improve Trump’s poll numbers quite a bit I suspect.
Of course, it won’t happen because Sanders would never agree to it.
I don’t know if this tells us much at this stage, but a Suffolk University poll is out, and according to PoliticsUSA (I’m not familiar with them):
I don’t put much stock in those kinds of surveys at this point. Emotions are running high, and there are six long months before the decision actually needs to be put in force for a cooling effect to happen. A substantial chunk of those people will eventually decide to go party line when confronted by the voting booth, even if their candidate is Damien, because Hillary.
I expect the final percentage of anti-Trump Republican votes to be more along the lines of 10-15%.
Independents are the largest group of voters by far at about 43% and most people do not vote strictly along party lines even if they are party affiliated. It is true that most people lean one way or another and party loyalists tend to be consistent in their Presidential votes but that actually makes the effect much larger if even some loyalists cross over out of principle.
It is one thing for them to simply abstain from voting at all but the effect is twice as large it as it appears at first glance if they do cross over because it subtracts a potential vote from one side and adds it to the other doubling the effect. Even 10 - 15% of Republican crossover votes are huge in Presidential elections which tend to be somewhat close. It could be much worse if Independents switch over in equal or larger numbers.
I can promise you this effect is real because I am one that falls under this umbrella as are most of the people I am close to and people are very serious about it. We may just have to Photoshop a new logo on Hillary and go with her because she is the best moderate Republican still in the hunt.
I definitely agree that we shouldn’t be counting on those numbers. I do wonder if there are any numbers from previous elections to look to for comparison.
I’d offer a guess here that the cross over vote is voting against a candidate, not for one.
That said, I’ll bet they return to their normal voting habits when politics returns to normal.
Why?
Check your state laws first. There may be a requirement that you vote according to the gender on your birth certificate.
When I was a kid, there was this idea of the same old South. But I admit it’s changed. Back then, while they cared about who went into what bathroom at least as much as today, the bathroom segregation focus was a little different.
Because if you don’t support Trump, why would you support Alan Grayson? He’s the liberal version of Trump. There will be a lot of votes for Clinton and the GOP Senate nominee.
Yeah, I voted for Ed Clark once. I don’t really remember what point I was trying to make.
No, he isn’t. Libertarianism will never be more than a fringe element of the Republican Party and the Libertarian Party will only get votes from those who would otherwise vote Republican but for whatever reason don’t want to bear personal responsibility for casting a vote for someone who might win. No LP candidate will ever win any significant office during our lifetimes or in the next 500 years.
Trump is going to cause a lot of Republicans to either stay home, waste their vote on a worthless third party candidate, or even vote for Hillary. This is going to kill the downballot Republicans and cause them to lose both chambers of Congress and many statehouses as well.
Dang I hate articles written as badly as that.
How does this work out?
10% of male Republicans and 9% of female Republicans and 18% of both put together? Unfortunately searching for the actual poll results gives only pdfs that have no useful crosstabs. All GOP is that much different than the "very likely " voter group?
You want to get worried then attach lots of meaning to the current Rasmussen poll. Trump and Clinton tied. 10% of Republicans would vote for Clinton and 11% of Democrats would vote for Trump.
Yeah it’s Rasmussen. C rated by 538 and with a significant GOP house lean. And attaching meaning to these polls at this point is foolish in any case. Still, I am not willing to be overconfident quite yet.
Well, the upside to a Trump nomination is that the Republican Party will go all-in to protect their Senate majority rather than wasting money and effort promoting Trump. Those GOP votes for Clinton don’t translate into votes for Senate or House Democrats. Potecting the Senate is probably a little easier with Trump as the nominee than Cruz, especially since Trump is going to bring out a lot of new Republican voters. Not enough to overcome the revulsion against him, but possibly enough to save some GOP Senate seats that are endangered.
Trump is likely going to bring out a lot of new Republican voters - true. And likely keep other ones home, and get some other ones voting for the other side. As you note the ying yang of new in vs revulsion out.
So details matter. Mostly these new Republican voters will be in districts that are safely and for now fairly irretrievably GOP. For a GOP candidate he does relatively well the more rural White a district is and relatively less well in the suburban districts. Guess where the endangered seats mostly are?
It is possible that he will win a few rural White districts by bigger margins than Romney or McCain did and that those running with him will also have bigger margins.
Do GOP Senate (and House too) contenders run away from Trump enough to get enough split tickets to pull it off? And lose some of those new voters in the process. Or do they embrace him? A conundrum it is.
I predict the number of Republicans who stay home will vastly outnumber the ones who vote for Hillary.