Say Clinton and Trump are nominated for their respective parties. This does not appear to be a huge assumption at this point. And say the #NeverTrump people are serious about never voting for Trump. This is a much bigger assumption at this point.
Which party benefits if #NeverTrump Republicans came out and vote for Clinton? How about if they stay home?
If they come out and vote for Clinton, they might/probably would also vote for down-ballot Republicans.
But if they vote for Clinton, Clinton is more likely to win.
Is there any evidence that voting in a certain way impacts our future voting habits? Does crossing over lead to staying over and pulling the other lever ever? Never? (Sorry, got a little carried away there.)
Could Clinton getting more Republicans out to vote for her actually be worse for the Democrats than getting fewer?
I’m just speculating, but: surely a #NeverTrump Republican who feels so strongly impelled to vote that he or she would vote for Clinton, would be coming out to vote anyway–meaning no net change in the number of votes for down-ticket Republicans. Someone that motivated to vote would have come out to vote in the state and local races in any case, no matter who the GOP candidate might have been.
Hmm. So you don’t think there is a significant number who would think “If I voted, I would vote for Clinton + down-ballot Republicans, but I might not vote at all”?
You may be completely right. I really don’t know how all of this works.
I doubt it will be a significant number but it might be a little larger cross-over than usual with some people (such as the Koch brothers) stating that Clinton would be better than Trump. So you might see some actual people thinking “Trump would be so terrible, I need to vote Clinton” rather than just your usual primary election threats born of petulance.
As Sherrerd says though, I’d think anyone committed enough to voting to vote Clinton & down-ballot Republicans would have been voting no matter what. So, while Clinton gets a little bump, it doesn’t actually “hurt” down-ballot Democrats. Those Republican senator/congressman votes were already baked in.
I’m sure there is a small number of anti-Trump people who would vote for Clinton, but I’m guessing those people are already somewhat moderate anyway if they would consider voting for her despite her so often being portrayed as a she-devil by Republicans. Some Republicans just won’t get motivated to go out and vote at all if the choice is between Trump and Clinton. Voting has been lower for a lot of the Republican primaries compared to the Democratic primaries, and that’s not a perfect measure of how the general will be, but I think it indicates the lack of enthusiasm a lot of Republican voters have for the potential candidates. Voting is a hassle, and people are more motivated to get out and vote when they are enthusiastic about their candidate.
But a lot #NeverTrump voters will slowly change their minds, and say that while Trump is terrible that Clinton will be much worse. Especially when Trump doesn’t have to focus on Cruz (and Kasich) anymore and just goes after Clinton exclusively. Trump is a joke, but Clinton has been regarded as one of the worst people ever by a lot of Republicans, I think a significant number of Republicans will be brought around and vote for Trump as the lesser of two evils.
I think downvote races will be hurt for the Republicans because of anti-Trump voters, but I don’t know by how much, or if it’s enough to affect the outcomes of those races.
I think there will be a massive drop in voter participation by Republicans. I’m now predicting the Democrats will take the presidency and both the Senate and the House.
I consider every race individually. I may very well vote for Clinton, but a Republican for Senate. But Patrick Murphy, the likely Democrat, is an excellent candidate, so I might vote Democrat there too. If Alan Grayson is the nominee though, there will be a lot of ticket splitting in Florida. In 2004 I voted for Mel Martinez for Senate and John Kerry for President.
Which, if you ask me, may have been the entire purpose of the Trump campaign in the first place. I’ve never had the feeling that he *really *wants to be president.
As far as crossover voting, I’m a Republican, and would have a very hard time pushing the button for Trump (we have buttons, not levers in my town). But that wouldn’t for a minute translate into a vote for Hillary. I’d probably pick a third party candidate who looked good, and still vote GOP for Congress and any other local candidates.
I honestly think that Hillary is mostly an old-school moderate Republican at heart despite some of the rhetoric she is using at this stage of the game. She was even officially one while in college (at a very liberal school) and I seriously doubt her core beliefs have changed that much since then. She only changed her affiliation because of Bill and he is hardly a flaming liberal either.
I live in Massachusetts so it won’t matter who I fight for because the person on the Democratic ticket (most likely her) is going to win the state easily but I may vote her if I vote at all.
I am a Republican leaning Independent or at least I was until the Republican party actively destroyed itself at the national level. I agree with the Koch Brothers. Hillary is the best Republican candidate in the race even if she changed her jersey. Donald Trump repulses me at a deep level so he will never get any of my support. I believe that there are lots of other people like me who are very serious about that and are willing to block him even if they don’t think Hillary is all that great herself.
Trying to suss out who the real Hillary Clinton is is difficult. I do think that her hawkishness is real. She’s just got too good a rapport with the military for it to be anything but genuine. She also has a long history of being a social liberal for the most part. Never too far out in front of public opinion, of course, but always solidly on the left side of the mainstream. It’s on economic issues where there’s a lot of mystery.
I said she is similar to an ‘old-school Republican’ which I believe she is and that is a good thing to me at least. She isn’t like the new crop of Republicans like Ted Cruz and certainly not Donald Trump. Those team jerseys do not mean much ideologically because anyone can change them at any time for any reason. I don’t think Donald Trump is a real Republican either. That just happened to be the easiest slot that he could grab this cycle.
My point was that I don’t think she is very liberal and she certainly isn’t a real leftist. She tries to pretend to be more liberal than she really is because it gets votes but that is what she does consistently for everything. She and Bill are in a business partnership to gain and hold onto power using whatever works.
I explained to my daughters that she doesn’t represent women in general; she is a Hillary and there is only one of those in the world. I say the same thing about Donald Trump. He doesn’t represent men or anyone but himself. Between the two of them, I happen to agree with her more but that is damning with faint praise.
I don’t think the “Never Trump” bunch will vote for Hillary, and they’ll still vote for down ticket Republicans, leaving the presidential vote blank, but what they won’t do is put signs on their lawns and bumper stickers on their cars, man the phone banks and drive people to the polls, or donate to the cause. Every committed voter is more than just a single vote, it’s a representative out there working for the campaign.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes…
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… mass hysteria!
Anyway, put me as a +1 for Shagnasty’s position on this. When I say never Trump, I mean it. In fact, I’ll vote for Clinton over Cruz as well.
(And this is not an idle threat. I kind of liked Mitt Romney, but I disliked the rest of the party baggage and the Ryan tax plan in particular. Obama got my vote last time around.)