I wonder what people here think of the consequences for the Peace Process in the Middle East.
I have yet to formulate my own take on this (plus I’m at work and can’t take too much time to post right now). I’ll join the fray later, when I get home…
BBC says French hospital denies Israeli TV report.
If it’s true, does anyone remember ephraim? We could email him an invitation to contribute here.
As for the peace process, I’m not sure his successor will have any more sway on those actually committing atrocities than he did. Unless Palestinians are given either the vote or a viable state of their own (which the illegal settlements preclude), what will have changed?
Sadly, I don’t think it will accomplish much in the end.
I’ll clarify that a bit. I agree entirely that Arafat is a large impediment to the peace process. However, I think most reasonable people agree that for peace to move forward, the Palestinians need someone who fulfills two conditions.
Must be able to tell Hamas to stop and they will, in fact, stop, at least for a bit.
Must be somewhat moderate and willing to compromise on some issues that are less important than an independent Palestinian state.
Must not be percieved as a puppet controlled by Israel.
If there is someone with these qualities, I’ve missed him and would appreciate being enlightened. Otherwise, I can’t see an end to violence until someone with these qualities steps forward and assumes leadership.
From discussions I’ve heard on the radio, it’s expected that henceforth the head of the Palestinian Authority and the head of the PLO will no longer be the same person. Will that cause the PLO to diminish in relative importance, or not?
Short-term effect - more attacks on Israel as the terrorists jockey for position.
Medium-term effect - this may help the peace process, as a more trust-worthy person moves into position to moderate the Palestinians.
Long-term effect - who the hell am I kidding? There is no one who can moderate the Palestinians. More terrorist attacks on Israel, and the whole region goes on killing each other for the next fifteen hundred years.
Still, he’s in a coma apparently. I think we can assume that he’s not likely to be an active participant in politics anymore regardless of whether he dies or just camps out on deaths door for a while. And my impression was that his power amonst the palistinians has been on the wane for a few years now.
So the question is whether the Palestinians will be able to unite behind a new leader who can negotiate with Israel or if Palestine will desend into fractitious infighting as Israel withdraws, walls them off (possibly taking a chunk of the west back with them), and they’re left with a small, impoverished, chaotic psuedo-state that gets leveled by the Israeli’s bulldozers every few years.
Sadly I think the latter possibility is by far the most likely.
Who could realistically tell Hamas/Islamic Jihad/Al Asqa Martyrs to ceasefire?
This to me seems a Catch 22. If they are ‘trustworthy’, these groups will not listen. If they have strong enough links that their word is sufficiently powerful, will they not be blown up by an Israeli rocket for being a terrorist?
As the peace process in Northern Ireland found, surely one must eventually negotiate with the terrorists themselves?
The guy ain’t dead literally, but is it safe to assume he is for all practical political purposes? Will his annointing a successor be necessary for that individual to have legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinians?