Thread on viability of Electric Cars

In My Humble Opinion
81

And, of course, an E-350 Centurion costs less than $20,000, the first item on the guy’s must-have list.

82

May be a dumb question, but what about the supply of copper for all of the motor windings and heavy-duty wiring that will go into these EV vehicles? I realize that generators and starter motors will no longer be necessary - does that make the conversion a wash?

Should I be investing in copper futures?

83

My Ford 2019 C-Max has heated seats and steering wheel, and really, if your back is warm, the rest is much less important. I thought a heated steering wheel was a luxury until I had to drive in a temperature of minus 20C some years ago (it has not been quite that cold ever since).

84

Maybe if they heat with electricity. With natural gas you’d have to live in a warehouse.

85

I don’t know how true it is but I read a story where a gunner in an exposed position on the Murmansk run during WWII had an electric back heater. SOP was to check that the fuse had not blown every half hour.

86

& potentially expensive, too if you’re in a ‘spring break’ city. $300-$500/DAY for rental cars. Yes, it’s Covid-related because of how many cars they sold off in the past year & the shortage of getting replacement fleets so it won’t last forever, but if you need a rental car in the wrong place at the wrong time you’re SoL.

87

EVs definitely require more copper, though if copper gets too expensive, aluminum can be substituted for much of it. Teslas already use aluminum for the main charging cables, and there’s probably more in there that can switch as well. The motor windings still need copper since conductivity per unit volume matters there for efficiency. Note that this is a totally different situation from the use of aluminum in house wiring; there’s nothing inherently unsafe about its use in a car (or in a house for that matter, but it’s easier to use it safely in a constrained environment like a car).

I don’t think there’s any evidence that there’s going to be some great shortage, but it’s pretty likely that the price will go up (which will mean more mines opening or reopening, etc.). So, it might be worth investing in. Nickel is likely to be scarcer, but then copper and nickel are often mined together, so the supply is somewhat tied.

88

I’m hanging onto my big jar of pre-1996 pennies…

89

I called Elon. He says he’s willing to trade you a Model Y, straight up for your jar.

90

Well, it is a pretty BIG jar…

91

[pedant]1982[/p]

92

Pssst. Canadian pennies. 98% copper up until 1996.

93

Here is a breakdown of many of the anti-EV arguments:

  1. Present old information about EV’s and pretend they have not and will not improve. They cost $70,000 plus Their range is only 100 miles. They are just like golf carts.

  2. Present some edge cases and pretend they are the norm; Have to drive 800km every weekend and there are no chargers en route, and no hope of ever getting them. No access to electricity, ever. Need to haul chickens, hay and a horse trailer to work every day.

  3. Present absolute wrong information gleaned from the internet. EV’s will burst into flames at the drop of a hat. They strip mine all the metals using child labour in concentration camps.

  4. Point out flaws in EV’s and pretend they don’t also apply to gas cars. They use metals and resources to build. The energy they use must come from somewhere.

  5. Build a nice straw man; EV’s will not solve the climate change crisis all by themselves. so why bother.

  6. People won’t change. Everyone is like me, and will not change their buying patterns whatsoever. Nobody has ever embraced new and better technology in the history of the planet.

94
  1. The electrical grid is a static thing; It has never been improved, and cannot be improved, so EV’s are impractical. Any change in this area is impossible.
    (Goes along with) A change to EV’s instantaneously by every single driver would cause chaos. So a slow transition to EV’s over the course of 20 years is also impossible.
95

Another one:

  1. Since some of the power on the grid comes from fossil fuels, EVs do nothing towards fighting climate change. They’re just as bad as ICEVs.
96

Good one.

Of course the underlying assumption is:

“Power to our electrical grid is all derived from burning fossil fuels, in the most inefficient ways, and this will never change. There can be no new sources of electrical power that are not derived from fossil fuels.”

97

Here are some real EV issues, from an EV driver:

  1. New EVs are expensive compared to the cheapest cars available. (Though they are priced comparably to similarly equipped and appointed ICE cars.)
  2. Right now, EVs are not available in every form factor of car, truck, etc. (This will change.)
  3. High speed charging is not available everywhere, but it is available in most places that most people go, and you have a Tesla. This is changing.
  4. Battery degradation is a real phenomenon. You need to accept that a car with range X will have range (X-0.85X) after some time. This hurts, but is the state of the technology today.
  5. EVs do not have the energy capacity for long distance towing. A utility trailer around town? No problem. A camper on a cross country trip? That’s going to be painful.
  6. The technology in EVs is changing at a rate closer to phones than cars. Whatever EV you buy today will be outdated in just a few years.
  7. Today, no manufacturer currently selling EVs has the technology level of Tesla. Tesla has reliability and quality issues. (I very much hope both of these things will improve.)
  8. If home charging is impossible, then owning an EV becomes a more difficult prospect.
  9. Many of the systemic problems with cars in general, still apply to EVs. For example, personally owned cars, EV or ICE, are always going to contribute to congestion.

This is not intended to diminish the many, many advantages of EVs over ICE. It is mostly meant to poke at the EV detractors who pick arguments off @Euphonious_Polemic’s list, when there are legitimate things they could bring up. My favorite not-argument “I need to drive 100-200 miles every day.” Then an EV would be fantastic for you, think of the money and CO2 you’ll save!

98

Oops, what I meant was, 0.85X or (X-0.15X) to represent a 15% loss in range. I mushed those together in my typing and got an 85% range loss. That only happened to the first generation Leaf, when the batteries overheated and cooked to death.

99

Yes, I was going to point out that the problem of rapid battery degradation was a real one, but mainly confined to early battery chemistry in air-cooled batteries in hot climates. Early model LEAF’s were dying pretty quickly in 100+ degree Arizona heat. That being said, any battery will experience loss over time. That’s just the way it is.

The new Nissan Ariya with 300 mile (480 km) range is going to be liquid cooled. Nissan learned it’s lesson. If I have one of these, and experience a 15% loss in range over 5 years, bringing me down to around 400km, I"m going to be OK with that.

Many of the issue you mentioned are certainly true… and as you have pointed out, the issues have been noted, and things are changing. That’s probably the main theme of folks who find fault with EV’s consistently have - things will be exactly the same as they are now (few public chargers, expensive EV’s, grid infrastructure), and there will be no change possible, even over a 20 year time frame.

Often this theme of “things will never change” is not explicitly stated, but if you look at their arguments, there it is.

100

And it’s not like this is unique to batteries. Pretty much everything degrades as they are used. ICE cars get fewer miles per gallon as they age, for example. No one complains about that. At any rate, battery degradation can be minimized by avoiding fast charging as much as possible.