[n.b. Before I say anything, I’d like to state for the record that I know dang well that this is a game of pure luck and the sole reason for that “A GAME OF SKILL” discliamer is to get around gambling laws. I’m also vehemently opposed to the nanny state and believe that government has no business coddling and shielding adults who are perfectly capable of making their own decisions. And frankly, I’m rather disgusted that this is even an issue. If you wish to argue me on this, feel free to take it to Great Debates; I won’t get into it here.]
So a few months ago, this redemption game called Tic Tac Fruit shows up in an arcade over here. A couple of other places get it soon afterward. It’s an electronic redemption game, similar to a number of such games to show up in recent years. But there’s an important difference…players don’t compete for tickets that can be exchanged for prizes, but cold, hard cash. That’s right, legalized, completely above-the-board, no BS gambling has arrived in Hawaii.
The concept is simple. Upon placing one of four wagers (25c 50c 75c $1 is the most common; I’ve also seen 50c 75c $1 $2 and 50c $1 $2 $4), nine symbols fill a 3x3 board. The possible symbols, from least to most valuable, are cherry, lemon, orange, plum, bell, Flip, Spinner, and Titanium. The player must then select a square to turn “Wild”. If two of the same symbol are in the same line as the Wild, the machine makes the appropriate payout. If the square the player picks does not result in the highest possible payout, the difference between what the player got and the best possible choice is added to the “Perfect Play” award, which is granted after 15 consecutive correct choices (which is really no big deal, as I’ve seen some players go through literally hundreds of boards at a stretch). One some boards, more than one square may be correct.
Cherry, lemon, and orange lines pay 4, 8, and 16 cents on the dollar, respectively (meaning that the player loses 96, 92, and 84 cents on the dollar, since no amount of the wager is ever returned). Plum pays double the wager, which works out to even odds, and bell pays five times the wager, effectively a 4-1 payout. Flip brings up a “bank vault” screen full of random amounts, and payouts vary widely (I’ve seen upwards of 25-1 and less than 7-1). Spinner brings up a wheel full of numbers, from 5 to 10, with a ball spinning rapidly around it; the player stops it on on a number, which is then multiplied with the (usually hidden) “Spinner Total” to reach the payout. With good timing, Spinner payouts can be huge; 52-1 in one instance. Titanium pays the current jackpot, which increases with each play.
The low fruits show up all the time, as you might expect, plums are uncommon but not rare, bells only show up occasionally, Flips are rare and almost always take a long time to show up, and the Spinner is an extremely rare luxury (so rare, in fact, that the attract screen has a demo of it just so you know what to expect if you do get it). I’ve NEVER witnessed anyone hit the jackpot. Note that the maximum amount of possible payouts is four (center square, vertical, horizontal, and both diagonals), and even if they’re all oranges the player still loses 36 cents on the dollar, so the player must get a plum or better to come out ahead.
My question for anyone who’s seen one of these machines (the preceding was just for the benefit of those who didn’t) is how, exactly, payouts are calculated. Obviously, like all gambling machines, it’s set to operate at an overall loss. But how is this done, weighted average of a number of past plays (so the machine ramps up the payments a bit after a long dry spell and vice versa), raw probability (so it is possible to nail five bells in a row, just don’t bet the mortgage payment on it), or something more complicated? MOST players got a fairly consistent spread of the good payouts (some days the machines were a little more generous than others), but I personally witnessed at least one instance where a player put in a huge amount of money…we’re talking triple figures, now, and yes, that’s far more than I ever expected anyone to plunk in a redemption game in a single day…and had an amazing string of good luck, good enough to…well, last a long longer than usual before getting busted. So generosity is met in kind. But only temporarily, mind you, and these players invariably hit massive dry spells that negate their initial boons.
My hypothesis is that the machine is initially set to collect a certain amount of cents on the dollar, based on a set number of previous plays, with a fixed amount of leeway permitted. For example, if it’s set to collect 20 cents per play, the average can be, for example, -5 cents to 45 cents. If the machine is too generous and starts giving out more than 5 cents a play on average, then’s the time to serve up the low-hanging fruit cocktail. If it gets a bit too greedy and the average rises to above 45 cents, it’s time to give the player a break with a Flip, or a Spinner if it’s been long enough. It’s possible, again, that inserting sufficient cash will bring this down, but I also think that playing for a long time without cashing out or inserting more money will increase the collection. I’ve witnessed this a couple times, and it makes sense, because the machine operator doesn’t want to spend too much time cleaning out one player.
So, anything to these ideas? (Mods, feel free to move this; I know this isn’t your usual mundane mindless topic.) And while I’m here, does anyone know the actual oddes for a Titanium? It must be astronomical, even though the machine can earn it back in two days.
