Actually the path is already laid out (if my opinion is worth anything). The next console generation will be a more obvious split between the different makers (Sony, Nintendo and MS).
Microsoft:
Many of you might have missed it, but Microsoft established their intent a couple years ago upon release of their Media Center (on PC) and the Xbox 360. MS’s pursuit is not to manufacture a gaming console per se, they are aiming for the entire entertainment network via the most common appliance in every american (wold wide) platform on the planet = your TV.
The Media Center already interacts via WLAN with your xbox 360 so you can (on your TV): view pictures from your PC, videos from you PC, listen to music from your PC, you can use messenger on your Xbox, now you can download movies direct, buy games online, watch TV shows (purchased), etc. The way they see it, you will most likely have a PC or Laptop (all connected to your home network via WLAN), a TV and internet access already in your home. All they want to do is tie it all together with a box that does it all. Of course that includes gaming. Both “hard core” and the casual gamer. But that will be but a slice of the package.
The game play will continue (on future xbox’s) quite like it is now, except they will be more flexible with game titles to accomodate for more casual play (probably downloaded) and greater flexibility for different types of controllers (depending on the games that are created). But they will leave that part up to the game manufacturers.
Nintendo:
These guys will be at the opposite side of the spectrum. They dont want to run your house, they just want to play games. They rule with the DS (over the PSP) and the Wii cripples PS and Xbox in sales. They have a working formula which has worked fine for years. Make cheap consoles with fun games that any age group can find appealing. More of an arcade frame of mind.
Sony:
These guys are toast. The reason is, they want to try and catch up to what MS has done (and can’t because of poor timing and no idea how to make good software), and they can’t match the appeal of Nintendo for just straightforward gaming anymore. They are in limbo (and currently with the most expensive console who’s only appeal to consumers is the blue-ray player which will be obsolete in a couple of years anyhow).
So the next gen of MS will be a even more integrated media entertainment center, and the next for Nintendo will be another great box of fun games and innovative titles. Sony’s next will be a note to the judge filing for chapter 11.
So says I