Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalitions are common at a local level and indeed are rather more so than Labour-Liberal Democrat ones. This page gives a useful summary of who controls which of the local authorities.
The real point however is that a third party in a FPTP system cannot afford to rule out the possibility of a coalition with both the major parties. Otherwise they’ll just get screwed by the party that they are prepared to serve with. Having no other options is the worst possible negotiating position. Which is precisely why some of the smarter Lib Dems have been trying to reposition themselves along more free-market lines. Not that the ‘Orange Book’ Lib Dems made much headway in the recent leadership election, but then one could hardly argue that that election was about policy at all. Campbell’s subsequent decision to abandon their policy of higher taxes can be seen in the same light. It turns out that they’re nowhere near as inflexible as you seem to think.
It is also worth remembering that if there is a hung Parliament, the Tories might actually prefer to remain the Opposition. The trap for the Liberal Democrats is that a coalition with Labour might be seen as them ‘propping up’ a Government that had already been rejected by the voters. Worse, if that Government already has a reputation for in-fighting, the strains of a coalition are only likely to reinforce that, with that reputation then spreading to the Liberal Democrats as well. This is why the impression given by the Liberal Democrats that electoral reform will be the indispensible condition for their support in a coalition might not be so smart after all. That may yet prove to be the perfect issue over which a tactically-astute Tory leader will manoeuvre the Lib Dems into the arms of a doomed Lib-Lab coalition. There would then be the added bonus for the Tories that the resulting attempt to introduce PR could be dismissed by them as a shabby attempt by Labour - and their new Lib Dem friends - to cling on to power.
Why “doomed”? It might not work very well, might not appear good to the voters, but it’s not “doomed” unless they’re ready to vote for an alternative – and I can’t see them going Tory.
Elections have to be called within five years of the last general election. There is some rule which I forget exactly that allows time between the calling of the election and the holding of the election. The last election was May 2005 and so the next election must be before some time in the summer of 2010. Most ‘full parliaments’ (those not caused by the loss of a vote of confidence or by an early rush to the polls last about four years.
Recent elections:
1964 small Labour majority- too small top last a parliament
1965 good Labour majority
1970 Tory win
1974 Tory’s asked ‘Who runs the Country’ after strikes- got the wrong answer! Labour elected with a plurality
1979 Margaret Thatcher Elected
1983Tory
1987 Tory
1992 Tory surprisingly- smallish majority
1997 Tony Blair Landslide
2001 Tony Blair Landslide
2005 Tony Blair majority
Two out of the three five year parliaments resulted in change of government; the third was widely expected to. The common wisdom is that you only go for the fifth year if you are hoping for a miracle.
And in addition next years there are elections for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly in both of which Labour currently governs (with LibDem support in Scotland and tacit agreement in Wales). Labour is likely to face a bloody nose in each of these contests whether Blair goes or not and the received opinion is that the effect will be greater if Blair stays. Additionally there are English local elections due next year with similar results expected.
There were two elections in 1974 - one in February which resulted in a minority Labour government, and another in October since Labour wanted a proper majority (they got a small majority and managed to hang on for the full five years).
Labour isn’t going to lose in Scotland or Wales. They’ll probably get fewer votes than previously but they will still get the majority. The beneficiaries will be the Scottish / Welsh Nationalists and the Lib-dems, but they won’t get enough votes to make a difference.
The Tories are dead in Scotland and Wales. They will do well in the English local elections, but not well enough to worry the Government.
Tried to post this yesterday but the boards seemed to be down:
The Scottish Parliament is elected by an additional member system that results in approximate proportionality.
Currently the percentage of votes for various parties allow a Labour/LibDem coalition.
The SNP (Scottish National Party) is likely to be the largest party after the elections and will attempt to govern alone or make an alliance with another party.
The Welsh Assembly also has PR with Labour currently governing alone with not a full majority. They are likely to have far fewer seats after the next election and will need to enter a coalition with one of the other parties- probably the LibDems as used to be the case.
I can’t find equivalent figures for Wales, but Labour are hanging on to power by their fingertips in Wales whilst their popularity is well down in Wales since 2003. They will certainly be in coalition again from May next year.
The average UK subject does support things that the average US citizen would think of as somewhat socialist, NHS, much larger national and local government, large safety net for unemployed/poor etc.