Heh Heh Heh. We’re only 30km into the current Stage and ummm… you’re kinda off the mark I’m afraid.
The only way for this stage to get more surprising is for Cavendish to sneak a victory!
Or then again, maybe not. I was debating with myself as to whether I would go to bed or stay up and watch. Then AC lit things up on the first climb, then Cuddles gets dropped and I decide it’s all too sad to watch, and then Evans starts to claw the chase back and now they are all together on the Alpe.
So I’m staying up!
Cuddles has to drop AS. If he sits there waiting on AS, who looks pretty blown to me, AC will get a few minutes on him. He has to go!
Looks like my analysis in Post 127 was essentially correct. Now we’ll have to see whether the Schlecks can withstand Evans’s superior time trialing.
Andy Schleck’s time trials have been a lot better lately, but it’s possible he’s blown himself: he looked pretty wrecked today.
Yep, I agree. Andy looked really wrecked after he crossed the line.
The one thing that’s REALLY gonna play into Evans’ favour tomorrow is that Andy got sucked into an 80km break the day after he chose to go into his epic 60km breakaway the day before. I am absolutely sure that wasn’t his plan, and it definitely would have been the last thing he wanted to do. And then, on top of that, when Evans hit him on the first part of d’Huez he was just hanging on for a while and Evans realised Andy was on the ropes. At that point Evans just sat on his whell and made him grovel all the way up the climb, knowing full well that Contador could possibly ride into a threatening position unless Andy did the work.
On top of that, at long last the Schleck one-two was non existent. Indeed, today was the first time all Tour that Evans was finally in the box seat, thanks in no small part to Contador playing the role of wildcard joker.
But anything can go wrong in an ITT. A crash, a mechanical, flat tyres, just having a bad day. Based on how well Evans closed the gap in the final 2km on Galibier, I’d say he’s the strongest GC protagonist remaining.
Tonight is definitely a night for rest, not going to a nightclub and gettin’ on it.
Does anyone with a knowledge of gambling have any idea what the odds are for this tour now being a closer finish than the 8 seconds Lemond beat Fignon by?
Looks like the Gruppetto missed the cut off again - by about 30 seconds. Assuming Rojas was up the road again, Cavendish might have lost Green, which means, you’d assume, that HTC will be looking to control the stage in Paris, as he might well need to win it to be sure of the jersey.
ETA: just getting reports that Rojas was in the bus - so Cavendish should keep a 15 point advantage on the final stage.
No, but this site has Cadel as a massive favourite.
In a two horse race $1.66 to $2.66 is close to a sure thing.
…which does not gel with my estimation at all. I would expect Andy to lose about 30" to Cadel in the ITT.
Can anyone explain those odds? Is it just Australian gamblers outweighing Luxembourgers, or has Andy been terrible in ITTs of late?
Andy Schleck’s recent ITT’s have been pretty good. He lost only 31 seconds to Contador in the last ITT at the Tour last year. Cadel’s ITT that year was horrible, losing over 5 minutes to Contador, but he was suffering from a fractured elbow. In general, Evans is definitely a better time trialist. But how much better?
The real question is whether Schleck blew all he had in the past two days, and will have something left for tomorrow or not. Of course the same concern applies to Evans. Contador will be have to be happy to get into the top 5; he should pass Voeckler but probably not Cunego or the Schlecks and Evans.
My guess is that Andy Schleck will lose less then 57 seconds to Evans and will thereby keep the maillot jaune. Evans will be second, Fränk Schleck third. I would not however guarantee that outcome: Evans might just pull this off. It’ll be exciting to see.
I agree. The commentators were talking about it as if Evans has it in the bag but I’m stuffed if I know why. You have to look back a good few years to find a TdF ITT result where Cuddles took more than a minute off AS. I suppose Evans has looked in better form this year while AS has looked about the same. An Evans victory seems possible but I wouldn’t put it any higher than that.
Andy Schleck’s lead is going to make it a tight race race tomorrow; very tight. I still think he’ll make it.
However, I would not be surprised if it came to be a narrower victory than LeMond’s Tour victory in 1989 (8 seconds.)
It’s the most exciting final ITT in the Tour since then, for sure!
On the last mountain stage of the race, the very last time he could leave the Tour this year with even a scintilla of honor and respectability, he got dropped by…Pierre Rolland. Pierre Rolland!
I rest my case.
Of course it is.
Ummm…yeah. I never claimed anyone else was. What might really be projection is someone trying to tell me why I’m irritated. Condescending lectures are never irritating, it has to be opposing opinions. And getting chided for not discussing the topic while the post I was responding to didn’t discuss the topic, that’s not irritating either. It can only be the differing opinion. I’m really bothered that some found the Tour (before yesterday) more interesting than I did. Yeah, that’s the real thorn in my side. :rolleyes:
I know next to nothing about cycling, but I am wondering about this. Frank Schleck is probably going to finish third. Is there anything in the rules to prevent him from deliberately falling back to ride with his brother to help him win the GC?
I’m not suggesting that this is likely to happen, just curious if there is a rule prohibiting it.
Yes, there are rules against drafting in ITTs. People catch the riders in front of them all the time, and it is incumbent for the rider overtaking to pass without drafting.
My understanding is you’re not allowed to get within 10m if following directly behind, and if you do get closer than 10m (as in you’re affecting a pass) you must immediately move 3m either to the left or to the right. Which sounds almost like a lyric to “Let’s do the Time Warp Again”, but it’s true! Those are the current UCI rules, to the best of my recollection.
Down here in Australia, this particular time trial is a big deal, a REALLY BIG DEAL. This is arguably on a par with the 1983 America’s Cup win where the Americans finally lost after 132 years of continuous success. Australians have had a long love affair with road cycling going all the way back to Hubert Opperman in the 1930’s, who was the first non European to compete in the Tour de France. Then came Russell Mockridge, dual Gold Medallist at Helsinki who rode the Tour in 1957 I think and was prodigiously talented prior to be killed in training by a Melbourne bus.
Outside of Europe, a case could be made that Australia is arguably the country with the greatest love affair of bike racing. It’s a big deal that Cadel Evans is well positioned to give it a big shake.
However, in the context of who deserves the win, in my view it’s definitely Andy Schleck. He put his balls on the line with that epic ride up the Galibier, and then he got away in another break with Contador the very next day. That’s ballsy. That’s gutsy. Loads and loads of panache.
Evans, conversely, chased very well - he really sufffered during his chase, but the bottom line is that he was reacting to somebody else’s moves - he wasn’t making the moves himself.
What a great three days in the Alps. The early attacks were inspiring to watch even if they failed to stay out in front yesterday. Contador is the man, IMO. He is weakened but not giving up. What a champion! The French won a stage… on L’Alpe d’Huez. Even Levi attacked! :eek:
My only disappointment was in Thomas Voeckler. He admitted that it was a mistake to waste energy chasing the day before but he did it again yesterday. Things might have gone differently for him on the last climb yesterday if he had stayed in the pack or at least dropped back once he got dropped by Contador and Schleck. A brave brave ride but not the smartest, it seems to me.
He spent an awful long time, out on his own, didn’t he?
Imagine how you’d feel? You’re in Yellow, you’re French, you’re all alone, caught in no man’s land halfway between the leading break and the main bunch behind, trying to catch two of the world’s best climbing specialists, on the Galibier no less, and you’re a known NON CLIMBER yourself! You’d doubtless be saying to yourself “WTF am I doing here? Here, of all places? On my own?”
Given that Contador started the day in 7th, Liquigas and Lampre were always going to chase to save their 5th and 6th places on GC respectively, and indeed, when Evans went back to the main bunch after his bike change, that’s precisely who was on the front. From that point on, Evans had the wind protection of men around him, some of them his own teammates. Thomas Voeckler conversely insisted on being out on his own, very VERY exposed for the next 25km by my reckoning.
With hindsight, Andy Schleck didn’t need to chase Contador either. However, he almost certainly thought “Hell, if I did it yesterday, that means Contador can do it again today, so I better go!”
We’ll never know if Evans was having mechanical problems, or if he was cracking. He pulled hard in the final 5km on the Galibier, I’d say it was a genuine mechanical.
Don’t be too quick to dismiss Rolland as a bit player. The cycling world is aflutter today after discovering that Pierre Rolland rode Alpe-d’Huez after Turn One yesterday “a bloc” on the big ring for the rest of the climb.
To be fair to Evans, though, his “engine” is what it is. He jokes about himself as being “old diesel”. He doesn’t have the acceleration on the climbs but he’s shown a very good ability to grind his way back in the last few days. He did Galiber two minutes faster than AS on stage 18.