First say something substantive, then you can request a substantive refutation.
I don’t see any need to “substantively refute” speculation, beyond simply noting that it’s speculation.
I love the smell of desperation in the morning.
It may be wise not to make up your mind so fast. Flynn was on the hook for some serious stuff, and is unlikely Mueller would let that go for help with a nebulous Logan Act violation.
But, even if you believe it’s only related to that December contact, that begs the question of what Trump offered Putin. There can be separate December collusion in addition or instead of campaign collusion.
Nor that collusion matters. We’ve been over it a hundred times, but collusion is a description, not a crime.
I’ve discussed this earlier (or possibly in the Pit thread). This is not necessarily correct. Plea deals are based on what the prosecutors (and defense) think can be proved in court, not based on people might be speculating about on message boards and the like.
In addition, lying to the FBI is probably more serious than much of whatever else Flynn was likely to be charged with. As noted, the Logan Act itself is a very shaky charge. And FARA issues are pretty shaky too. They too are very rarely prosecuted, of ambiguous nature, and widely honored in the breach. (Plots to turn over Gulen sound more serious, but I’m guessing actual evidence on that is pretty thin.)
I agree.
However, IMO it’s unlikely that Trump would have offered anything specific. Because all he would have to do is direct Flynn to say something like “we know that the Obama administration has taken a hard line but when Trump takes office he is going to turn over a new leaf in our relationship, and it would be a good idea to hold off on taking concrete steps which could affect the US-Russia relationship until Trump takes office next week/month”.
Besides for Trump not having to do any more than the above (and it being much easier than coming up with a specific deal at that point in time), I should also note that Flynn’s conversations with the Russians were recorded and have been known to investigators for a long time, and were reported on in the media. If Flynn offered a quid pro quo in those conversations, it’s extremely unlikely that this particular detail would have not leaked out by now.
Also means all of this was known before they said Flynn was fired for “lying”. Pence and Jared and Sessions are all fucked. Trump will probably snake out punishment somehow but not b/c he is innocent.
So, speculation is only ok if you do it? Gotcha.
Speculation is OK if anyone does it, as long as you recognize that it’s speculation and don’t delude yourself into thinking it’s anything more than that. It’s that last part which many people in this thread are having such a hard time with.
… because we have been proven wrong so many times. It’s why this thread continues, all speculation, no news!
Now Bloomberg is reporting that Kushner told Flynn to contact Russia.
From JohnT’s cite:
That goes hand in hand not to make up your mind too soon. You’re speculating that the most serious thing they had on Flynn, a guy who was being paid by a foreign country to kidnap someone, is lying to the FBI. I dunno, but it doesn’t seem like a winning bet.
And also seems to be betting that they’re just flipping Flynn to get people on Logan Act charges. As if Mueller would give Flynn this kind of sweetheart deal for anything other than major damaging testimony/evidence about people above him. Which is pretty much just Pence and Trump. Maybe you can put Kush and Sessions in that mix also but they were more lateral to Flynn.
Yeah, for the record, if anyone wants to construct a bet that this whole issue ends with only a Logan Act conviction, I’m very willing to take that action.
Now is when things start to get really dangerous. Now is when Trump starts to spin out in earnest. A status hearing is set for Flynn’s sentencing in February. Scary what Trump might do between now and then in his efforts to thwart the investigation. I reckon.
And sounds like that’s just a placeholder date and it can be pushed back as needed as things move along. They don’t have to sentence Flynn anytime soon.
Flynn pleads guilty. Agrees to cooperate with investigation.
Wonder where this will go?
It is. Status hearings are regularly set for exactly the reason their name implies: “How are we doing? Are we ready to go on to sentencing yet?” There may be many, many more.
On the bright side, I think Mueller appreciates better than anyone on the planet that in this matter, time is of the essence.
I also think Mueller already has/had enough on Trump to proceed, but Flynn is the shortcut. By getting Flynn to flip, Mueller can circumvent a whole lot of other legal process that would draw the investigation out much longer.
Could Trump pardon Flynn now to keep him quiet?
Just opinions, but the pardon option was discussed by jayjay in Post #3056 and by me in Post #3073.