Not directly related to Trump or his people, but an article about how Gates was slapped with lying to the FBI during his plea testimony makes me think that Mueller is trying to pull in Dana Rohrabacher, since it was about a conversation with him that Gates was accused of lying.
I don’t agree with this constant speculation that Mueller must be out to get this guy or that guy. I don’t see any reason to assume that Mueller is trying to do anything other than what he was hired to do - get to the bottom of the facts and prosecute any wrongdoing he finds. If he finds a guy lying about a meeting with so-and-so then he’s going to indict the guy for lying about that meeting, regardless of whether he has any intention of getting so-and-so or not.
On another note, the WSJ is now reporting that Sessions says that Horowitz (the DOJ IG) will also investigate the FISA application issue. (Per that source, “The inspector general’s investigation into the FISA process doesn’t appear to be an offshoot of its Clinton probe but comes in response to a referral by Mr. Sessions shortly after the Republican memo was released.”)
For once I agree with you. Mueller is trying to get to the truth. This is the answer to a lot of, “Why is Mueller… ?” type questions.
Q: Why is Mueller putting pressure on Manafort?
A: In furtherance of his scheme to get to the truth.
Q: Why is Mueller dropping charges against Gates?
A: In furtherance of his scheme to get to the truth.
Etc.
This however is the real nothingburger. How many indictments do you think will come out of this investigation? How many guilty pleas?
Hint: zero and zero.
Sort of. What you say is true, but at the same time you’ll notice that the FBI doesn’t just arbitrarily smack people with a lying offense, unless they think it’s preventing them from being able to continue pursuing their investigation and that it is covering a likely crime.
If they were angered by Gates lying about Rohrabacher, then it does imply that they have suspicions around him and are investigating him.
Yes, they’re not going to prosecute him for anything minus sufficient evidence, but I’m just surprised that they care about him at all, given how far he is from the Trump campaign (which was their mandate).
Unless you can think of an alternate reason for the Mueller team to care about conversations between Gates and Rohrabacher other than that they have a belief that there may be a “truth” in that direction worth getting to, I’m not feeling too bad about my verbiage.
Are you arguing that he wouldn’t make deals with someone to get someone higher up?
Right.
There’s still for discussion of precisely what truth a given action is trying to get to, and how that action gets to that truth. But I don’t see any basis for the speculation that there are these various complicated schemes when the simpler explanation is that he’s indicting this guy because he thinks this guy violated the law, and so on.
I wouldn’t expect any indictments, let alone guilty pleas. This was primarily about a prior discussion I’ve been having with Sage Rat.
I think the FBI would view any question that they ask anyone as being about pursuing their investigation, and would prosecute anyone who lied to them about it. (Especially if they’re already prosecuting this same guy anyway for a bunch of other stuff.)
I assume he would. All prosecutors do that. But I also think he might make deals with people simply in order to get a guilty plea. All prosecutors do that too.
I assume he wouldn’t agree to a plea deal if the guy refuses to cooperate with the investigation, including a frank discussion of the role of anyone else involved, whether higher up or not. Absolutely. But the important point is that the fact that Mueller has agreed to a plea deal with someone is not an indication that he believes that there’s someone else that he intends to get via this guy’s cooperation. All it means is that he’s going to get this guy’s conviction, plus he’s that much closer to getting to the bottom of the story, whatever that is.
[As it happens, in this case the issue wasn’t Gates’ plea deal but what he was charged with to begin with. But the same applies in any event.]
All you have to do is look at the Enron prosecution to know that he works his way up the ladder with deals.
There was someone on the Clinton side of things - not Clinton herself, but someone on her team - that seems to have lied to them, and the FBI passed on charging them.
I believe, though I wouldn’t swear, that I have read similar elsewhere that they don’t simply charge people for small crimes in general, like if they find out that a person is a pot user, unless it’s as part of a plea agreement, or to put pressure on the person.
Gates was also very much involved in the Trump campaign. I tend to think that Rohrabacher would be another small fish compared to things Gates could tell them about campaign operations, and that Mueller is looking more at the latter as far as applying pressure is concerned.
I feel like I should add that, as I understand it, taking things to court is actually really really expensive. I don’t know in the case of a regular criminal trial, but the numbers I saw in relation to death penalty court cases are simply jaw dropping. And even just hiring a lawyer for an hour or two can be insanely expensive.
Charging someone with a crime isn’t just writing down a statute on a slip of paper, and the suspect’s address, it’s potentially 10s or 100s of thousands of dollars to take through criminal proceedings.
At the end of the day, Mueller has a budget and he also has limitations in terms of human resources and hours in the day.
In the case of Gates, maybe tagging on another criminal count doesn’t matter too much, if he thinks he’s going to go through most of the process anyways. But if he’s asking questions about Rohrabacher, then he’s considering splitting his finances and manpower for yet another whole new investigation and all of the costs associated with it. I feel like that’s not something you do lightly. And even with the pre-existing charges against Gates, I suspect that there is still some extra cost for prosecuting the extra charge, even if it’s only in the $10k range rather than the $100k.
It’s still a lot of donuts.
Anyone seen the latest reports: Mueller’s current line of questioning is:
*
Investigators for special counsel Robert Mueller have recently been asking witnesses about Donald Trump’s business activities in Russia prior to the 2016 presidential campaign as he considered a run for president*
Reminds me: I need some popcorn…
20 times Trump colluded with the Russians (Twitter thread, per Seth Abramson)
ThreadReader is a good way to follow Twitter threads. Here is the same thread from Seth.
With the caveat that everyone he works a deal on was guilty of something significant, and the perp knew it.
It’s not like Enron folks that rolled over were innocent or not guilty. Just like Gates.
Well this is going in a rather different direction than the thread title would indicate, but it does look serious:
I think that it’s not surprising that Trump had corrupt dealings with as many countries as he could manage.
I’d also guess that Mueller’s greatest challenge is not finding wrongdoing, but the sheer breadth, depth, and scale of it.
Hypothetically, if Putin has something on Trump… a trade war could be his way of cashing in before Trump is out. Of the great powers, Russia is by far the one least involved in international trade, and it would damage Russias competitors in their strongest advantage.
Why on Earth does anyone still redact documents by using a black magic marker on a piece of paper? All documents are handled electronically nowadays, and it’s trivially easy to redact electronic documents in a way that leaves no clue as to what was there originally.
Are you sure that another savvy tech guy couldn’t just come along and electronically remove the redacting?
That’s what I think, too. People have so much trouble accepting it because grasping the sheer, staggering scope of the corruption and criminal activity is a massive challenge. It’s complicated and difficult to follow. In true American fashion, people want their traitors served up like a Snidley Whiplash villain. This is so much worse.
It’s pleasing to learn Mueller is drilling down on that Seychelles meeting. Knew it was dirty, but I’m kind of shocked to see where it’s leading.