Somewhat related to the Republican party’s hunt to determine the genesis of the FBI investigation into the President, but I just thought that I would suggest the obvious answer:
Trump was already under investigation by the Southern District of New York of the Department of Justice before ever entering the primaries.
Paul Manafort was already under investigation by the FBI (and probably the CIA).
Michael Cohen was already under investigation by the Southern District of New York of the Department of Justice.
Carter Page was already under investigation by the FBI (and probably the CIA).
Let us suggest that the barrier of entry for kicking off an investigation was very low when this particular assemblage of people formed itself. (And I’ll note that I wouldn’t be surprised if Roger Stone and Michael Flynn weren’t already under investigation as well.)
The DoJ and FBI do a pretty good job of keeping things buttoned up, in general. I suspect that most of the Russia investigation leaks were from Schiff, trying to force his Committee to investigate the things he wanted to investigate.
In end result, probably all he did was help spread information that Mueller would have wanted to keep secret.
It was all entertaining for us, to be sure, and it does all need to get into the public at some point, but I actually wish we knew less about what all Trump, his family, and his friends had gotten up to during the election if it meant that they’d be more likely to be prosecuted for it.
On the other hand, due to the leaks, we have counters to the barrage of inane ‘Mueller has nothing, close it down’ calls that emanate continuously from the Trump-defenders. If there had been no leaks, we’d have had only abstract defenses against the dopey claims. (E.g. ‘just because an ongoing investigation isn’t making its findings public, doesn’t mean it has no findings.’)
Also, it will be useful for the midterms. I highly doubt that Mueller will make the same mistake a Comey did and make major revelations before the election.
Watching the polls during the 2016 campaign, you could see the numbers for Trump plummet every time he actually broke into the eye of the general, non-politically minded public; the debates, the pussy grabbing tape, etc. And then, two weeks later, the numbers would start to go up again and the candidates would be on even footing again.
People don’t remembered or care about things that happened more than 2 weeks ago. People like a horse race and will support a bad person just to support the underdog, because their family and friends are for it, etc.
There is exactly a two week window during which negative information about Trump is useful, during the Midterms, and that’s the two weeks leading into the Midterm vote. Everything before that, really, just gives your opponents the chance to lay the groundwork to defend everything and to find the responses that work with the general public.
And, it also gives them the same chance to get their defense set and strengthened legally as well. Mueller has a harder time cracking the nut when everyone can read everyone else’s testimony online.
I haven’t read it yet either, but I’m seeing some comments on Twitter from various reporters and others. *Politico *reporter Elana Schor tweeted about an email from Anthony Scaramucci to Rob Goldstone (the publicist who helped set up the Trump Tower meeting) just after Scaramucci became Communications Director. Scaramucci said, in part:
Which sounds exactly like something a person innocent of wrongdoing would say.
Bottom line, IMO, is that the considerable speculation - here and elsewhere - that substantive plotting took place at this meeting has not panned out. Beyond the actual information released, the statement from the Senate Democrats - which focuses on what the meeting shows about the Trump people’s mindset - is an implicit acknowledgement that there’s nothing more substantive than that, IMHO.
Funny how the Senate Intelligence Committee’s findings contradict the Devin Nunes (cough I mean House Intelligence) Committee’s findings. And they’re both Republican-majority. Imagine that.
The meeting itself is already problematic. Junior was looking to collude, and has admitted as much publicly. Whether or not he was able to doesn’t change anything. The statutes or precedent for conspiracy charges are based on a) talking about doing something illegal, and b) taking a concrete step in furtherance of the act.
The explanations they have given conflict with Manafort’s notes from the meeting. Between testimony given months later, after much time to coordinate stories, and a contemporaneous written document on the substance of the meeting, the document has a stronger evidentiary basis.
It’s not at all clear that getting opposition research is illegal, and if it’s not then conspiring to do it would not be an issue. And the fact that Junior was looking to do this has been known for some time. My point was that at the time and since there has been considerable speculation that some actual info changed hands, then or later, possibly DNC emails, or possibly some other form of coordination of a much more serious nature. (I have a vague recollection that you yourself speculated something along those lines, but I could be confusing you with someone else here.) The evidence here seems pretty consistent that everyone involved on the Trump side thought the meeting was a waste of time pretty early on, which seems inconsistent with the notion that this was (part of) a broader and more sinister collusion effort.
I believe everyone acknowledges that the hook used to entice the Trump people was the notion that the lawyer had some hot incriminating info about the Clinton campaign and/or DNC. The Trump story has been - since the DTjr emails were released - that it became obvious early on that this wasn’t going to pan out. The Manafort notes seem consistent with this, with his jotting down a bunch of terms used early on in the meeting, before it became apparent that she was just jiving and couldn’t back up any of the innuendoes she was tossing out.
Some of the other evidence is also contemporaneous, e.g. text messages from Goldstone and Kushner expressing disgust with the meeting. (I’ve not seen these quoted from an independent source, but my assumption is that the Senate would have accessed these and would have reported on it had they lied about it.)
It is abundantly clear that secretly cooperating with someone representing the Russian government’s effort to aid the Trump campaign to get opposition research is collusion. Collusion, after all, means secret cooperation.
Opposition research is not illegal, even if collected by a foreign person. But, receiving gifted opposition research from a foreign person is (probably) illegal.
There is also the issue that he was specifically seeking and expecting to get hacked emails. Hacking comes under the heading of an illegal wiretap (apparently). From what I can tell, the rules around receiving hacked materials are a bit context dependent.
If a media organization, for example, is sent hacked goods, that’s alright. They can go ahead and post those and there is no issue.
If, on the other hand, the media organization requests that a person perform a hack and send them the info, then that is a crime. There seems to be fair evidence (including public speeches from Trump himself) that the Trump campaign was actively promoting the idea that people should hack into Hillary Clinton’s computers and publicize her private correspondences. That is promotion of an illegal activity. Promoting that and then going to try and collect on it is, clearly, not kosher.