Shit sure seems to be snowballing the past few days.
'member when presidential pardons were discussed near the end of a president’s term?
Same thing here.
He may not be the worst businessman in the world, but I feel like he’s the worst poker player in the world. He’d have a million tells, including just straight out telling you his hand.
That’s because impeachment is not a legal process, but a political one. The “high crimes and misdemeanors” stuff is to put a veneer of civilization on the political gladiatorial arena.
Doesn’t a pardon carry an acknowledgement of guilt? I seem to recall Bricker saying something to that effect.
Well, potentially, but I think strictly speaking, Trump’s term runs until January, 2021. If he’s removed by impeachment or resignation or death or whatever, Pence assumes the presidency until that time. I understand there was some debate in 1841 whether or not John Tyler (having assumed the office of president after the death of William Henry Harrison) would only be acting president until a new election could be held. Nothing was done, though, and Tyler served until 1845, i.e. until the end of what would have been Harrison’s term, had he lived. As far as I know, that effectively ended the notion of an emergency presidential election outside the established four-year schedule.
I could see the Trump administration ending fairly soon, but arguably the term will last until the 2021 inauguration.
This is just a moment of pedantic outburst, pay it no mind.
Just attempting levity.
I know, and I appreciate it, but the more I thought about it, the more the “term”/“administration” distinction nagged at me and I’m too obsessive-compulsive to let it slide.
I’m really bad at this prediction stuff, but it feels like a showdown is coming and this is going to resolved one way or the other. I feel this way because it seems like Trump is going to the “nuclear option” so to speak, and I feel like he wouldn’t go there unless badly pressed upon. I think we’ll see him say that he’s only considering these pardons because the “fake Russia witch hunt is an unfair distraction from his efforts to MAGA” (or something along those lines). But of course this is ridiculous. If he really is considering pardons there’s pretty much only one reason. It should be an interesting next couple of months. But again, I’m almost always wrong on these things so bet against me. 
I’m pretty sure if any of this cast of characters is found to have violated any state laws they could be prosecuted despite any Presidential pardons.
I imagine the Attorney General of New York is paying close attention to all of this. Possibly a few other state AGs as well.
Yeah, I think that the president can only pardon on a federal level. He can’t pardon on a state level. He can ask/pressure the governor of the state to do it, but I don’t think that the government is obligated to do so.
Paul Begala on CNN:
“If you’re in a foxhole with Trump, write a will.”
Rep Joaquin Castro, who’s on the intelligence committee, mentioned last night that someone high up in the administration will most likely be arrested.
Lead attorney has resigned now too.
Mueller could continue his investigation if he doesn’t get fired by Trump. But if Trump is willing to go to the point of pardoning everyone, then he’s also likely to fire Mueller.
I think if Trump succeeds in attracting public support for his claim that Mueller has exceeded his mandate and is on a fishing expedition etc., then there’s a good chance he goes this route. Otherwise, not so much. But you never know with this group. These are the guys who genuinely thought firing Comey would be well received by Democrats and the public at large.
I agree with the point someone made above about state charges. I would assume that if Trump does this type of thing he will be attacked from all sides by Democratic AGs in various states. I don’t know whether a sitting president can be indicted by a state AG. But certainly his associates can, and his corporate entities can as well.
I don’t think the resignation of members of the Trump legal team is particularly significant. It’s been widely reported that Trump has a very hard time attracting high quality legal talent, both because of his unpopularity in legal circles, and because of his tendency to ignore and undercut his legal team. (Also - I’ve been told by people who know people familiar with him in the past - because he doesn’t pay his bills.) But the particular resignations at this time seem more connected to specifics of these individuals.
I suspect that Trump already, long ago decided to fire Robert Mueller - probably the moment that he was reassured by at least one attorney that he actually had the constitutional power to do so and maybe even without such assurances. He’s just been waiting for when the moment feels right.
The one interesting point that I read is that pardoning a person requires an admission of guilt, and removes fifth amendment protection, but not future prosecution from perjury. A pardoned Jared Kushner who can’t plead the fifth would have to testify, and that might not be a good thing for Mr. Trump.
That sounds somewhat familiar. 
Yeah, but the fifth amendment issue is not obvious (at least wasn’t to me!). Pardoned Trump people would be forced to testify and perjury would still be on the table. Pardoning people would mean Trump would have to trust that the pardoned people will still lie for him under penalty of perjury (unless he really was out of the loop, which is hard to believe).