I agree they are a lost cause, and that they likely comprise 25% of voters. But doesn’t their irrelevance depend on whether there’s a primary challenge?
OK, so most incumbents don’t get challenged in the primary election. But a few of course do. And then there are the districts where the Dem incumbent is seen as vulnerable.
25% of the voting public means roughly half of Pubs, no? So to win the primary, a candidate likely needs to get the Trumpist vote. It’s got to be easier I would think to get a couple percent of the non-Trumpists to vote for you if you support Trump than to get a couple percent of the Trumpists to vote for you if you come out against him.
No candidate in a contested primary spends much time worrying about chances of victory in the general election.
"But that isn’t my question. Since Republicans hold the majority in the House, which is where Impeachment happens, how will the President be impeached? What evidence is there that the 24 GOP House members needed to pass articles of impeachment exist? "
And this
“And what case law supports the position that issuing a pardon could result in an obstruction charge? The constitution reads to me at least that POTUS has pretty broad authority in issuing pardons. I will agree the self-pardon is probably a pipe dream.”
You are assuming the president can solve all his problems with pardons, and then it’s all just a little reset or something for him and dictatorship under republican rule for the rest of us. You also say that there is no legal implications against donald for the pardons. By this I take you to be saying these implications “don’t matter.” What sterile petri dish are you looking at? My cites refute this.
Republican politicians do not care about constituents who are not from their own party. Gerrymandering has resulted in districts so safe that Representatives are only worried about winning a primary. And they need the 25% crazy Trump voters to do that. So they will do nothing to piss them off.
Let’s say that 50% of voters in a district are Republican, 20% independent, 30% Democrat. Half of the Republican voters are crazed Trumpistas. This means that you really only need 26% of the voters to win a primary, and thus the election.
The other 74% of their constituents are really unimportant, as long as you can get the support of the 26% that matter. And those 26% thing that Trump is the victim of a witch hunt, and is the best thing ever.
Note; I am not saying “never mind, there is nothing to be done”
I am saying - Don’t count on Republican politicians to remotely do the right thing if Trump pardons everyone and fires Mueller. There will need to be TREMENDOUS pressure on the part of the 74% who will absolutely disagree with this. Everybody will need to do something, because the politicians won’t. Massive, street level protests in front of every congressional local office. Day after day. Solidarity-level protests. Shut-downs and strikes. Whatever it takes. Because only the people have the power to do anything at this point. Their representatives are cowards.
On election day this may be true. My point is about all of the other days. There are pressures being brought to bear on republicans even as we speak, by dems, socialists, independents and others, and not at the ballot box.
I’m not counting on anything. But I think an examination of exactly what would happen if this historical event were to occur is on the front burner right now for us to deal with. And this cannot be simply “They do whatever we don’t want. There are no forces acting on them except evil. They are super villains.” It is about actual events.
We are in a bubble, like a market bubble. No one here really can predict what the tolerance level is for any single republican for the goldfish’s antics, much less the party as a group. When you are in it it seems like it’s going to go on forever. That’s why the bubble happens.
Ruefully admitting that using reason to speculate on the actions of irrational people is clumsy on a good day…nonetheless! How many of the rock solid Trumpies will crumble when they find out that they are the ones who are going to take it in the shorts? They don’t know because it hasn’t happened yet, they don’t because they have been lied to and believe that their lives will get better now. Better!
And if there’s any way we could actually stop this turd avalanche from crashing down on them, we should, of course. Even though they won’t believe that’s what happened, we still have to. If they hate our guts for helping them, we still have to.
Beg Michelle to run. Beseech, implore, entreaty, whatever it takes. Wish I had a better plan, but I don’t. Be happy to hear yours.
I said it was possible but until a case like this goes to court we don’t know. So again, nope, I didn’t say what you claim.
I suggest you go read your cites again as they only say prosecution would be a possibility, which I already acknowledged. Your second cite says if he accepted money in return for a pardon that would be corruption and I absolutely agree with that.
I’ve already invited you to provide an instance of an elected official being charged with obstruction or some other type of corruption for a pardon they have granted. You’ve yet to offer a single example.
As I said, if the President issued pardons to all the people involved in this investigation it is possible a future administration could pursue legal action against him. I also said it would be likely to end up in the courts with no guarantee how it would turn out. I stand by that.
Kolak, you said this: "But that isn’t my question. Since Republicans hold the majority in the House, which is where Impeachment happens, how will the President be impeached? What evidence is there that the 24 GOP House members needed to pass articles of impeachment exist?
And what case law supports the position that issuing a pardon could result in an obstruction charge? The constitution reads to me at least that POTUS has pretty broad authority in issuing pardons. I will agree the self-pardon is probably a pipe dream."
Then what are you saying will happen when and if he pardons his gang? You’re just saying “He will never be impeached” but keeping your powder dry on all the ramifications of this that might occur while our democracy is hanging in the balance? I though that’s what we were addressing.
As soon as he pardons a co-conspirator in a crime it’s already corruption, which means as soon as he uses the pardon period. This most certainly is not limited to “accepting money” for the pardon.
Sadly, I expect an infinitesimal amount. CNN interviews Trump voters periodically, usually in rural areas (duh)…which implies to me that the vast majority of them are the 25%. I’d estimate that I’ve seen around 100 of them that have answered interviewers’ questions. In all that time I’ve seen exactly one (1) that expressed the slightest doubt of Trump, and that one doubt was that Trump had allowed the ‘witch hunt’ to distract him from advancing his agenda. It’s not worth the resources necessary to convert them. If they do it themselves through mistakenly clicking on MSNBC and actually reading it or something, great. Otherwise, it’s a waste of time.
This is my original post on this topic in this thread:
Several others have made similar points here - for impeachment to happen it will require GOP votes and the GOP leadership will have to allow the vote to take place. Since 2008 at the least the GOP has made it clear it’s party over country as far as they are concerned. I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the behavior of Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell to indicate they have changed that way of thinking. There are a handful of GOP senators who seem bothered by some of what we know but I’m not aware of a single GOP member of the House who has wavered from the Trump line that this is Fake New and a witch hunt.
Given that, how does impeachment even happen? If he pardons all his cronies I don’t see anything happening that will call him to account for his actions while in office. What might happen down the road with a new Administration isn’t going to help us now.
Others have pointed out much the same thing, possibly better than I have.
Sorry I had this in mind that Euphonius had posted when I was writing: “Trump issues blanket pardons to Manafort, Trump Jr., Flynn, Sessions, Tillerson, Kushner, and any other person who spoke to any Russians at any time for any purpose on behalf of the Trump campaign. Period. Done. They are pardoned, and that is that.”
But as far as what you are saying: You can’t project 5 minutes into a future where the goldfish does this completely historic thing overturning all of our norms, except to say that Ryan and McConnell have not broken face, yet?
After this happens nobody ever just has had enough? Nobody flips or turns, nobody breaks the silence, the media doesn’t report, nobody demonstrates…? I just feel like you’re stuck in an eternal present. If this happens things will be changing fast.
OK what do you think will be the upshot? Do you imagine he could pardon everyone, leave himself out of it, and continue to govern the country? I just can’t. Doing it would be inculpating from the very moment it happened. How does this not change the world we are trying to describe here?
I feel like maybe people have been so beaten down they have forgotten we are not in a totalitarian state, at least yet.
Every single lever of democracy is held by someone who, thus far, has shown an utter unwillingness to notice the utter cluelessness of the current president. Every single person who could possibly make a move towards impeaching or removing Trump is clearly motivated by the ability to push their legislative agenda far more than the reality that the president knows fucking nothing and has made the country an absolute laughingstock across the globe (when we’re not too busy crying, anyways).
What changes? What honestly changes? Does the republican base suddenly wise up? Over half of them have doubts that Trump Jr. met with the Russians! You know, after Trump Jr. tweeted out confirmation! Do the incentives change for the republicans in congress? Well, if the base hasn’t wised up, then they’re screwed if they impach, and if the base has wised up, they’re unlikely to win either way. And if you think the base is likely to wise up, then you’re going to be extremely disappointed.
It doesn’t matter that you are not in a totalitarian state if no person in charge is willing to put country before party.
Ok but this is all describing these peoples response to a black swan event. A moving target described as a static painting. I’m not there. I just don’t think that’s all that’s happening right now. Not everyone is dependent on or working for that base. We will have to see. I certainly think the country is bigger than the goldfish.
Do you seriously wish to characterize whatever the fuck he’s doing now as “governing the country?”
'Cos I don’t think that would be a valid characterization at all. And I can certainly imagine him taking those actions and then continuing with the same hapless meandering he’s been up to for the past six months.
Lots of Republican talking heads are anti-Trump; many were anti-Trump before he won the nomination. It can’t have been easy to get Glenn Beck to turn against the Republican nominee for President, but he flipped faster than a quarter.
What matters is whether or not Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell will turn against him, and I’m sorry but there is NO evidence they will.
I get the sense, dd, that you’re stuck in an eternal 2014. Everyone else is acknowledging that things are changing; you’re the one who refuses to accept change. You’re assuming that things are the way, historically, that they have been; that the unofficial norms of U.S. democracy are as people generally assumed they were for many decades (or far longer, depending on the specific tradition.)
I’m sorry, but I do not believe that is the case. We’re entering a new phase of U.S. political history, which for want of a better term I’ll keep calling “Post-Truth.” As recently as ten or twenty years ago, political disagreement in the USA was either over a different in one’s priorities or interpretation of facts, or the importance assigned to given facts. Now the disagreement is over the existence of fact itself, with the right being the side that largely has chosen to embrace fiction as fact.
Trump holding a pardon fiesta this week or next is an irreversible thing; no one can stop him, and the only solution is impeachment. Congress will not impeach if he does it, and this IS a bet I’ll happily make with you. The fact that such an act would be a monstrous abuse of power would certainly have mattered if, say, Ronald Reagan or Jimmy Carter had done it. Probably if W. or Obama had done it. It will not matter now; the Republican agenda is more important to the Republicans than the law is. More important, it’s more important to their voters. Jim from Chattanooga does not care, and more importantly does not want to know, the nuances of what a pardon means, or whether it’s appropriate; he wants tariffs raised, Christianity promoted, and gay people punished.
Not only do I not think a pardon party will hurt Trump, I actually think it will help him; I think his approval ratings will tick up a bit. It is clear that part of Trump’s appeal is that he appeals to the authoritarian streak in people. A lot of people, in every country, do not like the uncertainly and complication and nuance of constitutional democracy; what they like is the idea that a strong man will take charge and fix things. That’s how a completely unqualified idiot got the support of almost half the voting base; he appealed to them as a strongman who’d fix all the problems. That is a really broadly appealing thing; we are seeing whole countries give up elements of democracy to strongmen today (Turkey, Poland) and we have seen it in the past and will see it again in the future. That’s what Trump taps into and I honestly think a zillion pardons and firing Mueller would be popular because it looks strong and decisive. His declining approval ratings are, if anything, due to the fact that so far he has looked weak. His agenda has failed, in public fashion, again and again; he lost many times on the travel bad, has lost publically and spectacularly on health care, and the Russia scandal makes him look weak because it won’t go away; even if the Trumpist does not believe it, the fact he cannot stop it is not strong. Stopping it is very strong; after the pardons are signed and Mueller is dismissed, Trump will look powerful. It will be a Win. And Republicans will love it; they won, hooray, we’re winners.
We could get further and further into this - we could talk about how the GOP has been openly, shamelessly working for a long time on preventing black people from voting, and how somehow that has generated zero outrage among their supporters and what that means. But I’ll shorten it to this; Political trends to come and go but you can’t seriously tell me they come and go in a couple of months. Post-Truth has been in the works for years and it has years left in it.