Trump can't win

[Measure_for_Measure]

@CarnalK

I really don’t know what you’re talking about. I don’t particularly “like what they say” and you are the first time I’ve had someone tell me I shouldn’t trust them.

(hijack) The criticisms I’ve read about Politico is that they are big on horserace journalism. In other words their reporting is awful, though not unusual. Decent horserace analysis needs to be statistically numerate: for that visit 538, the NYT’s Upshot, Charlie Cook or others. For policy, visit Vox.com.

[john_L]

@Trinopus

I’d add number four, Clinton melts down in the debates. Trump might needle her just enough for her to snap and say something unguarded. Certainly, this is unlikely – so are points 1, 2, and 3. But it’s something that could happen, and would definitely give the s.o.b. a boost.

yep , will be hard for even media hype to change 1st debate results , unless there’s no clear winner.

[JKellyMap]

@Princhester

I agree with you. I think he’s just out of his depth. All of us who have been here a long time have come across newbie posters who are used to arguing orally and think they can say something early on in an argument and then pretend they never said it later on. Doesn’t work too well on a message board.

I think that Trump is used to something similar. He’s used to being able to say whatever he needs to say in closed business meetings to sell something, then being able to say something else entirely in another closed business meeting to sell something else.

This doesn’t work so well when you have cameras and microphones following you around all the time, comparing what you said at one moment to what you said to another, and taking the crowd-pleasing bigoted comments you made to a room of cheering rednecks and broadcasting those comments to Mexicans and blacks and women.

He’s out of his depth. And what’s more he is proving to be a one trick pony; allhe has is a talent for reading a room and saying whatever it takes to please it. He can’t seem to moderate that to account for his need to generate wider appeal outside that room, to win an election.

Excellent post.

[coremelt]

@Blue_Max

3. Some lunatic shoots Hillary. Didn’t work out so well for the democrats when someone shot RFK, did it?

Considering Clinton has a huge amount of baggage and Tim Kaine seems to be a moderately well respected politician in the extremely unlikely event some lone nut kills Clinton it would almost certainly lead to a larger win for the dems. Hillary doesn’t really have a cult of personality going, she’s a competent and experienced administrator and politican and thats it really.

[Biffster]

An interesting thread from a little over eight years ago. Has anything changed?

[Locrian]

Yep. Trump is considered a possible winner for the GOP now. Unlike in 2016, as most of us thought (me included).

[bordelond]

@Biffster

An interesting thread from a little over eight years ago. Has anything changed?

(my emphasis)

We can start a list:

1. Dobbs decision
2. Trump has a presidential track record now - see also 2020 election