Do you think a 3rd party candidate will win even one electoral vote this year? I haven’t looked, it doesn’t sound like either Green or Libertarian is really catching on yet. It’s not like the Perot phenomena, or even Anderson or Wallace who left the main stream parties to form their own. Maybe November voters will drift but I get the feeling now that voters will stay home or vote against a candidate. That’s not based on any real data though. It will be interesting to look at how the minor players do this year after the convention. I’d think their best hope is in the youth vote that doesn’t feel disenfranchised as much as they haven’t felt franchised yet.
I’m wondering where the numbers will be once there are actual debates between the two candidates.
Impossible to predict, since the voters won’t be judging the debates by who has the most intelligent arguments or the best knowledge of policy. They’ll be judging based on who they think is more honest, less scripted, and more directly addresses their top concerns.
I’m not sure there will be debates this year. I think both candidates want them, but only on their own terms. They may never be able to agree on a common format. I don’t care personally, I don’t consider them debates. They’re more about the media now than the candidates anyway. We don’t need the media asking biased questions, just let the candidates speak, which they will do anyway.
Oh, there will be debated if the race is still close. I think they both have utmost confidence that they can dominate the other and they are probably both right. Clinton will dominate Trump intellectually and Trump will dominate her on getting to the point and seeming more straightforward and authentic.
Then whoever proposes reasonable terms gets to crow about the cowardice of her opponent, who was too afraid to go one-on-one if X and Y and Z. She can just keep banging away on that, every day, every week, clear and simple and unobjectionable stuff, and what is he hiding from?
Sure, that won’t work if one of the terms is a little dubious. It won’t work if there’s even a hint of Well-I’m-Not-Sure-I’d-Agree-To-That. But hit it straight up the middle and win in the court of public opinion by default.
The debate dates, times, locations and formats have already been set. There are three Presidential debates and one Vice Presidential debate.
Which is SOP and has been for some time now.
Clinton is only "unelectable " because of two decades of lies put out by Karl Rove & co.
Half of which the Bernie campaign helped promulgate.
No one is gonna try and throw out the huge margin Clinton received in the popular vote. There’d be riots.
How deep is her support, really? Is there any person here on this board who would actually be enraged if Biden was nominated?
Yawn. It’s a non issue, and replacing HRC isn’t going to happen. I’m surprised you keep finding people who will gladly chase you down this rabbit hole.
If there was some legitimate reason (e.g. Hillary keels over), I’d be fine with it. But just for the hell of it, rejecting all the voting that happened? I’d be pissed, and so would almost all Democrats. The primaries should be respected, unless there’s an overwhelming reason (like a dead/dying candidate) to pick a different path.
Which doesn’t mean jack, seeing as how with the right marketing you could convince the public to gargle with floor cleaner.
I would think that losing to Donald freakin’ Trump would be a pretty good reason to want a new candidate.
It’s interesting to note that in their long-term forecast Hillary still wins 53.5 to 46.5. That’s still a pretty decent win in Presidential Politics.
AND
That forecast is assuming Trump wins in FL, NC, OH, IA, NV and AZ. That’s a heavy lift and even that assumes a Trump loss by 15+ in the EV.
Gary Johnson does have a few of the smaller states where his support is not inconsiderable. The odds are against it but if Trump and Clinton are sufficiently covered in mud by November, and Johnson were to really work it hard in a place where he has a lot of support, like Montana, you never know.
Sure, spending a lot of his time chasing Montana’s 3 EVs would mean conceding that national aspirations are fictional. It would be a huge symbolic victory, though.
And you would think that your party overwhelmingly nominating Donald freakin’ Trump would be a pretty good reason to want a new party.
It’s too late for us, I called for the convention to reject Trump. Democrats don’t even have to change their rules to reject Clinton. This is what the superdelegates are for. Why have them at all if not for situations like this?
Yes, you dont ignore the voice of the people like that. Besides Karl Rove would simply turn the Biden hate machine on, full of lies, etc.