I’m not arguing that Trump’s supporters arent largely white people. I’m merely pointing out that, even among white people, his support is a mere fraction of the populace.
Check out the chart linked by KO above. Trump is NOT getting 63% of the white vote in PA, a swing state and one that is (to me, at least) bizarrely racist… yet it is white support that is going to put him over the edge?
The data does not prove your assertion that white people are going to vote for DJT in droves because we want to believe in some “myth”. So, again, dial it back.
There was a funny little bit on Full Frontal where they were interviewing people at the RNC. They were talking to a black attendee:
Guy:“We need to stop labeling everybody. Black lives; cop lives…”
Interviewer:“How many times have you been pulled over by police?”
[pause, guy forms slightly embarrassed smile]
Guy:“No comment”
Well if that post had lumped Whites as a monolithic group it would be worse than offensive: it would be wrong. But the reality is both that many subgroups of White demographics are against Trump even though they had been majority in favor of Romney and McCain, and that his support is mainly White.
Just look at the most recent NBC/WSJ poll’s cross-tabs for some details.
Trump loses college-educated Whites (the most reliable voting bloc) 47 to 40 (Romney won that demographic by 6, so a net change of 13!) while winning all Whites 45 to 40. You don’t need to be a statistician to realize that mean his non-college educated White margin is very large.
Marist has the White college educated margin at +12 Clinton and the White non-college educated +15 Trump.
Yet before one bemoans non-college educated Whites please recall that in 2012 the non-college educated White margin was +24 Romney.
My suspicion is that if anything current polling overestimates how well Trump is doing by overweighting the probability of White non-college educated voters to vote. And he losing all other demographics, some by overwhelming margins, some that Romney won handily, and in general by bigger margins than Romney lost by.
No offense, but unless I’ve violated the terms of service on this board, don’t tell me what to say or not say. If you disagree with something, just point out why you think I’m wrong.
I don’t think all white people are voting for Trump. I don’t think all who vote for Trump are necessarily white nationalists, but there is no question it is fueling his campaign. Otherwise he wouldn’t have smeared Muslims, the Khans, Mexicans, a federal judge, and others. You don’t do those things unless you think there’s a reward. And his continued popularity indicates incontrovertibly that racism is paying big dividends.
The only way Manafort can assert control over Trump is by locking him in the trunk of his car. And even then it would be like the scene in Goodfellas, with thumping and muffled cries of, “I’m just not there yet!”
JohnT, you absolutely do not have the right to tell another poster to ‘dial it back’. You may argue with them, even spiritedly. But you may not tell them what they can or can’t post. If they somehow offend you please report it.
That’s the thing. A lot of people seem to get their impressions from biased, highly edited comedy shows. That conceit could come back and bite us in the ass.
Let’s make fun of that one black guy. He’s so stupid! Everyone laugh at that one stupid black guy. We’ve got this election all sown up!
I hope we aren’t so conceited and self-assured we assume all non-white males are going to vote for Hillary because if we find some that aren’t, we’ll make fun of them so everyone knows how stupid they are.
This election reminds me of one of those wild college football bowl games in which there neither side has a defense. Whoever has the football last will probably win.
This election reminds me of the worst landing I ever made in a commercial plane. Every ghastly moment was a sphincter pucker. The weather was horrible and unpredictable; we were obviously flying on instruments, the plane was bumping and bouncing all over the place and none of the passengers were at all certain we were going to make the landing we so fervently desired.
The polling also doesn’t account for Trump’s lack of funding, and virtually non-existent ground game to get voters to the polls.
The die-hearts that voted for him in the primaries without a ground effort are only a small fraction of the votes that he will need to win in the general election.
I don’t assume that and do not get my impressions from comedy shows. All you have to do is look at polls to know he’s not getting 0% of the minority vote. But you surely know that he’s got an astoundingly poor favourable rating with Blacks. Like crazy bad. Back in June anyway, he polled a 94% unfavourable among Blacks compared to 79% positive for Clinton. So your complaints are a little on the pedantic side. He’s faring better on the Latino side but it’s still not good.
We get our impressions from poll numbers, not comedy shows. Those are just a bonus. Everyone was pretty freaked out for the couple days that the polls showed Trump ahead.
I take it as given Trump will get a similarly low to lower % of the non-white vote as Romney. The question is turn out. Traditionally it’s harder to turn out voters against something than for it. It’s not clear that Clinton can’t get high non-white turnout, but not clear she can, and might differ between blacks and Hispanics. As of now the race is again not particuarly close and she wouldn’t need especially high non-white turnout to win unless turnout in pro-Trump groups was shockingly high. But it’s a question if the race narrows, not a matter of the lip service by Trump supporters saying he’s going to get unusually strong black support % wise. No at all recent poll supports that view.
Same goes for white non-college. One reason to spin the race as over already from pro-Clinton POV is to turn those voters off so they don’t show up. But I don’t see how among all possibilities (ie including narrower polls come Nov) one can say RV polls (ie most of the current polls) are overestimating or underestimating white working class turnout. We know that how?
Want to put a spring in your step, and a smile on your face? Repeat after me: “The title of this thread is no longer true.” Try it first thing tomorrow morning, and it’s bound to help set the tone for a wonderful day!
I don’t watch those comedy shows. I get my news from mostly CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post. I also look deeply into the poll numbers. Once in a while I’ll watch something that someone posts that is funny from Oliver or Bee. I didn’t even know the one black guy made it into the routine (though it doesn’t surprise me).
Nor was I making fun of that one black guy. I was making fun of Trumps dismissiveness of his unpopularity with blacks by pointing out his one black guy at his rally.
OF COURSE some blacks will vote for Trump. However, every poll out there says his popularity with them isn’t great (there was a poll a while ago where the margin of error made it possible to get negative votes from black people - of course, that can’t happen, but that’s how unpopular he is).
We do not “know” it, but we strongly suspect it. Why?
As for me by playing with this 538 app. It starts off with 2012 turnout and share and you can dial up and down. Plugging the Marist numbers into that app would result in an 18 point Clinton margin if turnout was unchanged. (And an EV victory of 459 to 79 … no I don’t think so.) They get less than that because they dial up the White non-college educated turnout, and/or down Blacks and/or Hispanics turnout. If just by dialing the non-college educated vote up then to get that popular vote result it would need to go from 57% to 76% (!), same as college-educated Whites did last time around.
Is that extreme increase realistic to expect? Note that 54% of non-college educated Whites in that poll have an unfavorable opinion of Trump and only 39% positive (albeit 74% of that group views Clinton unfavorably).
Or maybe a wee bit less extreme of a non-college educated White turnout increase and they assume significantly less Black turnout?
So I do not know that their inflation of previous White non-college educated turnout is unrealistic, but it sure seems probable to me.